Showing posts with label Laffer curve. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Laffer curve. Show all posts

Tuesday, February 4, 2020

Trump’s trickle dries up — Michael Roberts

Well, Trump’s boast turned to dust in 2019. US GDP grew by 2.3% in 2019, well below President Trump’s promise of 3%+ growth. The most recent GDP number proved that the tax cuts championed by Trump had no sustained impact on US growth. Indeed , even the most optimistic forecasts see growth to stay well below 3% for the next few years. Of course, that won’t stop Trump in his State of the Union speech today in Congress proclaiming a huge rise in the living standards of working people under his reign. Actually, cumulative growth under Trump has been lower than under both Obama and Bush Jnr.
Michael Roberts explains why.

Michael Roberts Blog — blogging from a marxist economist
Trump’s trickle dries up
Michael Roberts

Sunday, August 5, 2018

Jared Bernstein — Trump 2020 game plan: Fake Laffer, Go Keynes.


Summary and implications of Goldman Sachs economic research team forecast.
On the Economy
Trump 2020 game plan: Fake Laffer, Go Keynes.Jared Bernstein | Senior Fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and former Chief Economist and Economic Adviser to Vice President Joe Biden in the Obama Administration

Monday, June 12, 2017

Jared Bernstein — One more point about the KS legislature’s KO (Kansas Override) of supply-side tax cut

Not to be a downer, but I’ve have been pessimistic that DC R’s will learn from KS R’s. That’s partly because facts clearly can’t kill trickle-down mythology. The party’s donors want their tax cuts, and they’ll continue to sell snake oil to get them, facts and KS be damned.
But there’s another dynamic in play here which I haven’t seen mentioned: states have to balance their budgets while the federal government does not. So, if they’re willing to accept larger budget deficits, DC R’s can pass tax cuts and not worry about the consequences.
But R’s wouldn’t go that route because they disdain deficits and debt, right?
On the Economy
One more point about the KS legislature’s KO (Kansas Override) of supply-side tax cuts
Jared Bernstein | Senior Fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and former Chief Economist and Economic Adviser to Vice President Joe Biden in the Obama Administration

Kenneth Thomas — Kansas Republicans abandon Brownback; raise taxes over his veto

Do I have to tell you that Laffer and Moore are the main advisers behind Trump’s tax plan, too?
Angry Bear
Kansas Republicans abandon Brownback; raise taxes over his veto
Kenneth Thomas | Professor of Political Science at the University of Missouri-St. Louis

Thursday, June 8, 2017

Jared Bernstein — KS legislature for the win!


Supply-side economics and the Laffer curve fail in the State of Kansas.
The only thing you can be sure of re tax cuts is the first order effect: revenue losses. Beyond that, linkages between tax changes and growth are 98.8% phony rhetoric, 1.2% ambiguous economics. The KS legislature learned that the hard way, but at least they learned it.
On the Economy
KS legislature for the win!
Jared Bernstein | Senior Fellow at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and former Chief Economist and Economic Adviser to Vice President Joe Biden in the Obama Administration

Friday, December 9, 2016

Dirk Ehnts — A comment on the trickle-down economics of Arthur Laffer, 2017 Trump edition

Laffer’s trickle-down economics did not do well empirically. Whether a cut in taxes stimulates the economy is a different question, and also any changes in tax rates might be overcompensated by changes in government spending taking place simultaneously. This, I believe, was part of the bait-and-switch under Ronald Reagan (tax cuts for the rich, but huge increase in government spending on defence) and will be part of the Trump policy, too. Nothing new here.
econoblog 101
A comment on the trickle-down economics of Arthur Laffer, 2017 Trump edition
Dirk Ehnts | Lecturer at Bard College Berlin

Friday, October 2, 2015

Mark Thoma — Paul Krugman: Voodoo Never Dies


Krugman goes all "Marxist,"sort of, and mentions class warfare — of the rich against the rest — because they can.

The opposition needs to roll out Kansas.

"Voodoo never dies" = "Zombie economics" (ht John Quiggin). The zombies run on money.

Economist’s View
Paul Krugman: Voodoo Never Dies
Mark Thoma | Professor of Economics, University of Oregon

Friday, September 18, 2015

Monday, June 22, 2015

Brad Delong — Must-Read: Invictus: Red State, Blue State: Kansas and Washington


Kansas going down the tubes due to imposition of voodoo economics (ht Poppy Bush), while Seattle is prospering after raising the minimum wage. Explain that away, Greg Mankiw.

WCEG — The Equitablog
Must-Read: Invictus: Red State, Blue State: Kansas and Washington
Brad Delong

Friday, January 23, 2015

Yves Smith — Announcing (Actually, Confirming) Our Focus on the CBO’s Dubious Models and Political Bias

We've been writing about abuses of power and process at the Congressional Budget Office and will be ramping up our coverage further now that ranking member Bernie Sanders has a new team at the Budget Committee, which among other things supervises the CBO. And the CBO is going to be the subject of a major political fight over how it prepares its estimates of the economic and fiscal impact of pending legislation. As we'll discuss below, Republicans plan to mandate that the CBO use something called dynamic scoring, which has the effect of making tax cuts look far more beneficial to the economy than they are, by effectively claiming that tax cuts boost growth, which then boosts tax receipts. It would effectively institutionalize the Laffer curve, which has been widely and repeatedly debunked. As troubling as this development is, there's already a lot not to like in how the CBO operates.…
The reason that the CBO matters so much is that its estimates are taken as gospel, as unbiased, accurate, fair, and “nonpartisan”. But as we’ve demonstrated in previously posts, the CBO has repeatedly taken what amount to partisan positions and has skewed its analysis in gross violation of its own procedures to produce results that have had enormous impact on policy debates. The CBO is firmly neoliberal, which in and of itself represents a considerable bias.…
The fundamental beef of Follette and Sheiner with the CBO model is that it naively assumes past growth in health care spending as the basis for its long-term projections. The result is that it shows that trees will grow to the sky. One of the things anyone who has built forecasting models will tell you is you come up with assumptions that look reasonable and then sanity check the output (for instance, does your model say in year 10 that your revenues will be 3x what you can produce given your forecast level in plant and investment? If so, you need to make some revisions). The Fed economists point out numerous ways that the model output flies in the face of what amounts to common sense in the world of long term budget forecasting.…
Jeff Madrick notes:
The problems with the CBO are bigger than this latest brouhaha. First, they have structural and institutional problems.… 
Second, the CBO regularly makes ideological assumptions that take neo-classical propositions at face value.…
And, frankly, they often make preposterous assumptions.…
Yves:
The CBO, much like the Fed, are bastions of hidden power that lie outside democratic accountability. But the CBO’s and OMB’s clout is even less visible than that of the central bank. CBO forecasts are treated by Congress and media as gospel. The CBO is assumed to be above partisan influence. But it is partisan in a manner that is not widely understood. It is deeply neoliberal in its orientation, and often acts as a lobbyist rather than an analyst, for instance, issuing
One of the big reasons that the CBO manages to avoid criticism is that, like the private equity industry and the Fed, it shrouds itself in secrecy. It seldom makes its models public,…
The CBO also too acts too often an advocate rather than the dispassionate analyst that it is mandated to be via statute.…
Naked Capitalism
Announcing (Actually, Confirming) Our Focus on the CBO’s Dubious Models and Political Bias
Yves Smith

Sunday, June 8, 2014

Jordan Ellenberg — Math vs. Reaganomics: Why GOP’s anti-tax hysteria falls flat

There’s nothing wrong with the Laffer curve—only with the uses people put it to. Wanniski and the politicians who followed his panpipe fell prey to the oldest false syllogism in the book:
It could be the case that lowering taxes will increase government revenue;

I want it to be the case that lowering taxes will increase government revenue;

Therefore, it is the case that lowering taxes will increase government revenue.
Salon
Math vs. Reaganomics: Why GOP’s anti-tax hysteria falls flat
Jordan Ellenberg | Vilas Distinguished Achievement Professor of Mathematics, University of Wisconsin

Friday, August 17, 2012

Joe Conason — Voodoo Economics Still Isn’t a Plan


Voodoo economics, as the senior (and smarter) Bush so memorably termed this belief system, does not work. But Ryan evidently believes in it, because his budget depends heavily on that old voodoo to achieve balance.
truthdig
Voodoo Economics Still Isn’t a Plan
Joe Conason

Out of paradigm, but true in that the presumed transmission mechanism from saving to investment is false. It will instead increase economic rent and drive up asset prices, increasing costs for most people. David Stockman admitted that the rationale intentionally manufactured as a ruse to justify ideological policy and fool the rubes.

Monday, April 16, 2012

The Laffer Curve debunked


Read it at Angry Bear
Mike Kimel at Angry Bear has several nice posts on the "Laffer Curve"
Posted by Dan Crawford (Rdan)

Laffer assumed that tax revenue is zero at tax rates of 0 and 100%, but this is only true if the tax rate is 100% and not the marginal rate. The actual curve doesn't look at all like Laffer assumed.

Not only that, as one of Kimel's commenters, Robert Waldmann points out, we actually have experience with a country having a top marginal rate over 100%, Sweden in the 1970s. Contrary to Laffer, not only was tax revenue not equal to zero, in 1975, Sweden's tax revenue was 41.3% of gross domestic product! (OECD statistics, click on "data by theme," then "public sector, taxation, and market regulation," then "taxation," then "revenue statistics - OECD member countries," then "comparative tables") 21.2% was central government revenue, i.e. excluding subnational government and social security. Either way, a long way from zero.

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

The Laffer Curve and Fiscal Policy


The dynamic calculation would be supplementary and not replace the current official scoring methodology, but the obvious long-term goal is to require official revenue estimates to incorporate “Laffer curve” effects in order to make it easier to cut taxes and harder to raise them.

The Laffer curve, named for the economist Arthur Laffer, posits that tax rates may be so high that a tax-rate reduction will raise revenue to the government and a tax-rate increase will lower revenue.
While no economist denies the theoretical possibility of a revenue-raising tax cut or revenue-losing tax increase, Republicans talk as if the United States is always on the high side of the Laffer curve – no matter what the tax rates are – so every tax cut will pay for itself and no tax increase could possibly ever raise net revenue and thus reduce the deficit.
Read it at The New York Times | Economix
Tilting the Budget Process to the G.O.P.
by Bruce Bartlett
(Bruce Bartlett held senior policy roles in the Reagan and George H.W. Bush administrations and served on the staffs of Representatives Jack Kemp and Ron Paul.)

Must-read from the MMT perspective. It shows how the present budgetary process works from the right and how it is dictated by ideology rather than macroeconomic reasoning, let alone sectoral balances.
Republicans don’t really care about accurate revenue estimates; they just want them to show that tax cuts pay for themselves, so they can pass more of them without constraint. As my fellow Economix contributor Simon Johnson has noted, the corruption of the agencies that produce budget data is a crucial cause of Europe’s debt crisis.
Keven Drum chimes in at Mother Jones
Republicans Once Again Unleash Reality Distortion Field
by Kevin Drum