The GOP's desperate to spin their shutdown in order to camouflage very real divisions. They do have one way out
Salon
All the spin is wrong: The GOP shutdown was about more than tactics
Brian Beutler
I would put it somewhat differently. The GOP's aim is to preserve Norquistism and get the Democrates to agree to cut Social Security. First, Norquistism is an iron clad rule since Poppy Bush broke his "Read my lips. No new taxes pledge."
Secondly, the primary aim of the GOP is to end the welfare state created by New Deal, which means ultimately privatizing Social Security. They know that Social Security is very popular, especially with their older base. They cannot cut Social Security or Medicare alone, and they need Democratic leadership to do it.
Many Democrats realize that this is a trap and than if they agree to cut Social Security, especially if they propose the cuts as part of a Grand Bargain, then they will be beat over the head with it in coming elections.
The problem is that the Democratic Establishment is also aligned with the forces lobbying for entitlement cuts, that is, the wealthy donor who see the welfare state as increasing their taxes.
In addition, first Bill Clinton and now Barack Obama regards it as a matter of establishing presidential legacy as a Very Serious Person who dared to confront difficult political problems.
This may look like a Republican problem but it is a much more serious Democratic problem that could refashion the party in the future away from the Democratic Establishment. Which would be a good thing, but not at the expense of cutting Social Security and Medicare and "fixing the debt."
The economic fallout would be horrendous if the government contribution is pared substantially. The GOP Establishment knows that and would try to increase military spending to offset the cuts in social programs, were this to happen.
