My reading of the consensus view is that the change in personnel at the Federal Reserve has coincided with a more hawkish outlook, although the tax cut presumably helped push matters. I do not have a strong reason to disagree with such a view; the Fed is probably going to revert back to its historical policy of gradualism -- which was a 25 basis point hike per meeting....
Bond Economics
Back To GradualismBrian Romanchuk
The Fed has done a good job of painting itself into a corner. Financial market participants have worked themselves up into a hypersensitive mood with regards to central bank actions, even though there is little evidence that the economy itself is sensitive to small changes in monetary policy. About the only palatable way out is for the Fed to give in and follow a policy of übergradualism -- hiking rates by 25 basis points at every second meeting.
Bond Economics
The Fed And ÜbergradualismBrian Romanchuk
