Daily Treasury Statement predicting HUGE jobs number on Friday

If you took my course, Understanding the Daily Treasury Statement, you would know why I am making this call, now, three days before the release of that number. I am telling you this: it will be far better than expectations.

I am not going to tell you how I know this, but I know. You will have to sign up for the next course to learn how to get this information plus lots of other, very powerful, money making tips and insights from this amazing resource. I am the only one who teaches this.

Consider this a gift--my gift to you, so don't waste it; go make yourself some (a lot) of money.

The number will blow away the 240k expected gain in nonfarm  payrolls. BLOW. IT. AWAY.

So, what  do you do?  You buy the dollar (short euro, yen, British pound, Aussie dollar, etc), sell bonds, sell gold and sell stocks. On the latter, I know it seem counterintuitive because, obviously, a strong jobs number is bullish news for the economy and therefore bullish for stocks, however, the way the market has been trading, i.e. with intense fear of an imminent rate hike, they'll probably hit the stock market in reaction to a strong number. On the other hand, longer term investors should use this as an opportunity to add to long stock positions.

Enjoy.

-Mike Norman
#itsnotaboutthedeficit

Are employment tax receipts warning of a softening job market?

Employment tax receipts to the Federal Gov't are now negative year-over-year for the first time since December. And weekly unemployment claims have risen for the past three weeks in a row. Tomorrow they're expecting a pretty strong jobs number. Do these data suggest a negative surprise?

The disturbing trend underneath the strong jobs report

Total employment taxes (witholding) collected by the Federal Government so far this year, are running about $8 billion above last year. On the surface this would appear to be a good sign and an indication of a stronger economy and job market, however, notice the trend, it's going down. This comes despite a stellar jobs number last Friday. It suggests that income earned on all these new jobs is not rising, but in fact falling. This seems to be corroborated by average hourly earnings, which on a year-over-year basis, hit the lowest level in 10 months in January.

Not to be a killjoy, but...

Today's jobs report was WAAAYYYY better than expected, no question. However, when you look behind the bullish, 243k gain in payrolls and drop in the unemployment rate to 8.3%, you see a disturbing trend: Average hourly earnings continue to decline. And since national income equals national product, then shrinking the income of the nation (or causing it to grow very slowly) means that you are shrinking the economy by definition. So, yeah, there are more people working, but they're earning less. Not good.

Average Hourly Earnings Y-o-Y % change

Job market collapsing amid gov't spending slowdown

We saw very quickly what happened when government spending fell in the first quarter: economic growth collapsed down to a paltry, 1.8% from the 3.1% growth rate seen in Q4 2010.

Other economic indicators are now starting to show the effects of that spending reduction. Weekly unemployment claims have suddenly surged to their highest level since last August.

Jobless claims are surging!


And the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index plunged at the fastest rate since 2008!


And tomorrow's jobs report could be horrible!

Yet Congress and the president now want to cut spending further!

This raises the likelihood that the economy will go back into recession.