Showing posts with label operations research. Show all posts
Showing posts with label operations research. Show all posts

Saturday, October 14, 2017

Robert Locke — The New Paradigm that emerged in economic s after WWII

As an historian, I am somewhat appalled at the inability of economists, including those on this blog to get the history of their own discipline straight.  The obsession has been with neoclassical economic’s attempt to turn economics into a physico-mathematical discipline as Walras phrased it, and the economists usually discuss this attempt within the historical context of their discipline pre-1945, with references, to  Walras, Marshall, Keynes, and others.
It  became clear to me over thirty years ago, that the neoclassical  effort to turn economics into a prescriptive science had failed before WWII....
When I wrote my chapter on The New Paradigm in Management and Higher Education Since 1940, CUP, 1989, I focused on the methods of Operational Research developed during WWII and the Cold War, that neoclassical economics imbibed . I wrote, for example, about how the Rand Corporation working on OR problems for the US Air Force gave birth to George Dantzig’s linear programming algorithms in 1947. 
Postwar military planners and the economists who worked with them at Rand believed the new toolkit would transform neoclassical economics into a prescriptive science. At Rand in 1948, the economist Kenneth Arrow used the toolkit in his work on Rational Choice Theory. The neoclassical economists Joseph Dorfman, Paul Samuelson, and Robert Solow applied linear programming to their subject as well (in Linear Programming and Economic Analysis, 1958).
Why isn’t the source of the new paradigm in OR being discussed, instead of preWWII economists.
When I wrote the second chapter in my 1989 book, “The New Paradigm Revisited,” I questioned through the critics, how the prescriptive prowess of The New Paradigm fizzled. The people I cited were primarily OR scientists themselves. That is, I note that the people whose methodologies led to the New Paradigm, questioned the effectiveness of their own discipline. The prime example of this volte-face is Russell Ackoff, who popularized OR methods in the UK in the 1960s, only to write in a 1979 article, “The future of operational research is past,” “OR problems can never be a perfect representation of a problem. They leave out the human dimension, the motivational one. [Problem solving requires] the application not only of science with a capital S, but also, all the arts and humanities we can command.”....
Real-World Economics Review Blog
The New Paradigm that emerged in economic s after WWII
Robert Locke

Friday, July 29, 2016

Scott Adams — Experience is Overrated

Most educated people could make informed decisions about most political questions if they had the benefit of world-class advisors. That’s my claim.
But how about international trade agreements, tax policy, and healthcare? Those are complicated, right? Yes. Indeed, no president understands those topics in sufficient detail to be trusted with a solo decision. So in those cases, you need advisors. That brings us to the question of how you can find the right advisors.
Easy.
If it’s a military question, you ask the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to get you the right advisors for the topic.

If you have a law-and-order question, ask someone like Rudy Giuliani to come up with some suggested advisors. Giuliani could give you ten names from both parties.
If you need experts in economics, ask your Chief of Staff to round up a few top economists (Nobel winners, for example) from both parties and see if they all say the same thing. They won’t. So in that field, there is no such thing as useful expert advice.
And so on. The point is that it is easy for a President of the United States to assign people to find the best advisors. The President isn’t making phone calls and interviewing experts all day. The President sees the experts who have already been vetted by several other experts.
Technocracy as democracy.

Scott Adams' Blog
Experience is Overrated
Scott Adams

Saturday, December 22, 2012

David Ronfeldt on Tribes, Institutions, Markets, Networks


TIMN (Tribes, Institutions, Markets, Networks) in relation to P2P (peer to peer approach to the commons). Thoughts on emergent society.

Link to David Ronfeldt's paper, "Tribes, Institutions, Markets, Networks: A Framework about Social Evolution" (Rand Corp, 1996). Free download for personal use.

P2P
Is p2p/commons theory to economistic?
Guest post by David Ronfeldt

Here is a list of David Ronfeldt's publications at Rand Corp.

See also:

Global Guerillas
Societal Evolution And Ronfeldt's TIMN
John Robb | former USAF pilot in special operations and author of Brave New War