Monday, January 19, 2015

Destabilization of Ukraine

Unintended consequences of destabilization.

Fort Russ
Stab in the Back, Ukrainian-style

Right Sector blows up Kharkov courthouse


PeterP said...

Crap, I read here that the Right Sector was basically running Ukraine and here I read that they are dragged to courts.

Seriously confused now.

Tom Hickey said...

There is now a struggle for power going on the Ukraine between the elected government and the Right Sector, which did not do well in the elections but is threatening another putsch. The Right Sector is represented in government through appointments disproportionally wrt to electoral success. This apparently reflects the need of the government to buy them off. It's not going all that well, however. The right Sector militias are not accepting commands from the Ukrainian armed forces, and the Right Sector politicians are threatening revolt if they don''t get their way. This is evidence of instability that doesn’t bode well for peace in the Ukraine.

Neither Russia nor the US and its EU allies are willing to fully support the Ukraine in the scale it will take, as Soros estimates, 50 B USD. Without that aid, instability will increase.

This is an increasingly volatile situation that the US is parlaying toward regime change in Russia.

The situation is not too different from Iraq in that there are two sides, Sunni-Shia and anti-Russian and Russian, with each divided into factions.