Sunday, June 18, 2017

Tyler Durden — Derivative Markets Signal Looming End Of The Business Cycle

It's looking like the Trump bump is over, with the expected tax cuts and infrastructure spending stalled as the country becomes embroiled in Trumpgate and Congress focuses instead on repeal/repairing Obamacare, depending on which faction of the GOP one is in and what one's reelection prospects are.

Oh, and did I mention the impending debt ceiling, which looks like its going to be contentious again, at least from the signals that Trump is sending.


John said...

Debt ceiling's only an issue for the Reps if the Dems are in office. When the Reps are in office, the issue magically vanishes. The Reps charlatanry never ceases to amaze, but what's more amazing is that Republican voters, even "conservative" voters, don't grasp the doublethink involved.

Has anyone asked Trump why he waved through a multibillion dollar weapons deal to Qatar days AFTER he publicly declared the country to be a supporter of terrorism?

Bob said...

No spending ceiling for the Pentagon, for either Pubs or Dems.

Tom Hickey said...

It would explain all those "Russian hackers" running amok.

Not for a national security state whose policy is global hegemony, rather than a welfare state operated for public purpose.

But the national security state is also part of the market state in that making the world safe for democracy and freedom is really making the world safe for US business globally.

As always, follow the money.

Salsabob said...

By far, the PRIMARY reason for the Freedom Caucus existence is the House GOP allowing the 2012 debt ceiling increase and sequestration bargain - just ask Eric Candor and John Boehner (hint - you won't find either anywhere near Congress today). As we've seen with Trumpcare, the House cannot pass controversial legislation without the Freedom Cause with the one and only exception being if Nancy Pelosi allies with Paul Ryan to bypass them. That means: (1) a Freedom Caucus ransom that will make Trump/Mulvaney's current extremely austere 2018 budget proposal look extremely generous; (2)Ryan facing the choice of either allying himself with Pelosi to increase the debt ceiling without the Freedom Caucus or continuing his Congressional career; and (3)Pelosi deciding whether or not to let the village burn in order to save it. None of these people have the slightest clue about the tenets of MMT and thereby not a notion of the actual consequences of not raising the debt ceiling or of passing an austere budget. Only one of two scenarios likely: (a) the Freedom Caucus gets the most austere federal spending limits ever imaginable and within 12 months the world economy is rapidly contracting; or (b)we go over the debt ceiling cliff and financial transactions immediatelycease to exist at every level. If you're not planning for this, good luck.

Tom Hickey said...

@ Salsabob


Obama had his Joe Lieberman (the 60th vote to break the filibuster), and Trump and Ryan have the Freedom Caucus to reach a deal to pass legislation without Democrats.

G. W. Bush: "If this were a dictatorship it would be a heck of a lot easier... as long as I'm the dictator. Hehehe.”

Making Trump out as an authoritarian overlooks the fact that he doesn’t have a solid party vote behind him.