Calculated Risk — Default Ceiling: Bluffing into the Nuts

I prefer "default ceiling" because "debt ceiling" sounds like some sort of virtuous limit, when, in reality, the vote is about whether or not to the pay the bills - and voting for default is reckless and irresponsible.

Calculated Risk
Default Ceiling: Bluffing into the Nuts
Bill McBride

"Default ceiling." I like it. Excellent framing.

Bill McBride — 2013 Housing Forecasts

Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year. 

Here was a summary of forecasts for 2012. Right now it looks like new home sales will be around 370 thousand this year, and total starts around 770 thousand or so. Tom Lawler, John Burns and David Crowe (NAHB) were all very close on New Home sales for 2012. Lawler was the closest on housing starts.

The table below shows several forecasts for 2013. (several analysts were kind enough to share their forecasts - thanks!)

Calculated Risk
2013 Housing Forecasts
Bill McBride

Bill McBride — Economic Outlook: Where are we?

So there are some reasons for a little optimism, but it is difficult to make projections without knowing the budget agreement.

Calculated Risk
Economic Outlook: Where are we?
Bill McBride

Bill McBride summarizes Jan Hatzius on 2013 and beyond

Short summary. 

Hatzius uses a Godley-based model. He sees fiscal drag (taxes plus saving) declining.

Calculated Risk
Goldman Sachs: "Moving Over the Hump"
Bill McBride

Calculated Risk - Residential Investment Recovery

Bill McBride of Calculated Risk offers his Thoughts on Residential Investment Recovery

This is a must-read post. Here is a brief summary:

• Residential investment (RI) is the best leading indicator for the economy. This isn't perfect - nothing is - but RI is usually a strong leading indicator for the business cycle....

• In 2011, residential investment will make a positive contribution to the economy for the first time since 2005....

• ...As the excess supply is absorbed, new residential investment will increase in some areas – and will probably return to normal sometime in 2014 - or as late as 2017 - depending on the actual number of excess vacant housing units. I'm leaning more towards 2015 or 2016...

The housing crisis is still very much with us.