Robert Oak — Existing Home Sales Up 3.2% As Prices Soar To Record Highs

Some good news for a change.

This could be a spurt due to getting in the market while the getting is good. Markets are anticipating a rate increase soon, perhaps in September. Mortgage rates are already starting to increase somewhat but are still low historically.

Not all good news, however. The price increase is not supported by a corresponding wage increase, which implies increasing reliance on leverage.

The Economic Populist
Existing Home Sales Up 3.2% As Prices Soar To Record Highs

Robert Oak

Brad DeLong — Why Is the U.S. Economy Still Depressed?: DeLong FAQ

And even though exports are up, net exports are not.

Grasping Reality
Why Is the U.S. Economy Still Depressed?: DeLong FAQ
Brad DeLong | Professor of Economics, UCAL Berkeley

Bill McBride — Comment on House Prices: Real Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio, Cities

Even if you don't follow housing closely, this is something to be aware of. Charts illustrate if you just want a quick overview. Housing seems to have bottomed and recovery is in progress. As Bill notes, the figures are through June and don't take into consideration the recent rise in mortgage rates. Latest reports are indicating that this is having an adverse effect on the recovery, along with stagnant incomes in a weak economic recovery and credit still relatively tight.

Calculated Risk
Comment on House Prices: Real Prices, Price-to-Rent Ratio, Cities
Bill McBride

Is the bottom really in?

Less than four months ago, I wrote The Housing Bottom is Here and I pointed out that the house price data had a significant lag so we had to look at other data for clues. The post title refers to the many emails I received back in February: "bold call", "gutsy call", "you are insane" ... and many more.

Read it at Calculated Risk
House Prices: From "bold call" to consensus in four months

by Bill McBride

There is good reason to think that a housing bottom is in and good reason to be cautious, too. Same with the economic recovery in general.

The good reason to be optimistic is that real indicators are looking better. The good reason to be pessimistic is that financial indicators are not looking better and in effect nothing has changed the pre-crisis behavior of the financial sector that led to the crisis.

Conclusion. We might squeak by with low growth until the next crisis hits. Since crises hit every five to seven years these days, we are already due. I would not be celebrating this apparent recovery yet.

Will The Student Debt Burden Depress The US Housing Market For The Foreseeable Future? (Yes)

So, the US has a uniquely substantial drag around its younger population that will make large portions of its younger population unable to buy homes for a long time to come. Forget any serious "recovery" of housing prices anywhere in the US anytime soon.

Read it at Econospeak
Will The Student Debt Burden Depress The US Housing Market For The Foreseeable Future?

by Barkley Rosser
(h/t Mark Thoma)

Barkley Rosser agrees with what Dr. Housing Bubble has been saying for some time.