Calling a recession too early (and incorrectly) —Jason Smith

Econo-physicist Jason Smith demonstrates how to deal with a failed model forecast — acknowledge it, explain it, learn from it, and move on to improving the process.

Information Transfer Economics
Calling a recession too early (and incorrectly)
Jason Smith

Simon Wren-Lewis — ZLB Models?

Tilting at windmills.

Worse:

Now at this point you may be thinking that I am just being a bit pedantic about labels. I am not sure I should apologise if I am, but I do have another motivation. Talk of different models that can be applied to the same problem harks back to ‘schools of thought’ days in macro. I think macro should be better than that now. For better or worse, the microfoundations project and the new neoclassical synthesis gave us a common language, where we could talk about different mechanisms within a shared approach. That should make the process of matching evidence to theory more straightforward.

What if the "shared approach" — shared by whom? — is off track? What if Keynes minus Samuelson, Hicks, neoclassical synthesis and NK monetarism is correct? What about the Post Keynesian crit

What would count for showing that the "shared approach" is offtrack? Missing the GFC and not being able to either explain it or fix the damage? What about the Post Keynesian critique that got it right and has a well-reasoned plan based on fiscalism instead of monetarism?

mainly macro
ZLB Models?
Simon Wren-Lewis | Professor of Economics, Oxford University