Sunday, January 26, 2014

Pavlina at Truthout


Pavlina's post contra Matt Yglesias on the MMT JG is reposted at Truthout.

Sixteen Reasons Matt Yglesias Is Wrong About the Job Guarantee vs. Basic Income by Pavlina R. Tcherneva, Ph.D., New Economic Perspectives | Op-Ed

Lord Keynes — Mises’s Explanation of the Great Depression: A Critique


Relevant today because the debate between market fundamentalists and Keynesians is still very much alive.

Social Democracy for the 21st Century: A Post Keynesian Perspective
Mises’s Explanation of the Great Depression: A Critique
Lord Keynes

Robert Oak — GDP By Industry for 2012


Data and graphs.

The Economic Populist
GDP By Industry for 2012
Robert Oak

Scott Kaufman — Bayer Pharmaceutical CEO: Cancer drug only ‘for western patients who can afford it’ (via Raw Story )

Bayer Pharmaceutical CEO: Cancer drug only ‘for western patients who can afford it’ (via Raw Story )
In an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek, Bayer CEO Marijn Dekkers said that his company’s new cancer drug, Nexavar, isn’t “for Indians,” but “for western patients who can afford it.” The drug, which is particularly effective on late-…

Paul Jay interviews Gar Alperovitz — Capitalism in Long Term Stagnation and Decay


Video and transcript.
...if you concentrate wealth at the top, there's not enough purchasing power to make the rest of the system work.
Real News Network
Capitalism in Long Term Stagnation and Decay - Gar Alperovitz on Reality Asserts Itself (3/5)
Paul Jay interviews Gar Alperovitz

Don Quijones — Continue to Ignore Writing on Wall

As the London banker deftly explains in his blog, those charged with protecting the integrity of markets from the abuses of financial institutions have instead been going out of the way to facilitate those same abuses:
“It used to be that the role of the state in financial market regulation was to ensure efficient market operations, promote transparency of prices and liquidity, protect consumers from abusive practices, and to resolve failed companies according to principles of equitable distribution of assets among like classes of creditors. If the role of the state now is to shield HFT, dark pool and OTC markets from transparency, provide liquidity where the market fails, oversee the orderly fleecing of consumers, and to ensure that some creditors of failing firms always win while others always lose, then we no longer have a market economy. And as virtually all these regulatory policies have evolved in the absence of public debate and legislative scrutiny, we also no longer have democratic governance of markets.”
Raging Bull-shit
Continue to Ignore Writing on Wall
Don Quijones

Matthew O'Brien — Why Is the American Dream Dead in the South?



Atlantic Business
Why Is the American Dream Dead in the South?
Matthew O'Brien

Lars P. Syll — Out of the frying pan into the fire — DSGE and Ricardian equivalence


... I totally agree that macroeconomic models have to abandon Ricardian equivalence nonsense. But replacing it with “overlapping generations” and “infinite-horizon” models — isn’t that — in terms of realism and relevance — just getting out of the frying pan into the fire?
Out of the frying pan into the fire — DSGE and Ricardian equivalence
Lars P. Syll | Professor, Malmo University

Saturday, January 25, 2014

The Sane Human Test. See if YOU Pass. Dedicated to Jane and Joe Sixpack.

   (Commentary posted by Roger Erickson)



You'll probably STILL hear the following myth, from ~139 million of our ~140 million eligible voters
"... tax the Rich ... Because that's where the money is?"
Uh ... that was true on a gold std.

However, since 1933 that is NOT where the fiat is!
Please read Marriner Eccles first address to the Senate, in 1932.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/docs/meltzer/ecctes33.pdf
Then read Beardsley Ruml's revelation, 1946
http://www.constitution.org/tax/us-ic/cmt/ruml_obsolete.pdf
(Yes, it took BR 13 years to realize what Ben Franklin noted in 1727! Let's discuss that delay for another time. BR probably suffered from a degree in economics.)

Per definition, "fiat" = public initiative.

No, we can NOT let gold-hoarding plutocrats manage our currency supply "for" us, ever again. They screwed that up so badly, so many times, that we can NEVER fall for that BS again. We couldn't have ended the Depression, or mobilized to win WWII on a gold std. If we were on a gold std, our rate of mobilizing for a WWII initiative would still be picking up steam at the station!

So, since 1933, we accelerate agile management of our own, distributed, Public Initiative, using FIAT currency - where every transaction allowed by our culture is - in theory - instantly denominated as a matching debit/credit to buyers/sellers. That still means public responsibility, of course, but the metrics we must co-manage AS OUR NATION GROWS, are increasing national output AND controlled inflation. It is completely irrelevant to "balance" the yearly supply of a floating denomination metric (fiat currency). For those struggling with this as a novel context to picture, managing a fiat currency supply is analogous to managing the amount of oxygen/CO2 which an individual breathes in and out. How much fiat currency do we need? Answer: as much as our activities dictate. No more and no less. Same as during WWII. Breathing, initiative or fiat currency is not something we need to regulate in any way EXCEPT to avoid the extremes of hyperventilating for no reason, or holding our public initiative until the MiddleClass turns blue

How the heck does one "balance fiat?" What does that even mean?

Today? We're voluntarily letting fiat-hoarding plutocrats manage OUR fiat for us? Today that's called "fiat austerity" and class disparity. Whatever the semantics, do you think that will turn out any better than letting the same charlatans manage our gold-std currency supply did in 1929? Dream on! I've go a derivative on Wall St. to sell to you, along with that virtual bridge in Arizona.

Next, read:
15 Fallacies of Financial Fundamentalism
http://www.columbia.edu/dlc/wp/econ/vickrey.html

7Difs
http://moslereconomics.com/2009/12/10/7-deadly-innocent-frauds/

& Luther Gulick's original SocSec memo
http://www.ssa.gov/history/Gulick.html

Are you thoroughly FURIOUS yet?

If you're now mad as hell, and refuse to take the class warfare anymore ... then CONGRATULATIONS! You pass the sane human test!!!

It's the 1% idiot savant sociopaths who are insane, NOT you.

Now please leverage YOUR sanity for the net benefit of your culture and nation.


None of us is as smart as all of us? That's true ONLY if each of us listens, often enough, to ALL of us.





Is Any Corp-FICA Tax Funding THIS Corporate Welfare? Democracy Mandates A Fairness Doctrine.

   (Commentary posted by Roger Erickson)



Ten Examples of Welfare for the Rich and Corporations

If individual welfare benefits (unemployment/retirement) & FICA taxes are pure politics, then corporate welfare benefits are too.

Either both, ... or neither!

Neither sure sounds a lot faster/better/smarter.

If pure politics means selective taxes on the MiddleClass, but NOT the UpperLootingClass .... how fair is that? How productive is it for the USA?

No fairness? No Democracy. We need to get it back.

Unconventional Economist — US trade shocker one step closer to reality



The TPP from an Australian POV.
I have written previously about the risks posed to Australia’s sovereignty and consumer welfare from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

If the TPP goes ahead, it will establish a US-style regional regulatory framework that meets the demands of major US export industries, including pharmaceutical and digital....

Australia’s Trade Minister, Andrew Robb, has signaled Australia’s unbridled support for the TPP provided Australia gains significant access to agricultural markets, even labeling the agreement as a “platform for 21st-century trade rules”....
Neoliberalism at work. Firms benefit selectively, while the public at large pays for it with a reduction in living standard.

MacroBusiness.au
US trade shocker one step closer to reality
Unconventional Economist


Luddites Tout Luddite Internet

   (Commentary posted by Roger Erickson)



Luddites Tout Luddite Internet

'Nuff said? Where have you heard that refrain before? Another variant of the constantly declining "Austerian Toolkit?"

Slow down ... the most commonly heard LAST MESSAGE heard from Old Generations .... as their newly spawned generations rapidly recede into the future.

Every generation, the new crop of humans leaves a "breadcrumb" signpost engraved with 4 characters - "WHY?"

There's never yet been an a meaningful answer. So no reason to slow the pace of cultural evolution yet.



The Very Fact That This Topic Has To Be RE-Introduced By Aging Grandparents Today ... Scares The Hell Out Of Me.

   (Commentary posted by Roger Erickson)



Where on Earth have these people BEEN for 150 years?
Let alone 4000 years?
"If you're worried that lions are eating too many zebras, you don't say to the lions, 'You're eating too many zebras.' You have to build a fence around the lions. They're not going to build it."

Judge Richard Posner Questions His Free-Market Faith In "A Failure Of Capitalism"
Ya think?

Show me anything between social-to-subatomic processes that are not hemmed in by regulatory tolerance limits.

BMHOTK!

The very fact that this topic has to be RE-introduced by aging grandparents today, in the AFTERMATH of court cases over disastrous behaviors ... scares the hell out of me.

Are we doomed? Can survive ourselves? Not looking good at this pace.




US Treasury Spending vs. Loans and Leases in Bank Credit


Longer term chart below comparing the leading UST spending levels per FY vs the level of Loans and Leases in the Fed's H.8 Bank Credit.  This is a mark-up, I have the basic interactive chart here for those interested.




Period "A" here is the period towards the end of the second Clinton administration, "B" is the time period corresponding to the 2 GW Bush administrations, and "C" is the recent part of the current Obama administrations.

Of note is the general linearity of the growth in US Treasury spending (present era excepted of course... its linear alright, but going down! .... can you believe it!?) and general NON-linearity of the growth in Loans and Leases in the H.8 Bank Credit, that is until "something bad" usually happens.

Recessions have occurred towards the end of period A and the end of period B; while it seems too early to tell what the outcome will be for period C, which is our current work in progress.  While I think it fair to say things currently seem a bit shaky we should probably withhold judgement for now; but this is for sure a troubling picture developing here.

There is a divergence developing between the upper and lower lines presently due to BOTH a recent increase in this part of Bank Credit and for the first time in modern history, we are experiencing a decline in Treasury spending at the same time.

As the upper and lower lines diverge, it seems like we increase the likelihood that we will cause a systemic malfunction.

Below is the current situation as far as a short term comparison of FYTD Treasury spending, we are about $40B behind last year's spending level at this point in the FY (not good, keeps the right most red line in the chart above down-sloping).  We are not sure if this trend will continue for the rest of the FY but we are keeping an eye on it and intend to keep this chart updated daily.





Christopher Hope — Labour will clear £86bn deficit by 2020, Ed Balls says

Shadow chancellor Ed Balls makes "binding fiscal commitment" if the Labour Party wins next year’s general election
The so-called left out-bidding the right on austerity, like the Third Way New Democrats in the US.

The Telegraph (UK)
Labour will clear £86bn deficit by 2020, Ed Balls says
Christopher Hope, Senior Political Correspondent
(h/t Ralph Musgrave)

Dave Schuler — Why Are the People Here So Docile?

Finally, my study of revolutions suggests that the poor never rebel. The Glorious Revolution in England, the American Revolution, the French Revolution, the Russian Revolution, and the Chinese Revolutions of 1911 and 1949 were all launched by one group of elites against another group of elites. The general rule is that educated, urban elites foment revolution against agrarian elites who depend on the ownership of land for their wealth.

Here in the United States our own elites benefit mightily from the system as it is. They like the way things are.
Glittering Eye
Why Are the People Here So Docile?
Dave Schuler

Gavin Kennedy — Adam Smith's Self Interest is Not Served by Selfishness



Gavin Kennedy explodes another Smith myth.
George Stigler’s 1976 opening admonition that economics is founded on the “granite of self-interest” needs to be modified by the inclusion of the words “the granite of mediated self-interest”! Smith might then have saved the Chicago ‘boys’ from embarrassment in Chile if they had read Smith properly and not been enthused by Stigler’s enthusiasms for a half-understood idea that wasn’t Smith’s anyway.
"Mediated" means by serving the interests of others, you know, like customers and associates.

See also Alexis de Tocqueville on the principle of self-interest rightly understood.
 
Adam Smith's Lost Legacy
Adam Smith's Self Interest is Not Served by Selfishness
Gavin Kennedy | Emeritus Professor, Heriot-Watt University

Peter Radford — Distribution and all that


Analysis of distribution through rationing by price

Real-World Economics Review Blog
Distribution and all that
Peter Radford

Chris Dillow — (Ab)uses of statistics


Chris Dillow links economics and power.
Macroeconomic data do not, and should not, over-ride individuals' local, dispersed knowledge of their personal situation.

You might think this is an Austrian point. But it is also a Keynesian one. Keynes described macro aggregates such as the price level or aggregate output as "vague and non-quantitative concepts" which are "unsatisfactory for the purposes of a causal analysis." To use a good if over-used metaphor, macro stats are only an imperfect map, not the terrain....

In this sense, Alasdair MacIntyre identified the purpose of macro stats - the claim to possess them is a claim to power: "What purport to be objectively-grounded claims function in fact as expressions of arbitrary, but disguised, will and preference" (After Virtue, p107). This sounds like a Foucauldian point, but it has been shared by people who wouldn't know Foucault from off stump....

If we focus upon macro data to the detriment of individuals' actual experience, we risk mistaking the map for the terrain. Which is one reason (of several) why Kenneth Boulding was right to say (pdf) that "almost all organizational structures tend to produce false images in the decision-maker."
(Use the embedded link above to download Boulding's "The Economics of Knowledge and the Knowledge of Economics.")

In a footnote, Dillow makes another good point.
Strictly speaking, "data" is the wrong word. It comes from the latin for "something given", but in fact macro data aren't given at all but rather constructed.
So-called data is the input into the black box of information processing and emerges as information. The data (given) is shaped by the data-gathering process, both limitations upon it — it's not possible to collect every detail — and selection criteria — choosing what to include and what to exclude. Then the input is processed into information using methods that involve further assumptions. As a result the output of information is only an approximation of the given from a POV, and the given itself is only an approximation of the sum of what may be relevant. For example, power is excluded from macroeconomic consideration.

Stumbling and Mumbling
(Ab)uses of statistics
Chris Dillow | Investors Chronicle

Joe Weisenthal — Robert Shiller: Bitcoin Is An Amazing Example Of A Bubble

 I don't think that Professor Shiller gets it. His generation is not going to use digital currency. They are on the other side of change and don't think digitally. The coming generations grow up in a digital world. Digital currency isn't just going to happen; it's already here. Bitcoin is just the Amazon of the group — at the moment. This story is evolving.

Not that I deny that Bitcoin may be in a bubble. We don't know. What we do know is that Bitcoin is extremely volatile and unless it settles down, it will be mostly a speculative vehicle outside of it advantages as a payment system, in particular an international one.

Bitcoin entrepreneurs need to create a way to short Bitcoin to iron out the bumps. Then people like Shiller could walk their talk by taking a position in "sure thing."

Oh wait, someone has already thought of that.

How to short bitcoins (if you really must) by Simone Foxman at Quartz.

Business Insider
Joe Weisenthal

A Rigged Game. Pathetic. Played Only To Drain The Wrong, Unregulated "Reserves." :(

   (Commentary posted by Roger Erickson)



IDEAS Fantasy Economics league, a new game housed by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. It ranks living "economists" by ego? Useless diversion.

BI's hype for The Nerdiest Fantasy Sport Ever -- Fantasy Economics.

The players don't even know what charade they're making a pale imitation of.

What would Marriner Eccles & FDR think? Not much.

A game "matters?"
   How much?
   And to whom?

Only to those who don't participate in setting the rules "others" can play by ..... while the real "players" play by their own rules?

While it seems to matter a lot - nominally - to the gullible rubes, reality is that it doesn't?

While reality doesn't matter to the fake rules publishers ... the nominal scores seem to matter tremendously, to them. Merely as a divide & conquer diversion?

The deeper causality between all the fiat fills & drains?

It's all just a reserve drain of sociopathy!

Mon fiat! For JJSixpack's sake! There is a better way. 

You can't convince me that the entire population of the USA is this ignorant, dumb & listless. It's past time to put a stop to the excess nonsense & distracting games, America. It's no longer just nominal, and has spilled over into constraining our own reality.





William A. Cohn — Law as Farce

With Obama’s Jan. 17 speech on NSA Spy-Gate failing to quell civil unrest, the Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board today released its findings that NSA metadata collection is unlawful and should stop. Most revealing was Charlie Savage’s reporting that from May 2006 to August 2013 the FISC authorized Patriot Act Sec. 215 overriding the Electronic Communications Privacy Act without any legal opinion to support the clear violations of the ECPA, let alone the Fourth Amendment. Yes, secret law is an oxymoron – meaning lawlessness.
The torture memos by John Yoo, Jay Bybee, and Steven Bradbury were written because CIA criminality was exposed by leaks, so the Bush cabal felt they needed legal cover. Had Jane Mayer and Dana Priest not used leaked information to write about the outsourcing of torture and secret CIA-run prisons in Europe, no such twisted law, logic and morality as evinced by those memos would be needed. Likewise, but for Ed Snowden and Glenn Greenwald, the FISC would still be the secret handmaiden of the national security state.
Belief in the “trust us” rationale for secret law-making requires belief that the world is black and white, with clear good guys vs. bad guys. Thanks to transparency abetted by technology, we see that all powerful states are dirty. And so, when the Emperor claims that he is well-robed in his language of democracy and rule of law, we clearly see him naked.
Counterpunch
Law as Farce
William A. Cohn

Robert Hunziker — The Holy Grail of Energy?


Wireless electricity.

Counterpunch
The Holy Grail of Energy?
Robert Hunziker

Rob Urie — Technology and Economic Imperialism

The oft called ‘knowledge’ economy brought into being in the ‘developed’ West in the 1990s is composed of several industries that are broadly related but also quite specific unto themselves– artificial intelligence, telecommunications, finance, information technology and digital commerce- the Internet. More broadly, these can be divided into ‘finance’— Wall Street, insurance and real estate; and ‘technology,’ modes and methods of operational interaction with the world. One branch of these technologies in particular, the algorithmic ‘intelligent’ technology of computing tied together through global telecommunications infrastructure, is widely considered by Western economists to be a second ‘industrial age,’ a group of innovations that revolutionized the way the world ‘works.’ The development and growth of these industries was coincident with the revival of the political economy of neo-liberalism and the return of finance capitalism in its most intrusive and destructive forms. And finance— Wall Street, played a prominent role in inserting these new technologies into global political economy.
Finance and information technology are ‘Cartesian’ capitalism reconstituted in its purest form, the form, function and facilitation of the ‘rational’ interaction of ‘economic man’ with ‘the world’ of capitalist theory. Finance is the ‘fluid’ of capitalism, the Aristotelian ether that unites commerce and suspends it in a body of metaphysical equivalence, the ‘this equals that’ that facilitates the aggregation of claims on ‘the world.’ The ‘intelligence’ of ‘intelligent’ machines is algorithmic, the product of instructions written in mathematical languages to be operationally efficient, the reconstitution of ‘time is money’ into machine action. Not coincidentally, finance and technology are the twin ‘explanations’ offered by capitalist economists for the stupendous fortunes suddenly found in the pockets and bank accounts of a group of actual persons so small it could barely fill an island of modest size. And to be clear, these fortunes are ‘claims’ in the sense they are socially circumscribed rather than ‘possessed,’ aggregations of contracts, representations and rights that depend on social accedence for their ‘value.’
The typical frame of ‘technology’ in Western economics is as method / mode of economic ‘efficiency’ in capitalist production. Opponents of technology are ‘Luddites,’ labor displaced by technology whose blame is ‘misplaced’ because making more from less— economic efficiency, makes ‘the world’ better off. The ‘tradeoff’ offered is that this displaced labor can now buy lower priced goods made possible through ‘technology.’ And if the new found absence of a paycheck hinders those directly displaced from reaping economic benefit then the economic ‘system’ is argued to benefit. Finance, ‘money,’ is the fluid and metric of equivalence here, the object of ‘system’ that renders irrelevant whose pocket it ends up in. The fact of displacement is its own proof, the backward induction that technology found the right target. This theoretical sleight of hand is wholly circular—economic efficiency made possible through technology benefits the economic system, labor displaced by technology is part of this economic system and therefore displaced labor benefits from being displaced....
Counterpoint
Technology and Economic Imperialism
Rob Urie

Friday, January 24, 2014

The financial lobby — A union for big banks

With the financial crisis, member states took over massive debts originated in the financial sector to save banks. Four and a half trillion euros had been risked for bailouts – and the final bill was 1,7 trillion euro. Not only did this send national economies spiralling downwards and set off a public debt crisis, it also led to a regime of harsh austerity policies, imposed by the EU institutions and the IMF as conditions for loans.
With that in mind, the banking union sounds heaven sent. It is claimed to make the banking sector safe, and should there be problems, a new system would ensure failed banks are wound down in an orderly manner with expenses paid by the banks themselves, with only a minimal cost to the public purse. An end not only to financial instability, but to austerity loan programmes as well.
If all this sounds unreal, it's because it is. The banking union has been oversold as a fix to the banking sector. It may sound appealing that in the wake of the financial crisis, the potential power of EU institutions should be employed to address the dangers of financial markets. But in practise, the model adopted has deep flaws and carries so many risks, that one might ask if the point is to protect the public or serve the big banks.
Corporate Europe Observator — Exposing the power of corporate lobbying in the EUA union for big banks
A union for big banks
The financial lobby
(h/t Ralph Musgrave)

Marge Baker — First Things First: Until We Fix Our Democracy Problem, It's Hard to Fix Any Problem

In the four years since the Supreme Court’s infamous Citizens United v. FEC ruling, two things have become abundantly clear.
First, we have a major democracy problem. Citizens United paved the way for unlimited corporate spending to distort our elections. Staggering amounts of money have poured into our political system since the Court handed down that decision.
Second, and just as importantly, it’s become clear that until we fix that democracyproblem, it’s hard to fix any problem. In other words, until we fix the funding of our political campaigns, we can’t fix the individual issues that matter most to everyday Americans.
This has proven true across the board. Whether the issue you’re most concerned about is making your community safer, guaranteeing that your family has access to clean water, or ensuring that workers get a fair minimum wage, when wealthy special interests can buy their way into the hearts, minds, and votes of elected officials, progress on these issues will continue to stall.
Clearly, when moneyed interests can spend virtually without limitation to influence our elections, they can set the political agenda.
Truthout | OpEd
First Things First: Until We Fix Our Democracy Problem, It's Hard to Fix Any Problem
Marge Baker, OtherWords

Dr. Housing Bubble — States where all-cash buying has gone wild for the new feudal lords

The growing disparity of income in the world is a major talking point at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Apparently there are only so many yachts and extra homes a rich hedge fund manager can buy. This large divide is only expanding and consequences are showing up in odd ways like large dark pools of money flooding into the once stale residential real estate market (the place where most Americans used to build their wealth). It was interesting to hear pundits act like apologists for the banking industry with the bailouts acting as if this would help the middle class. Well here we are in 2014 and most of the gains from 2009 have gone to a very small connected portion of our population. This new rentier class is dominating a large part of the residential market. In some states, more than 50 percent of residential real estate sales are going to investors. I was digging through some reports and saw that Florida, the younger sister of California had something like 62.5 percent of all sales going to all-cash buyers (that is, no mortgage was recorded on the sale). Who needs the plebs when you can buy up the entire Monopoly board!

Rana Foroohar — Bitcoin Solves a Huge Problem for the Global Economy

I think Bitcoin reflects the fact that while commerce is increasingly global and digital, money isn’t.
Time — The Curious Capitalist
Bitcoin Solves a Huge Problem for the Global Economy
Rana Foroohar

Transnational Institute — State of Power 2014


The Transnational Institute is proud to launch its third annual ‘State of Power’ report as the World Economic Forum meets in Davos. This anthology exposes and analyses the principal power-brokers, members of the “Davos class”, who have caused financial, economic, social and ecological crises worldwide.

Unless we know which elites control our wealth and resources, understand how they influence political and social processes, and can identify the systems, structures and policies by which they maintain their power, TNI believes our hopes for advancing social and environmental justice are slim. Justice demands a recalibration of power and that requires us to better understand it.

This collection of essays and accompanying infographics draws attention to key dimensions of power and its exercise in our globalised world. These contributions first highlight how power is hidden and concealed. The peasants who lose land or whose river is polluted by mining may not know the name of the owner or corporation threatening their livelihood. They certainly will not know which transnationals are buying the minerals, the politicians who signed the trade deals to facilitate its extraction, or the elusive corporate lobbying groups that successfully pushed through those deals.
Transnational Institute
State of Power 2014 (PDF download)
(h/t Matias Vernengo of Naked Keynesianism)

Derek Thompson — The Story of Globalization in 1 Graph


The Atlantic
The Story of Globalization in 1 Graph
Derek Thompson