Bill Mitchell — Britain continues to defy Project Fear

Regular readers will know that I have been following the path of the British economy post-Referendum in 2016 to see whether the doomsday that the Remainers predicted was likely. It became colloquially known as ‘Project Fear’ as mainstream economists, so-called progressive economists who had their snout in the Labour Party as advisors (and we know where that took the Party), institutions like the Treasury and the Bank of England, all pumped out a sequence of terrible predictions about what would happen to the British economy should the Leave vote succeed. The predictions started in the lead up to the June vote. Immediate recession was forecast. That didn’t happen. Then new forecasts came out – with longer term disasters predicted. As each prediction horizon passed without disaster, the predictions morphed, new horizons were introduced, more nuanced analysis was presented. And, as nothing much has happened to ratify their fears (and lies), the Project has abated somewhat. The latest data shows that the Project is as moribund as it ever was....

Bill Mitchell – billy blog
Britain continues to defy Project Fear

Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

Bill Mitchell — Latest instalment in Project Fear is not very scary at all despite the headlines

A short blog post today – being Wednesday. I am still catching up on things after being away for a few weeks. The British Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) offered its latest contribution to Project Fear this week with their claim that the fiscal response to a no-deal Brexit would “would send government debt to its highest level in more than half a century”. Sounds scary. Which, of course, was the intention. That is what Project Fear is about. Creating illusions of disaster to discipline the political debate in a particular direction. Nothing new about that. But the media, including the UK Guardian had lurid headlines such as – No-deal Brexit would ‘push national debt to levels last seen in 60s’ (October 8, 2019). But if you think about it the worst case estimates are hardly anything to worry about, even if we took the estimates seriously and were concerned about movements in public debt ratios for a currency-issuing nation (which I am not). Here are a few graphs so that all my British friends can come from under their bed covers and face the day with a smile as the No-Deal data gets closer....

Bill Mitchell – billy blog
Latest instalment in Project Fear is not very scary at all despite the headlines
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

Bill Mitchell — The EU pronouncement of a Greek success ignores the reality

I keep reading ridiculous articles about Brexit in the UK Guardian. The latest was comparing it to pre-WWI Britain and suggesting there were no signs of a “Damascene moment remainers hoped for”. I thought that reference was apposite – given the reference invokes St Paul’s conversion after he was struck blind. Good analogy – blind and remainer. The Brexit imbroglio is all the more puzzling because it seems to be a massive mismatch of scale – a currency-issuing nation and an organisation with no currency and no democratic legitimacy. And that is before one even contemplates the nature of that organisation. On August 20. 2019, the European Union provided us with a perfect example of why no responsible government would want to be part of it. In its – Daily News 20/08/2019 – there were three items. The last item told us that construction output in the EU28 had declined by 0.3 per cent in June 2019. The first item was a sort of cock-a-hoop boast about how great Greece is after the EU saved it from disaster. Parallel universe sort of stuff. Britain will thank its lucky stars after October 31, 2019 when it goes free from that madness. Even though the remainers remain ‘blind’ without their Damascene moment”….

Bill Mitchell – billy blog
The EU pronouncement of a Greek success ignores the reality
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

John Helmer — PRIVATE BLIND EYE – HOW THE LAST BRITISH INVESTIGATIVE JOURNALIST TURNS ONE ON RUSSIA

What Private Eye has failed to investigate is how Chernukhin has been able to import and invest a fortune in the UK, with the imprimatur of the British Government, financial regulators, and banks – a fortune whose origin when he was a state official in Moscow Chernukhin declines to explain....

On the say-so of Kasyanov and Kudrin, Chernukhin supervised VEB’s takeover of most Russian pension fund contributions; management of Soviet-era debts owed to Moscow by states like Czechoslovakia and Vietnam; and bail-out loans for companies designated by Kasyanov, Kudrin, or Putin as politically valuable; these included state media companies. When Kasyanov began to threaten Putin with political competition, he was dismissed from the prime ministry in 2004. At the same time Chernukhin was fired from the chairmanship of VEB. He then moved to London.

The High Court papers and media reports indicate that he took with him and then spent at least £150 million acquiring personal and commercial assets. As he did that, Chernukhin was sheltered by the British Government which granted him British citizenship. In 2006 Moscow reporters were asking in print where Chernukhin’s money had come from. “Why”, wrote Semyon Goncharov of KM.ru, “don’t the British authorities ask the Russian oligarchs the question: where, thanks to what, and at the expense of whom did they get their fortunes?… As for Vladimir Chernukhin, the British authorities may have been embarrassed to ask him where the former deputy Minister got 135 million dollars to buy the office building of Midland Bank, because his official salary is clearly not enough to collect such money.”

Chernukhin was asked last month to clarify the appearance of this discrepancy and to account for the origin of his wealth in line with the current British statutes. He refused to reply....

Dances with Bears

PRIVATE BLIND EYE – HOW THE LAST BRITISH INVESTIGATIVE JOURNALIST TURNS ONE ON RUSSIA
John Helmer

Craig Murray — On Being a Dissenting Voice in 2018

The site is just back up at 16.42 on 21 March having managed to slip like the Tardia into another dimension and thus dodge the massive DOS attack we are under. over 50,000 separate IP addresses simultaneously throwing up millions of hits. The attack has not actually stopped and does seem to have a human intelligence changing terms and directing it, which could make for an interesting afternoon. Once our excellent techs get a minute from fighting it, we will post the cloudfare graphs as evidence.

I just thought I might give you a little taste of what it means to your personal life to express dissent from the government line in the UK in 2018. Let me start with this combined effort from the UK’s most popular website, Guido Fawkes, which fanatically supports the government, and the Blairite crew at “The Guardian”....

Taking down dissent. A fine "liberal" tradition.

Craig Murray Blog
On Being a Dissenting Voice in 2018
Craig Murray, formerly British ambassador to Uzbekistan and Rector of the University of Dundee

Mary Dejevsky — The British Government’s response to Sergei Skripal proves we’ve learnt nothing from the Iraq War

On Iraq, the UK’s version of “the facts” was embraced by pretty much all our political establishment and many of our allies – with the honourable exception of the French, the Germans, the late Charles Kennedy and his little band of Lib Dems, and – yes, let it not be forgotten – the leader of today’s Labour opposition, Jeremy Corbyn. It was a version that proved to be disastrously wrong. Yet a combination of Tony Blair’s persuasive powers, naïve acceptance of the need for national unity, and an exaggerated sense of the UK’s importance led us down this fatal path. Those who dared to object – including the million who took to the streets – were dismissed as deluded and unpatriotic.

Tony Blair is still walking free and thumbing his nose at the world with no show of remorse over the havoc that he and G. W. Bush wreaked.

Now they want to do it again?

This is what happens when there is no accountability.

Independent (UK)
The British Government’s response to Sergei Skripal proves we’ve learnt nothing from the Iraq War

Mary Dejevsky 

RT West launches massive campaign to kick ‘inconvenient’ Russia out of UN Security Council – Senator

A motive emerges.

Would difficult to impossible to get buy-in from China. That won't stop the West from trying though.

It looks like the world order is crumbling.

RT
West launches massive campaign to kick ‘inconvenient’ Russia out of UN Security Council – Senator

Xinhua — Direct China-Britain freight train likely to reshape trade, says logistics chief

The direct China-Britain freight train is likely to shake up traditional trade patterns as speed and reliability are the key in modern supply, said Nichola Silveira, general manager of Logistics of DP World London Gateway.

The first China-bound freight train carrying British products left DP World London Gateway terminal on April 10 and arrived at eastern China's Yiwu city known as China's "world supermarket" after a 19-day journey.

"This was the pilot run and now we are working to establish a weekly service that will touch many provinces in China... and come directly into the UK," said Silveira, whose company boasts the largest rail terminal in Britain, told Xinhua in an interview at London Gateway logistics park, some 48 km east of central London.

The direct train service, a significant part of the Belt and Road Initiative proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013, is reshaping the supply chain between Britain and China as train is more reliable and cheaper than air freight and much faster than sending goods by sea, said Silveira...

London is the 15th city in Europe to join in the China-Europe freight train services. The first Chinese freight train arrived in London in January.

China now has express freight services to 28 European cities. More than 5,000 trips are expected to be made by 2020, according to the China Railway Corporation.

Ecns
Direct China-Britain freight train likely to reshape trade, says logistics chief

Xinhua

Also

OAN
China Says Trade Likely To Grow At Double-Digit Rate This Year If Trend Continues

Rob Crilly — Justin Trudeau tells Donald Trump he will block Boeing contracts over Bombardier tariff row

The first trade war of the Trump administration is with — Canada! Not counting sanctions as trade war, of course. Sanctions are just war by non-military means.

Justin Trudeau, the Canadian Prime Minister, told President Donald Trump on Wednesday he would block his country’s armed forces from buying Boeing aircraft if the US presses ahead with plans to slap import tariffs of 300 percent on Bombardier aeroplanes.

The issue is threatening to ignite a trade war between the US, Canada and the UK, where the Canadian planemaker employs about 4,000 people in Belfast.…

And the UK!

Theresa May, the Prime Minster, responded by saying the US was risking a trade war and warned Boeing that it was jeopardising future deals with the Ministry of Defence to supply aircraft such as its Apache helicopters.

Not sure that DJT has thought this trade thing through.

The Telegraph
Justin Trudeau tells Donald Trump he will block Boeing contracts over Bombardier tariff row

Rob Crilly

Will Denayer — The Great Repeal Bill: the neoliberal assault on democracy and human rights

The Great Repeal Bill grants May’s ministers the power to rewrite reams of British law without democratic oversight. Not only will there be no longer an equivalent to the Francovich ruling. The Great Repeal Bill will also diminish human, civic, social and environmental rights. It will considerably strengthen the position of the executive. A British Bill of Rights and “free” trade deals will replace the Human Rights Act and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. Agreements will empower global corporations to sue the government in secret courts any time ‘state regulation’ stands in the way of corporate profit. It is the neoliberal assault on democracy and human rights in full action....

flassbeck economics international
The Great Repeal Bill: the neoliberal assault on democracy and human rights
Will Denayer

Patricia Pino — The fringe event that promises to empower Labour’s Progressives against neoliberalism

Professor Bill Mitchell – a major proponent of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) – will attend a Labour Conference fringe event this September, it’s a rare opportunity progressives must seize.…

Through the mass misinformation that is the neoliberal doctrine, the elites created a set of economic rules which presents them and only them as the indispensable saviours of society, and thus the only entity that must directly benefit from economic policy. They then dressed this fantasy as common sense, aided by their media sycophants whose very positions depend on the continued support from the wealthy classes. Dissent against this destructive order is presented as madness. Obedience is absolute: the poor think they must protect their masters, even at the expense of their own wellbeing.

In fact, every ill of society, every injustice, every incident of exploitation and systematic cruelty, finds its justification in some false economic dogma that goes unquestioned. And that is why the fight for social change goes hand in hand with economic reform....

If this movement belongs primarily to the young, then it is time for them to take the lead. Until millennials arm themselves with strong economic arguments, they will be defenceless when the establishment blames their money troubles on indulgence, their growing personal debt on irresponsibility and their joblessness on laziness. Until millennials can explain why these societal issues are a direct result of economic policy, the establishment will continue to promote them as individuals’ problems. The difficulties presented by a population that has endured 40 years of neoliberal indoctrination cannot be underestimated....

Help the organisers: visit the Crowdfunding page for this event. 

The Pileus

The fringe event that promises to empower Labour’s Progressives against neoliberalism

Patricia Pino

also by Patricia Pino:

Recently, I had the opportunity to discuss MMT at length with Professor Bill Mitchell himself. My objective was to find a way to explain its fundamentals in a way which could be easily understood by anyone, without the requirement of an academic background. He was kind enough to help me in this task.

To understand MMT, it is best to start by comparing it to Neoliberalism.…

It should now be evident why the neoliberal model presents a destructive path. Immediate environmental and human concerns (namely climate change and destitution) are relegated to issues of secondary importance. But to replace this model with that proposed by MMT a number of challenges remain.…

The following are a few basic principles of MMT which must be understood in order to challenge the neoliberal myths:

Labour’s economic alternative to neoliberalism

Bill Mitchell — Something is rotten in the state of … Britain

When I was trawling through the British fiscal statements in 2010 and 2011, hidden in all the detail (an obscure Annexe) was a very explicit statement that told me that the British government was inflicting austerity on the economy and relying largely on the growth of non-government indebtedness to offset the fiscal drag and restore the growth cycle. In the same documents but more visible (in the main fiscal statement), the Government was claiming that the non-government debt position that had deteriorated sharply in the lead up to the crisis was unsustainable as a growth strategy. The mainstream press didn’t pick up on the contradiction. Now, the same press seems alarmed with the latest data from the British Office of National Statistics that shows that the Government’s strategy has been working like a charm – the non-government saving ratio has plunged, household debt escalated sharply, non-mortgage debt has accelerated and to top of the impending disaster – real household disposable income growth has been negative for three successive quarters (the first time since the mid-1970s). None of these trends are surprising. I predicted them 6 or 7 years ago. I have been watching the results steadily unfold. But for the mainstream commentators it is all a big headline – ‘look at what we have discovered’ ….

Bill Mitchell – billy blog
Something is rotten in the state of … Britain
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

Edward Harrison — Anarchy in UK politics means lower yields and ends austerity as we know it

My conclusion here is that the conditions that created underperformance in the first quarter are still in place and will pressure UK wages and growth. The result will be more accommodative monetary policy than otherwise expected, and probably more accommodative fiscal policy as well....

I see the vote for Brexit in 2016 and the vote this past Thursday both as expressions by middle class Britons for more economic opportunity. In 2016, the EU was the object of scorn. This past election, the UK’s own government suffered at the polls due to middle class disenchantment. The Prime Minister’s colleagues are backing her for now, because they want to avoid a messy leadership contest just as Brexit has started. However, if things don’t change once negotiations are underway, Theresa May could find herself out of a job. And this uncertainty adds additional downside pressure to the British economy.

Credit Writedowns
Anarchy in UK politics means lower yields and ends austerity as we know it

Edward Harrison

See also

The economics for populism no longer exist in Europe

Neil Wilson — From Universal Credit to Job Guarantee

How Universal Credit in the UK already has the tools to support the Job Guarantee

Modern Money Matters
From Universal Credit to Job Guarantee
Neil Wilson

Binoy Kampmark — Electoral Interference as Reality: A Long History of Manipulation, Bribery and Covert Ops

Sordid history of US and UK interference.

Global Research
Electoral Interference as Reality: A Long History of Manipulation, Bribery and Covert Ops
Dr. Binoy Kampmark | Commonwealth Scholar at Selwyn College, Cambridge, and lecturer at RMIT University, Melbourne

Sputnik International — UK to Lead Joint War Games in Persian Gulf Simulating Conflict with Iran

The US, UK, France and Australia will run a war games drill in the Persian Gulf that will simulate a confrontation with Iran.

While Trump and Putin are talking on the phone for the first time.

Is the Trumpster as crazy as Killary, or possibly crazier?

Sputnik International
UK to Lead Joint War Games in Persian Gulf Simulating Conflict with Iran

Bill Mitchell — Austerity is the problem for Britain not Brexit

Regular readers will know that I firmly supported the LEAVE vote in the British referendum in June 2016 even though that was somewhat gratuitous given I am neither a British citizen or live there. It was one of those academic exercises where we wax lyrical with little personal at stake. But that aside, if I had have been a British citizen then I would have voted to leave without doubt. The Internet links us more closely these days and in before the Referendum vote I received heaps of antagonist E-mails informing me that I was bereft of all credibility in taking that position. After the vote, when I dared to point out that the official (Bank of England, Treasury, IMF, OECD) and non-official predictions (the investment bankers etc – remember Credit Suisse sending out a Mayday alert of an impending recession which would wipe out 500,000 jobs!) were over the top to say the least (given the post-vote data), I was called delusional and worse. And these personal attacks came mostly from those who claim to be on the progressive side of the debate. Spare the thought! Subsequent data has indeed pointed out that none of the predictions of doom have so far turned out to be true. I know there might be longer term issues when they get onto working out the detail but I stand by my view – Brexit – if handled correctly by the British government will be a net benefit to the nation and its democracy. If not it could offer no real gains. But in this smokescreen of misinformation, a serious study from Cambridge University researchers – The macro-economic impact of Brexit – has concluded, that while there might be some short-run losses in GDP per capita, they soon recover as the British economy adjusts to its break from the dysfunctional European Union. There is no disaster scenario forthcoming!...

Bill Mitchell – billy blog
Austerity is the problem for Britain not Brexit
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

Moon of Alabama — U.S./UK Paid "White Helmets" Help Blocking Water To 5 Million Thirsty Syrians

The blockade of water from Wadi Barada to 5 million people in Damascus is taking an interesting turn. The U.S. and UK financed White Helmet organization seems to be directly involved in it. This increases the suspicion that the illegal blockade of water to civilians in Damascus is part of a organized campaign under U.S. command. The campaign is designed to block utilities to government held areas as revenge for the liberation of east Aleppo.…

Smoking gun.

Diabolical, if so. But after all, the US is the only country to have used nuclear weapons and the only liberal country to have officially instituted a policy of torture. What to expect?

Moon of Alabama
U.S./UK Paid "White Helmets" Help Blocking Water To 5 Million Thirsty Syrians
b

See also

The Enemy Du Jour Is Always Hacking

Rebecca Gordon — In Yemen, Yet Another Undeclared U.S. War

On how many countries is U.S. ordnance falling at the moment? Some put the total at six; others, seven. For the record, those seven would be Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, Somalia, Syria, and, oh yes, Yemen.

The United States has been directing drone strikes against what it calls al-Qaeda targets in Yemen since 2002, but our military involvement in that country increased dramatically in 2015 when U.S. ally Saudi Arabia inserted itself into a civil war there. Since then, the United States has been supplying intelligence and mid-air refueling for Saudi bombers (many of them American-made F-15s sold to that country). The State Department has also approved sales to the Saudis of $1.29 billion worth of bombs — “smart” and otherwise — together with $1.15 billion worth of tanks, and half a billion dollars of ammunition. And that, in total, is only a small part of the $115 billion total in military sales the United States has offered Saudi Arabia since President Obama took power in 2009.

Why are American bombs being dropped on Yemen by American-trained pilots from American-made planes?….

The Saudi-led coalition includes Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, Sudan, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain. Between March 2015 and the end of August 2016, according to the Yemen Data Project, an independent, nonpartisan group of academics and human rights organizations, the coalition launched more than 8,600 air strikes. At least a third of them struck civilian targets, including, the Guardian reports, “school buildings, hospitals, markets, mosques and economic infrastructure.”…

Why is Saudi Arabia, along with its allies, aided by the United States and, to a lesser extent, the United Kingdom, fighting in Yemen?…

So, once again, why do the Saudis (and their Sunni Gulf State allies) care so much about the roiling internal politics and conflicts of their desperately poor neighbor to the south? It’s true that the Houthis have managed to lob some rockets into Saudi Arabia and conduct a few cross-border raids, but they hardly represent an existential threat to that country.
The Saudis firmly believe, however, that Iran represents such a threat. As Saudi diplomatic documents described in the New York Times suggest, that country has “a near obsession with Iran.” They see the hand of that Shi’a nation everywhere, and certainly everywhere that Shi’a minorities have challenged Sunni or secular rulers, including Iraq.

There seems to be little evidence that Iran supported the Houthis (who represent a minority variant of Shi’a Islam) in any serious way — at least until the Saudis got into the act. Even now, according to a report in the Washington Post, the Houthis “are not Iranian puppets.” Their fight is local and the support they get from Iran remains “limited and far from sufficient to make more than a marginal difference to the balance of forces in Yemen, a country awash with weapons. There is therefore no supporting evidence to the claim that Iran has bought itself any significant measure of influence over Houthi decision-making.”

So to return to where we began: why exactly has Washington supported the Saudi war in Yemen so fully and with such clout? The best guess is that it’s a make-up present to Saudi Arabia, a gesture to help heal the rift that opened when the Obama administration concluded its July 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran. Under that agreement’s terms, Iran vowed “that it will under no circumstances ever seek, develop, or acquire any nuclear weapons” in return for the United States lifting years of economic sanctions.

The US has no direct national interest in Yemen.

Lobe Log
In Yemen, Yet Another Undeclared U.S. War

Rebecca Gordon

Nassim Nicholas Taleb — The Syrian War Condensed: A more Rigorous Way to Look at the Conflict

I guess Taleb's blog is a fake news site that promotes Russian propaganda.

Medium
The Syrian War Condensed: A more Rigorous Way to Look at the Conflict

Nassim Nicholas Taleb