Wednesday, October 5, 2016

Hurricane Update


True scientists at work, they modify their models in response to changing conditions and don't just stick to the original model.



Still CAT 3, get the hell out of there.


9 comments:

Andrew Anderson said...

True scientists at work, they modify their models in response to changing conditions Franko

Updating data inputs does not constitute modifying a model.

Bob said...

In addition, meteorologists make a forecast based on predictions from several models.
Can economists do that?

Matthew Franko said...

You are looking at the model in the image I posted....

Model: "a thing used as an example to follow "

The illustration is the model... its been updated from last week when they said it was going to go up into the gulf...

Ryan Harris said...

Yes, the economists can make predictions but they must be short in duration and narrow over where they are applied to have a useful confidence. Every economic data point released each day comes with consensus estimates generated using different modelling techniques. Most of the time, they are in the ball-park of what could be considered an uncertainty cone similar to meteorology.

jrbarch said...

Although comparison between basins is difficult Matt: Tropical cyclone scales

MRW said...

If you want to follow this with someone who knows what he's talking about, go to http://www.weatherbell.com/premium and watch the Daily Update under Public Videos on the right side.

Meteorologist Bastardi followed this when it led off the African coast several weeks ago, and warned that it was going to be a big one. According to him, the European model has been completely accurate. He can't show the model any longer in his public videos, only on their premium site, but he can talk about it. weatherbell produces their own model.

Bastardi says that the US model put out by the US Hurricane Center has been consistently off.

Daily Update is only about 2-3 minutes long. Their Weekly Saturday summary (public) can be anywhere from 8 minutes to 20 minutes. Last Saturday's summary talks about how and why this hurricane got so big. There are more coming.

As for models in general? They allow you to forecast, and all you forecast accurately is 10 days out. The fiction that you can forecast a century of weather to establish future climate is this side of lunacy.

MRW said...

Winner of idiotic statement of the week: Updating data inputs does not constitute modifying a model.

Weather models don't just update data inputs. That's done every six hours by one particular US government agency that automatically supplies it for all weather forecasters, meteorologists, climate scientists, etc worldwide. It is considered highly reliable.

Different models choose different variables to include in their models. And that was what Matt was saying.

Andrew Anderson said...

I'd say your comment wins that award, MRW, since I see nothing to substantiate it in Franko's post.

My thanks for the Brave recommendation though; it's blazing fast - until it has to be relaunched.

Bob said...

Climatology is not meteorology scaled up from 10 days to 100 years. That would be lunacy.