Saturday, March 25, 2017

Brian Romanchuk — Can't Anybody Here Play This Game?

Is this cycle topping out?

Bond Economics


Ryan Harris said...

Let's frame this as a test of the confidence fairy type econ theories. All the confidence and optimism indexes went straight up after the election.

Real business investment and measures of commercial real estate, business loans, employment and durable/capital goods orders must show a spike for the confidence fairy school of economics to be true. If not they should be tossed in the bin and not revisited.

Brian Romanchuk said...

That argument leaves out all of the unobservable economic variables like r*. They just move to cancel out the rise in business confidence!

Lesson: circular logic is fun!