Sunday, August 16, 2020

The Plan That Could Give Us Our Lives Back


The U.S. has never had enough coronavirus tests. Now a group of epidemiologists, economists, and dreamers is plotting a new strategy to defeat the virus, even before a vaccine is found.


Michael mina, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard, believes we could have covid-19 under control within weeks, but not all epidemiologists are convinced. His optimism, though, that it can work is inspiring.

The Atlantic 



7 comments:

lastgreek said...

Yes, indeed, the same Michael Mina who was a guest on This Week in Virology last ... month ;)

TWiV 640: Test often, fast turnaround, with Michael Mina (July 16, 2020)

Michael Mina joins TWiV to reveal why frequent and rapid SARS-CoV-2 testing is more important than accuracy, how a daily $1 rapid test could control the pandemic, and why group testing works.

https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-640/

I've listened to this episode three times already (yes, I'm a slow learner :( )

Full, no joke, Disclosure: My mother, on my strong recommendation, has been taking a vitamin D tablet for over a year. Hypocrite? Moi? lol ... of course not. Placebo!

lastgreek said...

Also,

Michael Levitt @MLevitt_NP2013 · Jul 25

US COVID19 will be done in 4 weeks with a total reported death below 170,000. How will we know it is over? Like for Europe, when all cause excess deaths are at normal level for week. Reported COVID19 deaths may continue after 25 Aug. & reported cases will, but it will be over. twitter.com/MLevitt_NP2013…

Hard to believe that my 80-year-old mother with only an elementary education has more common sense than this Nobel Laureate (Chemistry) fool above. He is the perfect example of what Nassim Taleb refers to as an Intellectual Yet Idiot.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

Why does anyone take Michael Levitt seriously?
It's not that his predictions are wrong (they are), but worse: it is unrigorous to engage in single point predictions (n=1) in a high variance &/or Fat Tailed environment.

lastgreek said...

Too quickly add,

Anyone interested in taking a beginner's course in Statistics/Probability, let me know and I'll post a few excellent and free online courses that are on youtube, also some free pdf texts for practice problems (with solutions) :)

Matt Franko said...

Taleb thinks “fat tails!” are REAL....

Matt Franko said...

Taleb is probably still short.... or he put new shorts on....

Matt Franko said...

“Fat tailed environment “ = “deficit spending”

There is just an environment and there is just spending....

Matt Franko said...

Whether you can illustrate activity as “fat tailed” or whether you can illustrate there was a deficit BOTH are determined ex post ...

It’s like trying to drive in the rear view mirror..,, doesn’t work...