Moon of Alabama — Pyongyang Talks - How Pompeo Put The Cart Before The Horse

Good summary overall.

It is not discernible what Trump really wants. It might well be that he has not made up his mind, or that he changes his position as the days go by.

Of course, "what Trump wants" is quite discernible. He wants to win the negotiation and exactly what "winning" means is never in the interest of the negotiator to disclose. Negotiation is dialectical, involving a series of offers by the parties in a sort of ritual dance, "may the best dancer win."

Singapore got the negotiation process going. The US offer of the US would quite naturally be completely denuclearization as quickly as possible (Bolton had mentioned year). Quite obviously that would be rejected since capitulation was never on the table.

So now we will see whether the negotiation continues "in good faith," or Trump plays the "brinkmanship" card, which he is often wont to do.

Anyway the first round or actual negotiating a deal is now over, ending with "no deal."That was to be expected.

Strategically, this kind of negotiation is very different from business negotiation in that politics is involved on both sides, with both leaders having to bring along their supports and neutralizing their opposition.

For Trump, this first round was largely about neutralizing the domestic opposition by presenting a "hard line."

There are other players involved also, most importantly China, Russia and Japan, all of whom want to see the Korean peninsula denuclearized and North Korea opened up to commerce. This is Kim's goal and that of South Korean President Moon as well. This is consonant with the goal of the US.

However, the US does not want to see the Korean Peninsula become geopolitically neutral as do the other parties.  This will be the real sticking point if things get that far.

Moon of Alabama
Pyongyang Talks - How Pompeo Put The Cart Before The Horse

b

See also

Geopolitics Alert
US Feigns Shock That DPRK Expects Concessions for DisarmamentJim Carey

Pepe Escobar — The key word in the Trump-Kim show

Pepe gets this absolutely correct. Most US-centric analysts have missed the obvious. 

As I wrote previously, this is about the the US getting out of the way while North and South Korea work on a peace agreement and North Korea opens up to the world economy as China did under Deng. 

Kim has been wanting to do this for some time, but the US establishment and hardliners in South Korea have been obstacles. Those obstacles are receding under Moon and Trump. Peace in the area is actually in sight as long as hardliners in the US and South Korea don't manage to disrupt the process.

While the Kim-Trump summit did not produce a binding agreement, I would say that the outcome is somewhat similar to a letter of intent in business. It is an intent to begin a process of escalation on all sides. In it North Korea and the US affirm the Panmunjom Declaration that Kim and Moon signed on to previously. 

Hopefully, this will lead to formal agreements that will likely involve treaties, most importantly a peace treaty between the North and South that brings the Korean War to a close.

This was not actually negotiated by Kim and Trump at their summit. The negotiations had already taken place in the preceding weeks and the summit was just the political theater to "sell" it. 

It was important for Kim and Trump to meet, however, since they will have to work together with each other, as well as Moon, Xi, Abe and Putin since South Korea, China, Japan and Russia are interested parties in the outcome on the Korean Peninsula.

Asia Times
The key word in the Trump-Kim show

Pepe Escobar

Bloomberg — Trump Says South Korea Has His 'Blessing' for North Korea Peace Deal

Trump suggested he was responsible not only for the negotiations on a formal peace treaty ending the war but also the success of this year’s winter Olympics in South Korea.

“They’ve been very generous that without us and without me in particular, I guess, they wouldn’t be discussing anything and the Olympics would have been a failure,” Trump said. “As you know North Korea participated in the Olympics and it was really quite an Olympics. It was quite a success. That would not have happened.”...

The art of the deal.

Bloomberg
Trump Says South Korea Has His 'Blessing' for North Korea Peace Deal

Toluse Olorunnipa and Margaret Talev

Intel Today Dr Jeffrey S. Kaye — U.S. Dropped Plague-infected Fleas on North Korea in March 1952

While U.S. forces carpet bombed North Korea, bombed irrigation dams, and threatened nuclear attack, their most controversial action was the use of bacteriological or biological weapons during the war.

For decades, the U.S. has strenuously denied the use of such weapons. At the same time, evidence of such use was kept from the American people. Even today, very few are aware of what really happened. Only in February 2018 was a full documentary report on the U.S. use of germ warfare during the Korean War, prepared and written by mostly West European scientists 66 years ago, released online in easy-to-read format.…

Recalls the European Americans giving Native Americans smallpox laced blankets.

Intel Today
Dr Jeffrey S. Kaye — U.S. Dropped Plague-infected Fleas on North Korea in March 1952

L

Doug Tsruruoka — ‘N. Korean missiles can reach Chicago, would not be stopped’

US arms control expert: Hwasong-14 could even reach East Coast, but US anti-missile defenses probably couldn't shoot it down. Pyongyang likely has warhead that fits, he adds.

Does NK have a nuclear deterrent?

Asia Times
‘N. Korean missiles can reach Chicago, would not be stopped’
Doug Tsruruoka

Global Times Editorial — Trump’s UN address reduces hope of peace on Korean Peninsula

The Chinese view.

Global Times | Editorial
Trump’s UN address reduces hope of peace on Korean Peninsula

Gary Leupp — Why Would 58% Favor U.S. Bombing of North Korea?

A new Gallup poll indicates the 58% of U.S. residents polled say they favor U.S. military action against North Korea if the U.S. “cannot accomplish its goals by more peaceful means first.” Like most polls it is tendentiously worded.

What are “its goals”? U.S. goals? What national, discussed and decided, “goals” do we have (as a nation) as regards the Korean peninsula?

I’m actually a U.S. citizen and a specialist in East Asian history. Frankly, I know a lot about Korea....

Counterpunch
Why Would 58% Favor U.S. Bombing of North Korea?
Gary Leupp is Professor of History at Tufts University, and holds a secondary appointment in the Department of Religion

Also

Asia Times
Unmasked: Trump Doctrine vows carnage for new axis of evil

Pepe Escobar

Steve Holland and Jeff Mason — At U.N., Trump warns U.S. may have to "totally destroy" North Korea

U.S. President Donald Trump warned on Tuesday that the United States will be forced to “totally destroy” North Korea unless Pyongyang backs down from its nuclear standoff, mocking North Korean leader Kim Jong Un as a “rocket man” on a suicide mission.

Loud murmurs filled the green-marbled U.N. General Assembly hall when Trump issued his sternest warning yet to North Korea, whose ballistic missile launches and nuclear tests have rattled the globe.

Unless North Korea backs down, he said, “We will have no choice than to totally destroy North Korea.”

“Rocket man is on a suicide mission for himself and his regime,” he said....

Boom! Donald Trump just totally destroyed what was left of American soft power. The mask is off.

Reuters
At U.N., Trump warns U.S. may have to "totally destroy" North Korea
Steve Holland and Jeff Mason

See also

The war against Islam is on, too.

The Daily Caller
Trump Calls Out ‘Radical Islamic Terrorism’ By Name At UN

Saagar Enjeti

Trump faces high stakes in his speech before the U.N., where he's charged with selling his "America first" agenda to world leaders, many of whom have chafed at his criticism of international institutions and agreements.

The Hill
Trump: I will always put America First

Max Greenwood

Francesco Sisci — The forbidden questions about the Korea crisis

The sensible approach. But it's off the table. Sisci asks why.

Asia Times
The forbidden questions about the Korea crisis
Francesco Sisci

Gregory Clark — Former Japanese Diplomat Hitoshi Tanaka Fears War on Horizon

Another backgrounder on Korea.

Strategic Culture Foundation
Former Diplomat Fears War on Horizon
Gregory Clark

See also

The US successfully dealt with rising nuclear powers China and Russia using diplomacy under the umbrella of deterrence. No reason that this would not work with Korea, too. The US media pictures Kim Jong Un as a madman on one hand and as evil personified on the other. This makes it difficult for the US leadership to use diplomacy. 

The reality is that like all other states, North Korea has interests and it has signaled that it want to make a deal. 

A major problem is that the US imposes unacceptable conditions that are non-negotiable as a precondition for negotiations, which is a non-starter. It's time to take a different tack. One that could be be successful. This would involve giving North Korea security guarantees. That remains unacceptable to the US leadership, however, and US public opinion has been whipped up against it.

Insider Sources
Time to Deal With North Korea

John Feffer

Pepe Escobar — The Russia-China plan for North Korea: stability, connectivity

The sane path in contrast to the insane one.

Asia Times
The Russia-China plan for North Korea: stability, connectivity

Pepe Escobar

GPA News — Putin Offers Joint Projects to Unite Russia, North and South Korea

Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed a conciliatory solution toward resolving the crisis on the Korean peninsula, noting that the incorporation of North Korea into joint development projects across the region could soothe the frayed nerves caused by the region’s militarization and the ratcheting-up of tensions.

Such a move would not only serve mutually-beneficial economic interests of the divided Korean peninsula and Russia, Putin noted, but would help build trust and strengthen stability in the region.... 

Geopolitics Alert

Putin Offers Joint Projects to Unite Russia, North and South Korea
GPA News

William R. Polk — On the Brink of Nuclear War (Korea Part 2)

In the first part of this essay, I gave my interpretation of the background of the current confrontation in Korea. I argued that, while the past is the mother of the present, it has several fathers. What I remember is not necessarily what you remember; so, in this sense, the present also shapes or reshapes the past. 

In my experience as a policy planner, I found that only by taking note of the perception of events as they are differently held by the participants could one understand or deal with present actions and ideas. I have tried to sketch out views of the past as we, the North Koreans and the South Koreans, differently view them in Part 1 of this essay.

Now I want to undertake a refinement of the record I have laid out. I want first to show how our perception, the interpretation we place on the events that swirl past us, adds a new and formative element to them. Whether consciously or not, we tend to put events into a pattern. So the pattern itself becomes part of the problem we face in trying to understand events. Staking out a path – an interpretation or a theory of what random bits and pieces mean or how they will be interpreted and acted upon by others — is a complex and contentious task.

Getting it wrong can lead us astray or even be very dangerous. So the interpreter, the strategist, must always be tested to see if his interpretation makes sense and the path he lays out is the one we want to travel. I will make this explicit below.

Consortium News
On the Brink of Nuclear War

William R. Polk

William R. Polk — MAYDAY KOREA!

Part one of backgrounder on Korea. It's a must-read for understanding the situation today.

Sic Semper Tyrannis
MAYDAY KOREA!
William R. Polk

Pat Lang — Forget the ME, think Korea

IMO the US, under ANY administration will not accept having its cities held at risk in the bizarre spectacle of a NoKo counter-value strategy.
Would the US ultimately smash a lot of NoKo in a pre-emptive attack to reduce the threat? I think so. Would the lack of a SoKo agreement on that stop the US? I doubt that.

We would undoubtedly try a Stuxie type solution first, but if that does not work ...
The NoKo reaction to big, crippling, strikes is very likely to be a massive onslaught across the DMZ. Could they capture large parts of Seoul? Yes.
Would a back and forth reminiscent of 195-53 then occur? Would millions die? Probably. Would most of the US Army and USMC end up in Korea? Probably. 

Sic Semper Tyrannis
Forget the ME, think Korea
Col. W. Patrick Lang, US Army (ret.), former military intelligence officer at the US Defense Intelligence Agency

See also

In general, Americans are ill equipped to deal with any level of complexity in world affairs above the "Captain America" and "Wonder Woman" level.

The "Eastern Bloc" and the "Russia is a Communist Country" lines live on.