Michael Hudson —Persian Powerplay

Cross-posted from The Saker: 

Introduction: After posting Michael Hudson’s article “America Escalates its “Democratic” Oil War in the Near East” on the blog, I decided to ask Michael to reply to a few follow-up questions. Michael very kindly agreed. Please see our exchange below....

Michael Hudson — On Finance, Real Estate And The Powers Of Neoliberalism
Persian Powerplay
Michael Hudson | President of The Institute for the Study of Long-Term Economic Trends (ISLET), a Wall Street Financial Analyst, Distinguished Research Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri, Kansas City, and Guest Professor at Peking University

America Escalates its “Democratic” Oil War in the Near East — Michael Hudson

The assassination was intended to escalate America’s presence in Iraq to keep control the region’s oil reserves, and to back Saudi Arabia’s Wahabi troops (Isis, Al Quaeda in Iraq, Al Nusra and other divisions of what are actually America’s foreign legion) to support U.S. control o Near Eastern oil as a buttress o the U.S. dollar. That remains the key to understanding this policy, and why it is in the process of escalating, not dying down. 

I sat in on discussions of this policy as it was formulated nearly fifty years ago when I worked at the Hudson Institute and attended meetings at the White House, met with generals at various armed forces think tanks and with diplomats at the United Nations. My role was as a balance-of-payments economist having specialized for a decade at Chase Manhattan, Arthur Andersen and oil companies in the oil industry and military spending. These were two of the three main dynamic of American foreign policy and diplomacy. (The third concern was how to wage war in a democracy where voters rejected the draft in the wake of the Vietnam War.) 

The media and public discussion have diverted attention from this strategy by floundering speculation that President Trump did it, except to counter the (non-)threat of impeachment with a wag-the-dog attack, or to back Israeli lebensraum drives, or simply to surrender the White House to neocon hate-Iran syndrome. The actual context for the neocon’s action was the balance of payments, and the role of oil and energy as a long-term lever of American diplomacy....

Michael Hudson as his best.

The Vineyard of the Saker
America Escalates its “Democratic” Oil War in the Near East

Michael Hudson | President of The Institute for the Study of Long-Term Economic Trends (ISLET), a Wall Street Financial Analyst, Distinguished Research Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri, Kansas City, and Guest Professor at Peking University

Steve Bannon’s Gift — Chris Faure

Get ready for it!

If you thought that the demonization of Russia and incessant Russophobia over the past years from the West, with hardly a highly likely shred of evidence, was unconscionable and the absolute pinnacle of all demonization campaigns ever, get ready for the demonization of China. In true Hollywood Blockbuster style, the China Fearcampaign promises to be bigger and better theater than the complete demonization of Russia. The campaign is focused, has a highly skilled leader, is sophisticated and has a clear set of objectives and operating objectives and plans. It even has its own very special movie, called “Claws of the Red Dragon”. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RvIKUIbKc6w

And like all such campaigns, it seamlessly rolls Russia in and now, Russia/China just rolls off the tongues of the imperial Hegemon.

We have grown accustomed to the Russia Bad campaign and understand and recognize how and when it is waged. This article will focus on what I call ‘the China Fear’ campaign through the eyes of Steve Bannon.

The Vineyard of the Saker
Steve Bannon’s Gift
Chris Faure

All along the watchtower: The follies of history —Pepe Escobar

Everything that happens geopolitically and geoeconomically in our turbulent times has to do with the US’ do-or-die imperial struggle against the Russia-China strategic partnership. Only total “victory,” by any means necessary, would assure the continuation of what could be defined as the New American Century.

And that brings us to the necessity of reconstructing Clausewitz’s axiom, according to which, originally, war is a continuation of politics by other means.

Clausewitz argued that war is a real political instrument. Now, Clausewitz remixed should read: Hybrid War is Politics by Other Means....

Asia Times
All along the watchtower: The follies of history

Pepe Escobar

America’s Superpower Panic — Brad DeLong

History suggests that a global superpower in relative decline should aim for a soft landing, so that it still has a comfortable place in the world once its dominance fades. By contrast, US President Donald Trump's incoherent, confrontational approach toward China could seriously damage America’s long-term interests....

In my view, there are two major or core factors not usually mentioned that need to be considered along with the many others, central and peripheral.

The first is that the US came out of WWII the victor economically, in that the rest of the major economies were destroyed. This results in a sense of entitlement based on American exceptionalism. This further led the US to adopt a policy of permanent US global hegemony as "the leader of the free world" and guarantor of the post-war liberal world order. Wilsonianism, with its foreign policy idealism and liberal interventionism followed. As a consequence, the US became an empire, which result in "internal contradictions," and the political rise of the military-industrial complex (MIC) and a "deep state."

The trend is in conflict with the second factor, which has two major factors. 

The first of these is the inevitable catching-up that took place as the destroyed countries rebuilt and undeveloped countries began to develop into emerging countries. As a result the US began losing its edge, which was inevitable, of course. But the US has yet to accept this, especially the elite that rule the world, or think they do.

The second is the concomitant de-colonization that occurred with the formerly great empires were pretty much forced to abandon their colonies owing to the workings of the historical dialectic. This process of de-colonization is in full swing now as emerging nations seek to determine their own futures based on their perceived interests, their traditions, and their aspirations. This often puts them in conflict with the liberal world order and US "leadership," which is turning more into dictat. The result is incipient resentment of and conflict with a Western-based alliance whose policy is based on neoliberalism, the concomitants of which are neo-imperialism and neocolonialism.

Project Syndicate
America’s Superpower Panic
Brad DeLong | Professor of Economics, UCAL Berkeley

Michael Hudson — Global Warming and U.S. National Security Diplomacy

Control of oil has long been a key aim of U.S. foreign policy. The Paris climate agreements and any other Green programs to reduce the pace of global warming are viewed as threatening the aim of dominating world energy markets by keeping economies dependent on oil under U.S. control. Also blocking U.S. willingness to help stem global warming is the oil industry’s economic and hence political power. Its product is not only energy but also global warming, along with plastic pollution....

Naked Capitalism
Michael Hudson: Global Warming and U.S. National Security Diplomacy
Michael Hudson | President of The Institute for the Study of Long-Term Economic Trends (ISLET), a Wall Street Financial Analyst, Distinguished Research Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri, Kansas City, and Guest Professor at Peking University

"Don't do as I do, do as I say."

Anyone see a pattern here? Any wonder why there is a push for multilateralism to counter unipolarism (read world dominance).

News in Asia
Laughable: US Claims ‘Free and Open Seas,’ Tries to Push China Out of Indian, Pacific Trade

Pepe Escobar

SouthFront
Mike Pompeo Says Foreign Actors Must Leave Venezuela, So That US Can Rebuild It

PATRICK LAWRENCE — Weaponizing the Dollar

The Trump administration’s incessant sanctions wars are curbing the dollar’s global hegemony and speeding the demise of U.S. empire.

Consortium News
PATRICK LAWRENCE: Weaponizing the Dollar

Michael Hudson Discusses the IMF and World Bank: Partners In Backwardness — Bonnie Faulkner interviews Michael Hudson

Bonnie Faulkner of Guns and Butter interviews Michael Hudson. Transcript.

Naked Capitalism
Michael Hudson Discusses the IMF and World Bank: Partners In Backwardness
Yves Smith

This Is How The U.S. Plans To Cripple Iran’s Economy — Simon Watkins

With sanctions re-imposed on Iran’s oil exports last year and recently applied in part to its petrochemicals exports as well, the U.S. is now looking to roll out the next phase of its sanctions plan against the Islamic Republic. This is to gradually employ increasingly tight sanctions on Iran’s gas sector, whilst ensuring that Europe’s mechanism for enabling ongoing business with Iran does not succeed. These policies taken together are aimed at limiting Iran’s energy export revenues to no more than US$14 billion per year, a senior energy source who works closely with Iran’s Petroleum Ministry told OilPrice.com last week. “This is the level of revenue targeted by the U.S. as being required to catalyse a popular uprising to remove the current regime in Tehran but not to cause an outright humanitarian disaster,” he added.…

The ultimate fall-back position for the U.S. – actual military intervention against Iran – remains an option, said the Iran source who added that: “The U.S. is at 90% operational readiness for full military action if necessary.” Any real or false flag action – along similar lines to the recent incidents involving oil tankers in and around the Persian Gulf – would suffice as catalysts to engage militarily but the preferred option, said the source, remains a “war of attrition” against Iran. “If the U.S. cuts all energy related revenues down to the US$14 billion cap then the Iranian people will have a big decision to make,” he concluded.

Good luck with that strategy.

Oil Price
This Is How The U.S. Plans To Cripple Iran’s Economy

Simon Watkins

Fareed Zakaria Woke Up? — Andrei Martyanov

Blowing a lead.

Reminiscence of the Future
Fareed Zakaria Woke Up?
Andrei Martyanov

See also

Checkpoint Asia
Trump Has Lost All Leverage With Iran

Marko Marjanović

Also at CA

Trump Remembers He’s the President, Tells Bolton, Pompeo to Dial It Back on Iran

Erin Banco

China’s State Media Tells Us It Picked the ‘Wrong Rival at the Wrong Time’

Teddy Ng

So, Michael Hudson Calls It — Andrei Martyanov

Hudson, who, by my primitive criteria, is one of the best (true) economics and economic history brains of our time doesn't mince the words and calls it as he sees it (correctly): Trump’s Trade Threats Are Really Cold War 2.0. Hudson correctly identifies the issue….

Reminiscence of the Future
So, Michael Hudson Calls It.
Andrei Martyanov

Andrew Korybko — Russia Warned That America’s “Golden Age” Might Lead To “Energy Colonialism”

Igor Sechin, the CEO of Rosneft and one of the most powerful people in Russia, isn’t jumping on the Alt-Media bandwagon of speculating about America’s supposedly imminent demise but is instead warning that it might actually be about to enter a “golden age”, albeit one that could very easily lead to “energy colonialism” all across the world....

And this is what is now happening. Exhibit #1 is "freedom gas." More expensive, but, hey, "freedom" doesn't come without cost.

Eurasia Future
Russia Warned That America’s “Golden Age” Might Lead To “Energy Colonialism”
Andrew Korybko

Okwonkwo — Before the US started harassing Huawei, there was Toshiba of Japan and Alstom of France in the same boat

Brook no competitors. Huawei is nothing new. But taking a country the size of China is. The US did not need the Japanese or French markets. The Chinese market is quite a different matter.

KenyaTalk
Before the US started harassing Huawei, there was Toshiba of Japan and Alstom of France in the same boat

Okwonkwo

See also

The consequence of the the 737 MAX accidents give China a tool to exert pressure of its own. The credibility of the U.S. regulator FAA is damaged as it was the last one to ground the planes. It is China that will decide when those planes are allowed back into its air. What if it does not do that. What if it buys less planes:

No other country has greater demand for aircraft: In the 20 years through 2037, Boeing estimates Chinese purchases at 7,690 new planes worth $1.2 trillion.

Airbus will be happy to sell all those planes. Unless of course Trump makes a deal and lets Huawei off the hook.

Forget Airbus. After having enormous success in military export, Russia is gearing up for the civilian market, which it will soon begin to take a piece of in any case.

Moon of Alabama
Why Trump's Huawei Ban Is Unlikely To Persist

Sharmini Peries — Russia-China Alignment Challenges U.S. Hegemony

“What's happening is that China is finally going global,” Richard Sakwa told The Real News Network’s Sharmini Peries. “[China] is leveraging its growing economic power into a network of relationships which are spanning not just Eurasia all the way to Europe, but also in Africa.”

Sakwa noted that while China is now developing a second military base, the United States has approximately 600 military bases around the world: “China is challenging not so much U.S. primacy but the way that it has managed it in the past, which is an almost exclusive sense that the United States is the global leader. Well, those days are beginning to come to an end.”...

“The Russo-Chinese alignment is not an alliance, and it's not a bloc, and it's certainly not a military alliance. But Russo-Chinese alignment is far deeper and far more extensive than many Westerners have yet caught on,” Sakwa said. “It's an alignment in which Russia and China will not do each other any harm. They will support each other when it's in their interests—and it's a game changer.”

Meanwhile, U.S. relations with China are deteriorating. Sakwa explained that neither China or Russia will be provoked by U.S. “sabre-rattling.” As is typical, he said, the current situation is a Trump miscalculation based on his tendency to go into negotiations heavy-handed and hope a deal works out, which has massively failed due to his tariff tweets.

“I'm not sure that the policy makers in Washington have fully come to terms with the way that the geo-tectonics at the global level are changing, and the One Belt, One Road initiative is the prime example of that,” Sakwa said....

TRNN

Russia-China Alignment Challenges U.S. Hegemony
Sharmini Peries interviews Richard Sakwa, Professor of Russian and European Politics at the University of Kent, and an Associate Fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Program at Chatham House

Alastair Crooke — The Dire, Unintended Consequences of Trump’s MAGA War on China

De-globalization and the collapse of the Post WWII world order. Sailing into uncharted territory.

Strategic Culture Foundation
The Dire, Unintended Consequences of Trump’s MAGA War on China

Alastair Crooke | founder and director of the Conflicts Forum, and former British diplomat and senior figure in British intelligence and in European Union diplomacy

See also

Consortium News
PATRICK LAWRENCE: Pompeo, Pence & the Alienation of Europe

Tom Luongo — Energy Dominance Isn’t Just a Trump Obsession

Trump’s Energy Dominance plan is predicated on keeping control of the flow and pricing of oil around the world. This is why he’s meddling around in Venezuela, a project more than twenty years in the making by the U.S. but which he philosophically agrees with.

He has no ability to stop the drive within our government to keep the Middle East a powder keg because Israel acts as if peace is an existential threat.

But none of that will change the trend that now dominates, which is that the U.S., despite Trump’s spastic flailing about, is losing control of the world’s oil pricing. From the petroyuan contract in Shanghai to the strong relationships Russia is building across Europe and Asia there is little the U.S. can do that it already hasn’t done to alter this trend.…

Dollar hegemony is based on oil being traded in dollars. The US brokered a deal with the Saudis for the Saudis to supply oil in exchange for dollars, which they saved in US Treasuries or spent on military hardware instead of settling international transactions in gold under Bretton Woods. Bretton Woods ended President Nixon closed the gold window for international payments. But the oil for dollars only persisted.

That is now being challenged as the US uses economic warfare to rule the world unilaterally.

An obvious counter would be returning to international settlement in gold. What would happen if the oil producing nations returned to demanding gold for international settlement?

Could this be a factor in Russia and China building their gold reserves, with other central banks following now? Forbes thinks that this is for inflation protection against a falling dollar, but that view is undercut by dollar strength, including the Treasury market. Others believe it is a sign of de-dollarization as countries realize that they, too, are vulnerable to dollar hegemony as a weapon in cementing US global hegemony.

In addition, as climate change bites, countries are going to be forced to move away from the dominance of fossil fuels. They will involve development of sustainable energy sources, storage and distribution. This will also reduce the ability of the US to dominate energy, and it is already happening.

Tom Luongo
Energy Dominance Isn’t Just a Trump Obsession

Harry J. Kazianis — What if Trump’s Trade War With China Goes Too Well?

“America’s strategy when it comes to China is easy to understand: crush them. Drive them into the ground. Make sure that they can’t undo American power and influence not just in Asia but around the world. That’s Trump’s goal, and he is doing one hell of a job. I couldn’t be happier.”

That’s the response I received over drinks when I asked a former senior Trump administration official—speaking on background—what Washington’s strategy was when it comes to the People’s Republic of China.…

The Chinese leadership and PLA are under no illusions about this. The same plan goes for Russia and the Russian leadership and Stavka.

"Crush" ultimately means breaking these large countries into smaller states that can be managed as vassals. What could go wrong? (Lots.)

The American Conservative
What if Trump’s Trade War With China Goes Too Well?

Harry J. Kazianis | executive editor of The National Interest and director of the Center for the National Interest’s new Korea program

Tom Luongo — Trump Betrays MAGA Over Venezuela

As Alistair Crooke succinctly put it last year at Strategic Culture:

The US – were energy dominance to succeed – simply would control the tap to the economic development – or its lack thereof – for rivals China, and Asia. And the US could squeeze Russia’s revenues in this way, too. In short, the US could put a tourniquet on China’s and Russia’s economic development plans. Is this why JCPOA was revoked by President Trump?

Here then, is the squaring of that circle (more US power, yet less empire): Trump’s US aims for ‘domination’, not through the globalists’ permanent infrastructure of the US defence umbrella, but through the smart leveraging of the US dollar and financial clearing monopoly, by ring-fencing, and holding tight, US technology, and by dominating the energy market, which in turn represents the on/off valve to economic growth for US rivals. In this way, Trump can ‘bring the troops home’, and yet America keeps its hegemony. Military conflict becomes a last resort.

Most of Trump’s supporters refuse to admit this is the plan. They still want to believe that National Security Advisor John Bolton and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo were thrust upon him by the nefarious Deep State.

And that Trump is a trapped hero in a cage yearning to breathe free and MAGA, if we just support him a little more. Nonsense.

Trump has been very clear about this policy for years. We take over these places, kill the bad people and pay for it all by stealing their natural resources, in this case oil.

It is Trump’s 17th century view on trade writ large....

Tom Luongo
Trump Betrays MAGA Over Venezuela
See also

The Independent (UK)
The Western world may no longer underestimate Isis, but we've failed to learn the most important lessons from its rise and fall

Patrick Cockburn

Also

GrayZone Project
US Backs Coup in Oil-Rich Venezuela, Right-Wing Opposition Plans Mass Privatization and Hyper-Capitalism

Ben Norton

Tom Luongo 5G, Huawei and Us — The U.S. Hates Competition

Tom Luongo explains the real reasons behind the US attack on Huawei are part of the ongoing US hybrid war against China and Russia as competitors. It's about power and money, as always.

Tom Luongo
5G, Huawei and Us — The U.S. Hates Competition