Branko Milanovic — When autarky becomes the only solution

The latest, and by far the most serious, round of US sanctions against Russia has shown two things very clearly—neither of which has received much publicity in the comments so far. The first is the extraordinary power of the modern state. The second is that when powerful states impose sanctions that limit one’s access to markets, technology and capital, the only remaining option turns out to be autarky....

The goal US policy in advancing global hegemony (American Empire) is to isolate Russia in order to subjugate it as a vassal or colony. It's their choice. 

However, it is not Russia's only choice.

Game on. And it is deadly serious since Russia is a nuclear superpower.

Milanovic makes goods points, but it remains to be seen whether this will be a replication of 1920. Russia is in far different shape now, and global conditions have also changed a great deal since then with respect to level of development. The Global North and West is no longer leading development, as the emerging world — the Global South and East — are where the development is taking place. This is where the growing markets are. 

The game now is who is going to dominate those markets and capture the surplus value created there. The intent of the Global North and West is to dominate them as it did under imperialism and colonialism through neo-imperialism and neocolonialism. That's not going down well in the Global South and East.

The current situation with Russia is an interation in the development of the Global North and Global South rivalry and the East-West rivalry. But at this juncture the Global South and East are not the puny states in comparison with the developed North and West.

The US intends to make an example of Russia, for the benefit of China, India, Brazil, South Africa, and Indonesia, etc.

Expect sparks to fly.

Global Inequality
When autarky becomes the only solution
Branko Milanovic | Visiting Presidential Professor at City University of New York Graduate Center and senior scholar at the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS), and formerly lead economist in the World Bank's research department and senior associate at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Victor Ivanter — It’s Not Oil That’s Russia's Curse, It’s Excessive Imports

A widespread explanation of the economic crisis is that it’s Russia’s resource curse, and we’ve arrived at the day of reckoning. Of course, this a metaphor; everyone knows that to have resources is not a curse, but a gift from God. But resource availability can work against the economy.

Russia needs to rebalance its economy using import substitution (but not aiming for import displacement and autarky) and reindustrialization after the collapse of the USSR and the disastrous liberal period that colonized Russia.

This could take place quickly if Russian policy makers were in paradigm with MTT, since the needed real resources are already available.

Russia Insider
It’s Not Oil That’s Russia's Curse, It’s Excessive Imports
Victor Ivanter, director of the Institute of Economic Forecasting
Originally appeared at IA Devon - Oil news from the Volga and Urals. 

Translated by Svetlana Kyrzhaly and Rhod Mackenzie