The Unz Review
Week One of the Russian Military Intervention in Syria
The Saker
Also a good read:
Furthermore the long interview granted by Assad to Iranian state television brings new elements, to some extent favorable ones for those who say they want to find a political solution to the lengthy Syrian crisis. While appearing very conscious of renewed military strength on the ground, in fact, Assad for the first time talked about his possible departure from the scene: "If it could be of help, I wouldn't hesitate to resign."Fort Russ
Russian intervention -- a brand new ball game
Contropiano.org
Translated by Tom Winter
15 comments:
So much for the peace deal with Iran. Isn't it more likely that Iran will use Hezbollah as a proxy, as well as the Syrian army?
Let your proxies do the fighting and dying- that's what they're for.
Hezbollah do what they want. They're not puppets or proxies of Iran. They ended an illegal occupation, and in the process gave the Israelis a very bloody nose, and are a major and popular political party in Lebanon, something Washington can't forgive. The Syrian military is battling the most psychotic bunch of mass murderers this side of a hospital for the criminally insane. They're not proxies either.
Iran may well be helping Hezbollah and the Syrians. Leaving aside ISIS's penchant for crucifying magicians (sorcerers) and throwing homosexuals off buildings, there's nothing more they like doing than killing Shia, and Iran is full of them.
Personally, I'm not all that fussed who wipes ISIS out. I would like to see ISIS fighters crucified and thrown off buildings. Actually, just the crucifixion will do. And it'll do very nicely, thank you. It should also be reserved for every lying piece of shit politician who talks about the "moderate opposition" to cover up their support for ISIS.
Assad is a dentist who never particularly wanted to be President. But he does not kowtow to the U.S. or Israel, therefore he is the devil.
Assad is an ophthalmologist.
I suspect that the Persians can both read and digest the contents of PNAC. As such, they know full well that should Syria be dismantled, the Daesh will be turned loose on Iran.
Khamenei bans further cooperation, talks with US
Putin's latest speech at the UN likewise demonstrated that Russia clearly understands what the game is. Hezbollah for good or bad, also are well aware of the consequences of allowing Daesh to flourish.
“Today we are facing a kind of danger that is unprecedented in history, which targets humanity itself,” Nasrallah said Sunday during a televised broadcast referring to Islamic State (IS, previously ISIS/ISIL).
“This is not just a threat to the resistance in Lebanon or to the regime in Syria or the government in Iraq or a group in Yemen,” the Shiite movement’s head continued. “This is a danger to everyone. No one should bury their heads in the sand.”
He called on volunteers to stand up against IS extremist fighters: “We invite everyone in Lebanon and the region to take responsibility and confront this danger and end their silence and hesitation and neutrality.”
The US policy is permanent global hegemony in an international order under rules it sets.
The grand strategy is to care up, China, and Iran ASAP, and I would assume on the same principle, eventually India, in order to obviate a large state or coalition of large state from challenging US hegemony. This is what is really going on and all the strategic players know it. This is a deadly serous game for control on the part of the US and for survival on the part of those it has its sights set on. As far as US leaders are concerned this is the "manifest destiny" of the US as "the exceptional country" or "indispensable country."
There's nothing new under the sun, as they say.
Bob,
ISIS have attacked Lebanon, and Hezbollah proceeded to kick their teeth in. Why does that make them proxies? They're a national liberation organisation, albeit of a religiously conservative Shia bent. They've never attacked another country, and keep their politics within Lebanon. And given what we know of ISIS's actions and their declared goal of killing all Shia, I'd say Hezbollah have as strong a case as there is for taking the war to ISIS.
Hezbollah's politics aren't my cup of tea. But that's irrelevant to the fact that they are extremely popular and liberated their country from an illegal occupation, something the Lebanese army were incapable of doing, and became a hugely significant political player in the process, even garnering praise from the hostile Christian community who effectively own the country but are now in a small minority.
You're wrong about the sectarianism. The sectarianism was imported into Syria primarily by the Saudis and the other Gulf Arab states. The Saudis have been doing this deranged religious shit for decades: Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, now Syria.
John,
ISIS have attacked Lebanon, and Hezbollah proceeded to kick their teeth in. Why does that make them proxies?
Because they receive support from Iran. That doesn't necessarily make them puppets, but it calls into question their independence. The risk to Lebanon is another civil war instigated by rivals of Iran. That is the price of aligning oneself militarily and ideologically with outside interests.
Getting involved in Syria may make no difference as it is clear whose side they are on. They should do everything they can to keep Lebanon out of an armed conflict.
You're wrong about the sectarianism. The sectarianism was imported into Syria primarily by the Saudis and the other Gulf Arab states.
It was homegrown due to the brutality of the Baathist regime. As in Iraq, a supposedly secular government was sustained through repression along ethnic and religious lines. Instead of deranged religious shit, they do deranged dictator shit.
I don't see much hope for the peoples of the Middle East. They are ruled by fanatics and plagued by meddling from the outside. The Sunni/Shia divide has the potential to destroy them.
But he does not kowtow to the U.S. or Israel, therefore he is the devil.
Dan, Syria did participate in the US's extraordinary rendition program. According to the New Yorker's John Mayer, it was one of the "most common destinations for rendered suspects."
Assad, for whatever geopolitical reasons, was tossed aside by the US -- just like the former darling of the West, and now dead, Gaddafi was, 'cause when you are no longer of use, you gotta go ;)
Regarding Israel ... even before this bloody Syrian war, Israel basically did as it pleased with Syria -- Israeli jets violating Syrian airspace, firing missiles, army attacking Syrian towns along the border ... and Assad did nothing.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/02/05/a-staggering-map-of-the-54-countries-that-reportedly-participated-in-the-cias-rendition-program/
imo they dont think Assad is qualified to provide security in his own nation so they want him replaced...
Russians going in there changes the whole calculus though now... eg Trump supports Assad/Putin taking care of ISIS.... so if before Assad couldnt provide security maybe now Assad/Putin (Assad never had Putin's direct help before) can and (eventually) this may become acceptable given some success and then some time for the reactionaries/hot-heads to cool off....
I think it is up to Assad/Putin to sell it to the Saudis and Israelis.... imo if Saudi/Israel become comfortable with this new security arrangements then US will be ok with it too.. but that seems like a remote possibility currently... if they (Assad/Putin) swing towards Iran/Hezbollah and rockets coming in from the north are stepped up and they start talking about Israel giving up the Golan back to Syria forget about it there will probably be a new big war, US will want in that one BIG LEAGUE we still need to collect payback for the Beirut Marine barracks bombing back in the early 80s... we still owe somebody a MAJOR ass-kicking over there in the area of Lebanon/Syria....
There are many issues in MENA, not the least of which that tribal societies were joined into artificially created nation states with rather arbitrarily drawn border, chiefly by Britain (and France) after WWI. At the same time, Israel took proto-form through Zionism's rise in the early 20th century culminating the establishment of the State of Israel post WWII, its recognition by the West, its championing by the US, and its prominent figuring in the shaping of US policy down to the present.
Place this over the Sunni-Shia divide in Islam almost from the outset of its founding and rise, as an argument arose over Muhammad's successor after his passing in 632 CE. The disagreement culminated in 680 CE when the grandsons of Muhammad by his daughter Fatima and her husband, Ali, the fourth caliph and Muhammad's cousin, were killed at the battle of Karbala launched an internecine conflict among the Prophet's followers that continues to this day, recalling the Orthodox and Roman Catholic divide in Christianity (11 th c.) and then the Catholic-Protestant divide (16th c.) in Western Christianity. These divides are all still influencers even after many centuries have passed.
Complicating this in Islam are different views — ultra-orthodox, orthodox, liberal and secular. These views have their counterparts in Judaism, and Christianity, as well as Buddhism and Hinduism. It's also the basis for the Hindu-Muslim divide that resulted in the partitioning of India into India and Pakistan, and continues in India in the divided between orthodox Hindus and Muslims.
While these differences appear to be based on religious differences they are actually cultural differences that manifest in ideological terms and different affiliations.
This provides the underlying context and ignoring it obscures what the dynamic has been for centuries. This is coming to the fore globally owing to globalization shrinking the world due to advances in communications and transportation technology and their proliferation.
"Islamism" is based ideologically on an ultra-orthodox Sunni interpretation of the tenets of Islam, but it is only peripherally religious. Rather it is chiefly an ideology that encompasses culture and institutions and as such has a political orientation to preserve and extend its territory of influence.
This has a directly impact on surrounding countries, which include not only Shi'ite Iran but also Russia and China. The US has not directly connection with the area geographically, it does politically through not only support of Israel but also owing to the area being resource-rich.
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The wildcards in the region are the countries supporting ultra-orthodox ideology and its proponents. These are chiefly Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which are US allies owing to long-standing alliance.
With its suppression of Palestinians for decades, Zionist Israel is a ticking time bomb in the region, too. This needed to be addressed long ago but so far hardliners on both sides have prevented it.
So there are age-old animosities, tribalism versus artificial nationalism, and foreign interference based on geopolicy and geostrategy involved. This chessboard is just a subsection of the board on which the Great Game is being played. But it is a key subsection owing to the energy reserves there, as well as being important geopolitically and geostrategically for control of the Eurasian land mass. Some players see the region as existential regarding their national security and Russia one of them. Russia is not there just to probe, or "prop up a dictator." The area is also vital to the US for maintaining global hegemony. So while the US is appearing to blink, it's not pulling out either.
So it is quite plausible that a major conflict could emerge in this region where these influences and interests overlap geographically. It's eerily similar to the run-up to WWI, for example. Perhaps the assassination of Francis Ferdinand is exaggerated as being *the* catalyst, the pins were lined up and the ball was already rolling down the alley.
Correction: I said that Muhammad's grandsons died at Karbala but it was only Hussayn ibn 'Ali. Hasan ibn 'Ali died previously (670 CE), allegedly from having been poisoned.
Good summary, Tom, and thanks for correcting me on the dentist vs. ophthalmologist thing.
If we were sane ..... we'd want to leave the MidEast oil & gas in the ground and just walk away from the MidEast mess. If we took the money we spent on our military and spent it on green energy instead ...... then we wouldn't be dependent on MidEast oil, and everyone would be better off.
The whole situation is crazy. The only good thing I can say about it is that at least a few people are waking up and realizing that the American emperor is not wearing any clothing.
The problem is the prevalence of the geopolitical and geostrategic types in the deep states of all countries, especially major players. This includes the foreign office, the clandestine services, the national security office, and, of course, the military general staff. Now transnational corps and oligarchs are also involved since it affects their future and fortunes.
Since everyone is in the game, no one can just drop out. It will require concerted action and that is not forthcoming yet, although there are some promising signs of strategic cooperation continuing even when there is conflict raging in other areas.
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