Sunday, December 22, 2013

FactSet Insight: Most S&P 500 retail sub-industries are projected to report a decline in earnings in Q4

This is the first report (subscription may be required) I have seen since the October "shutdown" (which we estimate removed approximately $50B out of the normal leading government spending flows that month) of any projected decline in YoY earnings in this quarter.

Interesting that "food" is down the most, better crank up the soup kitchens Christendumb; and increase your donations to the Robin Hood Foundation Wall Street...

Excerpt from the FactSet report:
In terms of year-over-year earnings growth, only five of the thirteen retail sub-industries in the SP 500 are predicted to report growth in earnings for the fourth quarter. Of these five sub-industries, the Internet Retail (66.7%) and Automotive Retail (10.3%) sub-industries are expected to see the highest earnings growth. On the other hand, the Food Retail (-20.2%), General Merchandise Stores (-10.6%), and Apparel Retail (-8.8%) sub-industries are expected to see the lowest earnings growth for the quarter. 
The estimated earnings growth rate for the SP 500 as a whole for Q4 2013 is 6.2% this week, down slightly from last week’s growth rate of 6.4%. Downward revisions to EPS estimates for Ford Motor accounted for much of the drop in the growth rate during the week. 
On September 30, the Q4 earnings growth rate for the index was 9.5%. All ten sectors have witnessed a decline in earnings growth rates since that date, led by the Energy sector.
The report continues:
At the sector level, eight of the ten sectors are projected to report a year-over-year increase in earnings for the quarter, led by the Financials (24.4%), Industrials (14.2%), and Telecom Services (14.0%) sectors. The Energy sector is expected to see the lowest earnings growth rate (-7.9%). The estimated revenue growth rate for the index for Q3 is 0.3%, down from an estimate of 0.9% at the start of the quarter. While the Financials sector is projected to report the highest earnings growth, it is also projected to report the lowest revenue growth (-10.1%).
I'd have to think this revenue projection they have here in my highlighted sentence is a typo and they really mean Q4.  If this is really the Q4 projection for this reduced and now razor thin 0.3% revenue growth rate projection I would think this number will not hold and we probably will see this number print negative when all is said and done.

FYoY as of December 19, $NFA injection stood DOWN by $45B at $878B from $923B, due mostly to the effects of the "shutdown" in October.

'Happy Holidays!' America from your government morons and policy morons who think they are "out of money" and "borrowing from the Chinese".

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