Saturday, February 21, 2015

Der Spiegel — The Grexit Dilemma: What Would Happen if Greece Leaves the Euro Zone?

On Wednesday of this week, 30 top managers at a large German bank all received a text message and an email at the exact same time. A short time later, their mobile phones rang with an automated voice giving them all passwords and a number to call at exactly 8:30 a.m. to join a teleconference with the board of directors.

The communication blast was the initial step of the bank's emergency "Grexit" plan, a strategy laid out in a document dozens of pages long detailing exactly how managers should react in the event that Greece leaves the euro zone.
Each of the 30 bank managers were required to work through the emergency measures pertaining to his or her division. Information was to be transferred to the supervisory board and public officials were likewise to be kept informed as was the German Finance Ministry. The plan also called for large investors to be put at ease. Questions pertaining to potential bank losses from Greek bond holdings were to be addressed as were changes in monetary transactions with Greece once it was no longer part of the common currency zone.
 
The response also extended to internal bank communication, with instructions to employees for dealing with the new situation posted in the financial institution's intranet. Customers and stake holders were also to be kept informed.
At exactly 6 p.m., the crisis came to an end, as did the work day. Plan "Grexit" was just a dry run, nothing more. At least not yet.
 
Such scenarios are being acted out across Europe these days as companies, banks and governments all prepare for the kind of worst case scenario that isn't even addressed in euro-zone statutes: the exit of one of the common currency area's member states.…
Greece's creditors, now known as "institutions" rather than the "troika," will not just have to reach agreement with Athens on interest rates and payback periods, but also on issues such as the minimum wage and increases to retirement benefits. A possible "Grexit," as Greece's potential euro-zone exit has come to be known, would loom over the talks the entire time. 
Such negotiations would be far from simple. On the one side are supporters of Tsipras' left-wing populist Syriza party, many of whom still live in the 1970s-era world of communist splinter parties. On the other side, the 18 euro-zone finance ministers have joined together to torpedo Tsipras' campaign promises. Syriza wants to increase public spending while the Euro Group wants to reduce it. Athens plans to increase the number of civil servants while the Euro Group believes public spending should be cut further. The Euro Group believes the privatization of publicly held assets should be a priority, but the Tsipras government has put the program on hold for the time being.…
Indeed, Schäuble seems at times to be playing the role of a strict father trying to keep his rebellious teenager in line.…
Success depends largely on Tsipras making concessions. To be sure, he may well be granted interest rate relief or be allowed to improve social conditions in Greece. But he would also have to agree to continued austerity and to implement the reforms demanded by his country's creditors. And that would be the exact opposite of what he promised Greek voters during the campaign.
The only other option would appear to be Greece's departure from the common currency union, the possible effects of which both sides are busily calculating. What would abandoning the euro do to the Greek economy? How high would the costs be for the euro zone? What would be the political consequences were Athens to turn away from Europe?…
Spiegel Online International
The Grexit Dilemma: What Would Happen if Greece Leaves the Euro Zone?
Nikolaus Blome, Martin Hesse, Alexander Neubacher, Christian Reiermann, Michael Sauga, Christoph Schult and Alexander Smoltczyk

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