Friday, March 27, 2020

Fauci: "the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza"


Whaaaaaaaattttttt???????

If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.2


7 comments:

Peter Pan said...

Link to Fauci's statement in full, please.

Matt Franko said...

He's the co-author of the Journal editorial...

Mike Doyle said...

They're comparing death rates: Covid-19 may be closer to 0.1% (flu) than to 10% or 36% (SARS, MERS.

Matt Franko said...

I know...

Matt Franko said...

so somebody might stub their toe if we all go to work everyday so we dont go out?

lastgreek said...

How do they know that the case fatality rate (CFR) for the flu is anywhere near 0.1%? I've never been tested for the flu. What if I had the flu and never knew it (that is, I had very mild or no symptoms at all, but I did have the flu)? I, for example, like many millions for sure, were never tested. So, what I am saying is is that maybe the CFR for the flue is closer to .01% than to .1%. Think about that for a goddamn fuckin' minute.

What we do know, as evidenced by the ongoing medical tragedies in Europe, is that hospitals are being overwhelmed. Fuck, it's clear as my handsome, beautiful, drop-dead Greek god looks that COVID-19 is more serious, by many fuckin' magnitudes, than the flu viruses.

And why, for fuck's fuckin' sake are known flu viruses compared to a new virus that hardly anything yet is known? Hades!, it's even worse than comparing apples to oranges -- more like comparing apples to big, giant, black dildos!

As for Dr. Anthony "Faucet," me thinks it's time for him to call it a career and start packing his bags for a nice retirement home in southern Florida -- you know, the place where people go to be forgotten and die.

As for that woman (what's her name, Brix? Birks?) who is also on the White House pandemic response team... well, let me just say that according to the adult website pornhub.com, "grannies" is one of the top three trending porn videos. She should have no trouble finding a new career :)

Remember and never forget, Americans, that it was just last week that the orangutan with the tiny hands in the White House was praising the benefits of a fish-tank cleaner as a cure for COVID-19.

Important: For anyone here who has a kid just starting to learn probability allow me to highly recommend E.T. Jaynes probability textbook: "Probability Theory: The Logic of Science." It's free on pdf. Toss the other probability books in the trash where they belong. This is the only book they'll ever need. Here it is:

http://www.med.mcgill.ca/epidemiology/hanley/bios601/GaussianModel/JaynesProbabilityTheory.pdf

Peter Pan said...

It may well be the case that most of the population is infected, and mass testing is required to confirm this. An antibody detector is supposedly on its way...