Monday, June 21, 2021

What Happened to the U.S. Deficit with China during the U.S.-China Trade Conflict? — Hunter L. Clark and Anna Wong

The United States’ trade deficit with China narrowed significantly following the imposition of additional tariffs on imports from China in multiple waves beginning in 2018—or at least it did based on U.S. trade data. Chinese data tell a much different story, with the bilateral deficit rising nearly to historical highs at the end of 2020. What’s going on here? We find that (as also discussed in a related note) much of the decline in the deficit recorded in U.S. data was driven by successful efforts to evade U.S. tariffs, with an estimated $10 billion loss in tariff revenues in 2020.
Interesting numbers.

FRBNY — Liberty Street Economics
What Happened to the U.S. Deficit with China during the U.S.-China Trade Conflict?
Hunter L. Clark, assistant vice president in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Research and Statistics Group and Anna Wong, a principal economist at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System


Footsoldier said...

Fed Scored An 'Own Goal' Which Will Push Stealth Quantitative Tightening On A Really Massive Scale

The White House, Fed, Inflation And Flow Of Funds For June 2021

How The Federal Reserve Is Sucking And Blowing At The Same Time

MMT analysis using the 6 seasonal inflection points.

All of these guys believe SOMA adds liquidity to the MMT bet markets and helps stocks.

That overnight reverse repurchase facility (ON RRP)

Withdraws liquidity from the money markets and thus hurts stocks.

They say tsunami of cash that was headed, and is still heading, for the Fed's O/N RRP facility.

Because the FED decided to increase the O/N RRP rate from zero rate to 5 basis points during the June 15-16 FOMC meeting.

That 5 basis point is too big.

the saga of the tsunami besieging the O/N RPP facility was triggered by the termination of the SLR exemptions on March 31. As consequence, big US banks, the Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs), turned away money market and cash funds so as not to allocate additional capital to meet SLR requirements to keep this business. Those funds had nowhere else to turn to, but the Fed's O/N RRP facility. The O/N RRP paid out zero percent (0%) interest (pre June 15-16 FOMC), but that was a lot better than funds paying negative rates in the money markets (investors pay interest on funds placed).

There will be a lag If they are right and the FED are doing quantative tightening by stealth.

Gotta be careful ??

Footsoldier said...

Australian MMT'r Alan Longborn is getting more astute. His seeking alpha posts are get by more fine tuned over the years.

Using the 6 seasonal inflection points on top of his MMT analysis.

ANG traders and Salmon Trutto and Robert Balan are all sharing their ideas and tweeking what they do.

Mike and Matt are right about the leverage ratio. Have been right all along as far as I can see and the impact it has on things.

These guys think they know how the big players manoeuvre to avoid the impacts of the leverage ratio and by doing what they are doing to avoid the impact how it affects everything else.




You'll notice in the comments section they all slap each other's backs.

Apart from Salmo Trutto. He thinks he has the silver bullet and did predict the recent fall of the markets by a day or two weeks ago. Using the 6 seasonal inflection points on his own terms.

That MMT confuses the supply of money with the supply of liquid assets.MMT It is the direct cause of negative real rates of interest. But seems trapped by loanable funds Doctrine.

Anyhoo that's the latest update from seeking alpha.