Monday, June 13, 2022

Bill Mitchell — My blog is on holiday today … [with link to Bill presentations at Levy]

Levy Summer School -Update

As I mentioned last week, I cancelled my travel plans to personally attend this educational event due to rising Covid numbers in the US and the travel advisories issued by the Australian government.

That meant that two of the planned sessions would have been difficult – discussion panels and so my sessions now, which I will deliver remotely are (the times are New York State times):

Thursday, June 16 10:30-12:00 – The Buffer Stock Approach

Friday, June 17 15:15-16:15 – Thirlwall’s Law (this is about the balance-of-payments-constrained growth theory).

You will be able to access those sessions via Zoom using the following link….
Bill Mitchell – billy blog
My blog is on holiday today …
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia


Footsoldier said...

US stock markets following this?

They need to remove tariffs from China which will help with the oil price and help the US economy in other ways also.

Anymore lockdowns in China won't help matters.

Footsoldier said...

If China's manufacturing data and exports continue to improve.

That's the time to start buying the dips in US stocks imo.

Footsoldier said...

Getting rid of all the tariffs is the smart move but once again geopolitics ruins everything.

Won't help with China lockdowns but neither will playing about with interest rates.


Peter Pan said...

That would be the Trump tariffs.

If China wants to lockdown their people in a futile attempt to defeat the flu, they are welcome to do so. Maybe they should exterminate sparrows, in case sparrows are spreading COVID.

Footsoldier said...

What's happened since early 2000's never looked genuine anyway.

It looked like Japan in the 80's

Which more or less gave up the gains Over the next 20 years.

Over hyped tech stocks much ?

Bitcoin, meme stocks, and mega cap tech, needed a right good flush to show up the fraud and the dead wood anyway.

Footsoldier said...

It should drop by another 1700pts to make the stock market look believable again. More genuine in my opinion.

It won't though. It's riddled with fraud and deception.

But dropping to around the 2500 mark would make it "look" trustworthy again. More believable and genuine. For people like me that simply fail to understand it.

Going from to 800 to nearly 5000 in what 12 years was like " the plane boss, the plane" an episode of fantasy island. As if America had turned Japanese.

People backing Trump and believing he would save them caused most of the rally. It was pure fiction. Ignored the long term effects of the pandemic.Ignored the effects the of the war. Ignored the effects of the tarrifs.

The large budget deficits barely replaced the private sector activity that was lost. Way too much importance was being placed on deficits. Way more than normal anyway. Inflation increased them automatically. With the profits going into fewer and fewer hands.

Looking at it over a 50 year period, it didn't look right, feel right, smell right. It looked like Mount Everest to me. Looked like Japan and I stupidly thought mount Everest was going to give back a large part of its gains gradually over time as they moved swiftly back to neoliberalism and globalism of over 30 years of low growth.

How wrong was I and why I don't trade the Damn thing. Why I don't understand it.

A move from 800 in 2008 to around 2500 in 2022 just looks, feels and smells more honest, more genuine than Mount Everest. A 1700 point gain just sounds more realistic over a 12 year period than nearly 4000.

If Trump never became president that's probably where it would be around the 2000- 2500 mark if the 30 years running up to mount Everest was anything To go by.

To rally for several years just because of the name of a president is bonkers never mind the market ignoring his damaging policies at the same time. They created the Mount Everest.

Same will happen if Trump wins again a several year rally without substance. All it took to prick the bubble was a couple of FED announcements.

Crazy !

It needed a good wash and clean to get the badness out of it anyway. So the fraud can start all over again. So the next bubble can be pricked. It was going to happen at some point. It always does. Might as well get the washing and cleaning over and done with.

China will have to do the heavy lifting role again as they are terrified to either cut taxes or increase spending because of the inflation. Frightened to even fart and scared of their own shadows.

Footsoldier said...

Still waiting on the 10 year to roll over and all the fun and games starts all over again.

Balan has been very quiet.

Nothing since Thursday and normally writes 3 posts a day.

Footsoldier said...

A classic case and exactly like the Clinton era.

Just by concentrating on on budget deficits/ surpluses and nothing else.

Can very quickly put traders in a cardboard box under a freeway for a few months.