Tuesday, June 14, 2022

Gonzalo Lira Update: I No Longer Trust Scott Ritter!! Did this surprise you? (video 14.40)


Gonzalo Lira Update: I No Longer Trust Scott Ritter!! Did this surprise you?


Peter Pan said...

Any suggestion that the Russian military is less than invincible... or that Moscow's strategy is not entirely going to plan... and this is the reaction you get from pro-Russian fanboys.

Footsoldier said...

I was reading the Grayzone story on Paul Mason and noticed that the target in Scotland from his diagram was Conter.


Just so happens I know one of the guys that runs Conter David Jamieson be is their editor. Had a few run ins with him over MMT.

So I emailed David and asked if he had seen the Grayzone article. He sent me this.

That's David speaking with Aaron Bastani of Novara Media, about accusations of treason and working for foreign powers at a time of war, censorship and surveillance.


An excellent very professional chat about the whole affair what is now called Masongate. Expand on other things they have already experienced. Why they think it was true.

Well worth a listen that captures the big picture.

Matt Franko said...

Cat fight!

Footsoldier said...

Debating with an intellectual Marxist over MMT.


It is like going for a prostate examination. They are 10x worse than the far right. Why the left will never be organised again in my lifetime.

Tom Hickey said...

I came to a similar conclusion when SR shifted his position. Changing one's mind or updating one's views based on shifting conditions or new knowledge is fine, but I didn't see that. Moreover, his demeanor changed, too. And his position began to conform to the narrative. Seems that something is up. GL presents two possibilities and thinks one is more likely. But there are more. So I am not ready to go out on a limb and speculate on his motivation.

Footsoldier said...

GL lost the plot Ritter wasn't even being offensive.

He loved Ritter as long as Ritter was On point with the Saker site reps.As soon as he stepped away from the saker site reps it all changed.

Cooked up in the same apartment months at a time, frightened to leave and drinking that much coffee would make anyone on edge. Merely a different point of view was enough.

Nobody knows what is going to happen next from a 1000 different scenarios. Falling out over the "what ifs" is crazy town.

I'd rather listen to Ritter than GL. Ritter will admit if he is wrong. GL not so much. GL is like the financial experts and back fits the data for a certain narrative. Is the way I see it.

Peter Pan said...

Ritter calls it as he sees it.

No one outside of the 'alt' echo chamber cares about Gonzalo's purity tests.

Anyone who is familiar with his Coach Red Pill work would view this guy with skepticism.

Footsoldier said...

China's industrial production unexpectedly grew by 0.7% yoy in May 2022, easily beating market consensus of a 0.7% drop and reversing from a 2.9% fall in April. The upturn was mainly supported by a rebound in manufacturing output following a relaxation in COVID-19 curbs in some major cities (0.1% vs -4.6% in April) and a further rise in mining production (7.0% vs 9.5%). Meantime, utility output was sluggish (0.2% vs 1.5%).

Among manufacturing, production recovered for both chemical raw material and chemical products (5.0% vs -0.6% in April)

Let's see what that does to the oil price ?

The manufacturing figure when it comes out could be a nice one and we could see the oil price on a decent down move ?

mike norman said...

"When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" -JM Keynes

Ritter was not wrong in reassessing his view, given the ongoing weapons supply to Ukraine. Pentagon said this will go on for a "long time."

Footsoldier said...

Russian Oil Selling at 30% Discount to Global Benchmark, Data Show


Footsoldier said...

China is going to take as much of that discounted oil from Russia as they can and then get the rest from elsewhere.

India should have done the same but they've been buying cheap then sending it to Europe at higher prices. As a way round the sanctions for Europe.

The games they all play.

Matt Franko said...

“Changing one's mind or updating one's views based on shifting conditions or new knowledge is fine”

Where does it say to do that in the Socrates playbook?

Footsoldier said...

Now it is official: President Biden to visit SaudiArabia on July 15 and 16, during his Middle East tour.

After meeting with the Saudi leadership, he will meet with the leaders of what some experts call “the Arab NATO”: GCC leaders, Egypt, Jordan, (& Iraq).

He needs to go to Beijing and lift the sanctions. Catching the wrong fljght.

Anas Alhanji,

"Hot summer and active hurricane season will cause gas shortages and even higher oil prices in Europe. High enough to split the EU in its stand toward Russia"


Footsoldier said...

"Changing one's mind or updating one's views based on shifting conditions or new knowledge is fine”

Where does it say that in the FED playbook ?


mike norman said...

Lira comes off looking jealous of Ritter. Bitter rant.

Matt Franko said...


“ Hegel notoriously maintained that if facts contradict theory, then “um so schlimmer für die Fakten”—so much the worse for the facts”

It’s NOT fine.., you STICK with the theory…

Matt Franko said...

And Keynes is a moron for asking that question if it wasn’t rhetorical… if he asks a question like that then that means he is completely ignorant of the methodology under which he and his interlocutors were educated.., when the methodology is foundational …

Footsoldier said...

A different take on Biden's visit.

(The election cycle)


I'm convinced more than ever China will have to do all of the heavy lifting.

Matt Franko said...


“ Upon graduation, all cadets receive a Bachelor of Science degree”

Military is very Science oriented..,,maybe some rubbed off on Ritter

Matt Franko said...

Derek don’t worry the Biden people are going to get the Fed and ECB to lower the prices via monetarism….

Matt Franko said...

So Keynes asks: “ "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"

Then Hegel says “ if facts contradict theory, then “um so schlimmer für die Fakten”

What the hell do you think they do? Hegel just TOLD YOU what they do…

mike norman said...

White House to announce $1 bln of artillery, anti-ship missiles and other weaponry to Ukraine.

mike norman said...

Biden doubling, tripling down on Ukraine military aid.

Joe said...

Lira seems like a bit of a creep, any of these "red pill"-type people you have to be very skeptical of, they're often very unsavory people. He is actually in Ukraine so he occasionally has something interesting to say, and he is a bit of a colorful character, he seems to have lead an interesting life.

Ritter is a character as well. Spews as much hot air as substance, but he does have interesting points at times. I don't know where he got the Lira supposed info from, and on day one of the war Ritter was saying on twitter that the Russians were schooling the Ukrainians in urban combat. Which wasn't the case. So he does seem to need to make some adjustments in the credibility he gives to various sources. But he has made interesting legal arguments recently, and he's probably right that sticking the landing from a political pov will be quite tricky for the Russians. The US doesn't lose battles, we lose wars. Russia could fall into that trap too.

My sense is it will be difficult for Ukraine to build a large effective army in the west of Ukraine while 100-200 Ukrainians are devoured in the meat grinder in the east every day, as Ritter thinks they will be able to do. Russia launches somewhere around 10x of the artillery shells that Ukraine can each day (as best we can tell, maybe not 10x, but it's clearly many many multiples more), has large industrial production of weapons and ammo along with the heavy infrastructure to bring it to the front, while the Ukie's are begging the west for supplies. And where will the supply of men come from? Are there enough neo-nazis around the globe that want to face the Russian meat grinder? The gung-ho larpers I doubt are still showing up. The US was unsuccessful at training up and arming jihadis in Syria, and a far greater effort would be needed in Ukraine. Brian Berletic (the new atlas) makes these points, it's mainly a training, manpower, lack of time, and logistics argument. Granted Ukraine ain't Syria, professionally trained western soldiers aren't the same as jihadis that trained on a jungle gym in the desert, but Brian seems more persuasive.

I'm no military person, so my opinion is utterly worthless, but that's what we're all trying to do, make the best judgement we can with the info we have, and be constantly integrating new info into our mental models of the state of the world.

The Saker and Moon of Alabama has been quite a bit too optimistic (from the Russian POV), but they have been far closer to the truth than anything the West has said. They were telling us about cauldrons the Russians had set up for a few months now and they only started to materialize relatively recently, especially after the Russians broke through the lines at Popasna. But there has not been a giant cauldron with 50k Ukrainians troops cut off like we were told.

It seems the west is about 10x too optimistic (from the Ukraine pov.. it's pretty comical the nonsense they peddle) and the Russian sides is about 2x too optimistic from their pov.. Berletic has been pretty much on the mark so far as best I can tell. The Military Summary channel is simply excellent, well aware that both sides exaggerate.