Saudi Arabia’s ‘Strategic Plan’ to Take Turkey Down — David Hearst and Ragip Soylu

Saudi Arabia has begun implementing a “strategic plan” to confront the Turkish government, after Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman decided he was being “too patient” with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the wake of journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s murder.

The plan is detailed in a confidential report based on open- and closed-source intelligence prepared by the kingdom’s ally, the United Arab Emirates.

The intelligence report is one of a monthly series written by the Emirates Policy Centre, a think tank with close links to the Emirati government and security services.

Entitled “Monthly Report on Saudi Arabia, Issue 24, May 2019”, the report is of limited circulation and intended for the top Emirati leadership. It does not appear on the think tank’s website. A copy has been obtained by Middle East Eye....

Middle East Eye

Saudi Arabia’s ‘Strategic Plan’ to Take Turkey Down

David Hearst and Ragip Soylu

Turkey’s War In The West — Cyprus Is Now Surrounded By Drill-Ships And Warships; Cannon Ready To Fire At Europe – 150,000 People Per Month — John Helmer

Under cover of its Russian S-400 air defence batteries, and ignoring US and European sanctions, Turkey is going on the offensive at sea, surrounding Cyprus, and by land, launching a weapon against the European Union against which there is no defence: a Turkish cannon firing 150,000 people at Europe’s borders each month. They are the refugees from the wars the US and NATO launched in Iraq, Syria and Libya.

A Russian analysis entitled “Turkey will open the door to Europe for millions of refugees”, written by Vladimir Dobrinin, was published in Vzglyad (“View”) on July 24. An English translation follows below....

Dances with Bears
TURKEY’S WAR IN THE WEST — CYPRUS IS NOW SURROUNDED BY DRILL-SHIPS AND WARSHIPS; CANNON READY TO FIRE AT EUROPE – 150,000 PEOPLE PER MONTH
John Helmer

S-400 Is In Turkey — Andrei Martyanov

How the great game has changed. Turkey is pivotal, and the US, NATO and the EU overplayed its hand. Geopolitically and geostrategic pivot point Turkey is now turning to face East rather than West. Of course, this paints a target on Erdogan's back. The recent coup attempt against him, which he attributes to the CIA, may have failed, but that is the end of the game.

The post is mostly of interest, however, since Andrei Martanov is well-versed in military science and military technology, unlike most commentators writing in English.

Reminiscence of the Future
S-400 Is In Turkey
Andrei Martyanov

See also

Russia has stopped using SWIFT and US dollars in weapon export contracts, Head of Russian Defence Export firm (Rosoboronexport) Aleksandr Mikheev told journalists during Army-2019 forum.

He said that Rosoboronexport is now using national currencies instead of US dollars and emplyos a “closed system” of payments....

SouthFront
Russia Is Not Using Swift And Us Dollars To Implement Weapon Contracts

Sputnik — Turkey Unveils New Fifth-Generation Jet TF-X, Indigenous Alternative to F-35 (VIDEO)

Just as Turkey lost access to Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, Turkish Aerospace Industries unveiled a model of its indigenously designed fifth-generation fighter jet, dubbed the TF-X, at the Paris Air Show on Monday.

Turkey’s primary aircraft design bureau put forward at the air show Ankara’s answer to the loss of the F-35, a plane Turkey had once hoped to buy 100 of from the US. Washington recently put that deal on hold over its continued objection to Ankara’s purchasing of S-400 air defense systems from Russia....

“So this means, in terms of manufacturing, Turkish Aerospace has enough strength to build this fighter,” Kotil said. “Our machine is a mock-up, but in 2023 there will be a real machine, and first flight is in 2025, and [it will be in] service in 2028.” 

Sputnik International
Turkey Unveils New Fifth-Generation Jet TF-X, Indigenous Alternative to F-35 (VIDEO)

Turkish Minute — Survey Shows 80% of Turks Perceive US as the ‘Most Dangerous’ Country

According to a recent survey conducted by Kadir Has University a whopping 81.9 percent of Turks consider the United States the most dangerous country for Turkey.

Israel follows the US with 63.3 percent, according to the survey, titled “Turkey Social and Political Trends Research,” published by Turkish media outlets on Wednesday.
The opinion poll was conducted on 1,000 people over the age of 18 in face-to-face interviews between Dec. 12 and Jan. 4 in 26 provinces. The results of the survey, which has been carried out annually since 2010, were announced at a press conference by the university on Wednesday.

The same research found that 41.9 percent of respondents want Turkey to leave NATO, while 58.7 percent are in favor of continuing the country’s membership, in effect since 1952.

Amid strained relations with the European Union, still almost half of the nation is in favor of continuing membership negotiations with the bloc (48.9 percent)....

AntiMedia
Survey Shows 80% of Turks Perceive US as the ‘Most Dangerous’ Country

Turkish Minute

Zero Hedge — Turkey's Erdogan Vows "All Measures" To Circumvent Sanctions On Iran

Following Wednesday's unexpected and dramatic full and "immediate" withdrawal of all US forces from Syria, Turkey has announced it will not play ball on Iran sanctions. According to a translation of the Turkish president's words on Thursday during a previously planned summit with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in Ankara, journalist Abdullah Bozkurt reports, "Turkish president Erdogan says Turkey won't support US sanctions on Iran which he claims puts regional security and stability at risk, vows to take all measures to minimize impact of sanctions on trade between the two countries, pledges support to Iran in difficult times."

Zero Hedge

Turkey's Erdogan Vows "All Measures" To Circumvent Sanctions On Iran
Tyler Durden

Sputnik — Turkey 'Closed Chapter of IMF Credits', Never to Borrow Again - Erdogan

"We have closed the chapter of the IMF credits in order not to open it anymore," Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Sunday addressing the activists of Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party in the town of Kizilcahamam.

Turning East.

Sputnik International
Turkey 'Closed Chapter of IMF Credits', Never to Borrow Again - Erdogan

Alan Longbon — Could Turkey Default? The Maths Say No

Most of the "analysis" of Turkey being offered is nonsense. Speculators following it will be taking the losing side of the trade.

Alan Longbon nails it. This post is the best available that I am aware of.  

The title is too limited. The article comprehensive. 

Does President Erdogan understand MMT? And maybe President Putin, too? Is the world waking up?

To early to tell but the signs are encouraging.

President Erdogan realizes that that the international institutions like the IMF and the global capitalist elite they are represent are on the same neoliberal page. 

Erdogan is also aware that like other central bank the Turkish central bank is on this same page. Can he crack central bank independent. The "international community" is warning him not to try. 

That would be "dictatorial," you see, and undercut the currency even more — as "they" do their best to create a financial crisis to effect regime change.

BTW, this article is an excellent example of MMT analysis in action. Alan Longbon is worth following if you are not already.

Seeking Alpha
Could Turkey Default? The Maths Say No

Alan Longbon

Paul Antonopoulos — Turkey to Ditch U.S Dollar in Trade, Urges Europe to Follow Suit

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday that his country is ready to trade with partner nations using national currencies.

“We are preparing to carry out trade in national currencies with China, Russia, Iran, and Ukraine, which account for the bulk of bilateral trade. If European countries want to get rid of the pressure of the dollar, we are ready to create a similar system with them,” said the Turkish leader during a meeting in the Turkish city of Rize.

Fort Russ
Turkey to Ditch U.S Dollar in Trade, Urges Europe to Follow Suit

Paul Antonopoulos

See also

Geopolitics Alert
The Real Reasons why US-Turkey Relations Have Hit an All-Time Low

Jim Carey

Also

Russia will also have more settlement in roubles and other currencies, such as the euro, than in dollars, Siluanov said.

Reuters
Russia says will ditch U.S. securities amid sanctions: RIA

See also

Sputnik International
US Dollar Becoming Risky Instrument For Int'l Payments – Russian Minister

Also

Zero Hedge
Russia Finance Minister: We May Abandon Dollar In Oil Trade As It Is Becoming "Too Risky"

Tyler Durden

Just in

South African Rand Flash-Crashes 10% As Turkey Contagion Spreads

Humeyra Pamuk — Turkey is a 'target of economic war', Erdogan says

Turkey joins Russia in declaring it is under US attack.

Erdogan said those who plotted against Turkey in a failed coup attempt in July 2016 were now trying to target the country through its economy, and pledged to fight back. He did not name any countries.

This is how WWIII starts. Leaders don't choose such words lightly.

The US now engaged in hybrid war with China, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Russia, Turkey, and Venezuela. Did I forget anyone?

Reuters
Turkey is a 'target of economic war', Erdogan says

Humeyra Pamuk

See also at Reuters

The Turkish economy is not in a crisis or going bankrupt and the fluctuations in the foreign exchange rate are the ‘missiles’ of an economic war waged against Turkey, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday.

Turkey is not in a crisis, will fight 'economic war', Erdogan says

See also

RT
Turkish lawyers want US soldiers arrested for 'ties to coup movement'

Also at RT

The US loses an ally.

'We'll get new friends': Upset Erdogan lashes out at US in speech and article in US paper

Michael Roberts — Turkey: total meltdown

How can Erdogan get out of this currency crash? The capitalist solution is to hike interest rates to an astronomical height so that further borrowing is stopped. Then the government should dramatically cut government spending and raise taxes (ie fiscal austerity) and use the ‘savings’ to bolster the banks and meet foreign debt repayments. Turkey should also turn to the IMF for a loan – Greek style. Under IMF rules, it could borrow up to $28bn to fund future debt repayments but then be subject to the dictats of IMF austerity measures. This capitalist solution means an outright slump in the Turkish economy, hitting its citizens hard and seriously damaging Erdogan’s support in the country.

The government could introduce capital controls and block any money leaving the country. But this would mean that foreign lenders would just stop lending, driving the economy into a slump anyway. Or Erdogan could try to get funding from Russia, China or Saudi Arabia (as Pakistan has just done). Unfortunately, he is on bad terms with all these countries. Erdogan is resisting all these options so far, telling his supporters to ‘trust in God’ and him.

The bigger issue is the growing emerging market debt crisis. This is what I said in May after Turkey’s general election. “Rising global interest rates and the growing trade war initiated by US President Trump are going to hit the so-called emerging capitalist economies like Turkey. The cost of borrowing in foreign currency will rise sharply and foreign investment is likely to reverse…..Turkey is now near the top of the pile for a debt crisis, along with Argentina (already there), Ukraine and South Africa.”
So there’s more to come.

What's the lesson likely to be drawn in the emerging world? Capitalism doesn't work and comes with the price of Western control of the emerging country and exacting of tribute.

The bottom line is that the price of entry into the US market is US control of your country's entire policy.

The alternative its that countries can ally with Russia and China and face off with the US military.

That's empire and the extracting tribute in contemporary form.

Who is this an opportunity for?

Maybe China, which is proposing a different world order?

Does the US really think that the emerging world is going to roll over and acquiesce in re-colonization?

This is what the US is aiming for with Russia, too, in order to encircle China using economic warfare while also ramping up US military dominance, now also in space.

Donald Trump aiming to become the new Caesar Augustus?

WWIII anyone?

Michael Roberts Blog
Turkey: total meltdown
Michael Roberts

See also

Although the US was essentially defeated in its attempt to remove Assad, the US leadership has not given up on the plan to extend US hegemony to the entire Middle East (MENA).

The attempted coup against the democratically elected government in Turkey failed. This is the next iteration on "humanitarian" pretexts.

Defend Democracy Press
The Empire Hits Turkey. Opening the way to Teheran, Cutting Russia from Syria

Adam Garrie — Turkey Officially Turns to China For a Long Term Economic Partnership

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has spoken about the primary objectives during the first 100 days of his new administration. Speaking of western financial speculation against the Turkish Lira, Erdogan reiterated that the country is “facing an economic war, but we will win it”. As part of his strategy to win the western war against Turkey’s monetary policies and existing economic growth model, Erdogan announced that for the first time in history Ankara will issue state bonds in Chinese Yuan Renminbi and that the country looks forward to opening up new credit lines with China as a viable and sustainable alternative to borrowing from European or American financial institutions. In hailing the beginning of a “new era” for Turkey, Erdogan further stated that in the future, Turkey’s most important export partnerships with be with China, Russia, Mexico and India. The Turkish President also stated that the country plans to built special trade centres in 35 major cities across the globe....

How long will Turkey remain in NATO?

Eurasia Future
Turkey Officially Turns to China For a Long Term Economic Partnership

Adam Garrie

Sputnik — US NATO Envoy Claims Russia is Trying to 'Flip' Turkey, Other Allies to Its Side

Ha ha. After the US flipped Ukraine toward NATO? More projection.

Sputnik International
US NATO Envoy Claims Russia is Trying to 'Flip' Turkey, Other Allies to Its Side

See also At Sputnik

French Minister Accuses US of Trying to Divide France, Germany Amid Tariffs Row

Middle East Eye — Turkish Banker Sentenced to 32 months in US Prison for Evading Sanctions

The prosecution of Mehmet Hakan Atilla has further strained relations between US and Turkey.…

A US judge sentenced Mehmet Hakan Atilla, a banker at Turkey's state-controlled Halkbank, to 32 months in prison on Wednesday after he was convicted earlier this year of taking part in a scheme to help Iran evade US sanctions....

The case has further strained diplomatic relations between the United States and Turkey, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has condemned it as a political attack on his government.…

Prosecutors had sought a sentence of about 20 years for Atilla.

However, Judge Berman said before imposing his sentence that the evidence presented at trial showed Atilla was a minor player in the sanctions-dodging scheme, and "at times a reluctant one at that," largely following orders from his supervisor....

The Turkish president has repeatedly condemned Atilla's conviction, most recently on Tuesday in an interview with Bloomberg Television...

"If Hakan Atilla is going to be declared a criminal, that would be almost equivalent to declaring the Turkish Republic a criminal," Erdogan said.

Anyone taking bets on how long Turkey lasts in NATO?

Middle East Eye
Turkish Banker Sentenced to 32 months in US Prison for Evading Sanctions

See also

The major debate taking place is over where one goes from here. There are two distinct schools of thought, one of which basically asks whether continuation of what is essentially a unipolar world, supported by US power, in which the United States continues to be able to assert its vision of world global good order. This has been defined by Washington as a mixture of expansion of liberal democracy plus more-or-less free trade.…

The alternative view is quite different, asserting that Washington’s blow against Iran will ultimately be a Pyrrhic victory for Donald Trump as the blatant interference in what was a universally accepted largely successful treaty in which Iran was fully compliant will produce a global backlash against American interests.

I would say that they are both correct, to a degree. Washington still has enough clout to enforce its will, however, unpopular. But the US leadership is fast burning through its political capital, and American soft power is decreasing quickly, reversing a longstanding rising trend as the US in growingly perceived as the global bully.

Increasingly also, the US is becoming viewed as a rogue state which believes it is so exceptional and powerful that it is above the law and can do as it pleases in the world, recklessly trampling the interests of other states and peoples. That is unsustainable without war.

Strategic Culture Foundation
Will Trump"s Pyrrhic Victory End with America"s Role As Global Bully?

Philip Giraldi, former CIA counter-terrorism specialist and military intelligence officer, now Executive Director of the Council for the National Interest and founding member of the Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity

Pepe Escobar — From Ankara to Moscow, Eurasia integration is on the move

Important backgrounder.

Asia Times

From Ankara to Moscow, Eurasia integration is on the move

Pepe Escobar

Reuters — Turkey to U.S.– end support for Syrian Kurdish YPG or risk confrontation

Any push by Turkish forces toward Manbij, part of a Kurdish-held territory some 100 km (60 miles) east of Afrin, could threaten U.S. plans to stabilize northeast Syria and bring them into direct confrontation with U.S. troops deployed there.

“Those who support the terrorist organization will become a target in this battle,” Deputy Prime Minister Bekir Bozdag said.

“The United States needs to review its solders and elements giving support to terrorists on the ground in such a way as to avoid a confrontation with Turkey,” Bozdag, who also acts as the government’s spokesman, told broadcaster A Haber.

Harsh. All is not well with in NATO.

Reuters
Turkey to U.S.: end support for Syrian Kurdish YPG or risk confrontation
Tuvan Gumrukcu, Dahlia Nehme

Moon of Alabama — Sundry - Shutdown, Ukraine, Omidyar And Syria

News synopsis. Short.

Moon of Alabama
Sundry - Shutdown, Ukraine, Omidyar And Syria

b

Zero Hedge In Shocking, Viral Interview, Qatar Confesses Secrets Behind Syrian War

A television interview of a top Qatari official confessing the truth behind the origins of the war in Syria is going viral across Arabic social media during the same week a leaked top secret NSA document was published which confirms that the armed opposition in Syria was under the direct command of foreign governments from the early years of the conflict.

And according to a well-known Syria analyst and economic adviser with close contacts in the Syrian government, the explosive interview constitutes a high level "public admission to collusion and coordination between four countries to destabilize an independent state, [including] possible support for Nusra/al-Qaeda." Importantly, "this admission will help build case for what Damascus sees as an attack on its security & sovereignty. It will form basis for compensation claims."

As the war in Syria continues slowly winding down, it seems new source material comes out on an almost a weekly basis in the form of testimonials of top officials involved in destabilizing Syria, and even occasional leaked emails and documents which further detail covert regime change operations against the Assad government. Though much of this content serves to confirm what has already long been known by those who have never accepted the simplistic propaganda which has dominated mainstream media, details continue to fall in place, providing future historians with a clearer picture of the true nature of the war.

This process of clarity has been aided - as predicted - by the continued infighting among Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) former allies Saudi Arabia and Qatar, with each side accusing the other of funding Islamic State and al-Qaeda terrorists (ironically, both true). Increasingly, the world watches as more dirty laundry is aired and the GCC implodes after years of nearly all the gulf monarchies funding jihadist movements in places like Syria, Iraq, and Libya....

"Shocking" refers to the admission rather than the events, which were widely suspected, with some evidence already available.

Now that the war seems to be winding down, the question of who is going to pay to rebuild Syria arises. Syria will be seeking compensation.

Zero Hedge

In Shocking, Viral Interview, Qatar Confesses Secrets Behind Syrian War
Tyler Durden

Kenny Hodgart — Turkish market crumbles as Erdogan overreaches

This portends to have wide-reaching ramifications. Turkey is already on the outs with Germany, and now the US. 

Is Turkey long for NATO? 

It's fairly certain that Erdogan blames US covert operations for the coup attempted against him.

Asia Times
Turkish market crumbles as Erdogan overreaches
Kenny Hodgart

Sputnik — 'West's Shadow' Behind All Terrorist Groups, Including Daesh - Erdogan

Is NATO losing Turkey?

Sputnik International

'West's Shadow' Behind All Terrorist Groups, Including Daesh - Erdogan

Also

Iran Revolutionary Guards Vow to Designate US Army as Equivalent to Daesh

Russian Senator Believes Saudi King's Visit to Russia Means 'US Dictate Over'

Kim Jong-un Says North Korean Nukes 'Protecting Sovereignty' Amid US 'Threats'

US hegemony is being challenged on several fronts. How will the US respond?