Converting currencies to USD as a measure of actual military expansion may be misleading, owing to differences in relative prices and relative costs. While Chinese tech is not yet up to US standards, China can produce most military equipment at a far lower cost, since even though material cost is about same, the labor cost is far less in China and Chinese military-industrial complex is 100% state owned enterprise. The Chinese strategy is and has been swarming. Throwing so much at an enemy so fast as to overwhelm defenses. The PLA is the world's largest army (~2,285,000), which is still less that 2% of the population.
What is perhaps as significant in the arm industry. The US has been and is in first place, with Russia in second place. China has just acceded to third place. These countries are competing with each other in terms of value. The US produces the most advanced weapons.
While Russia is closing the technology gap with the US after lagging for several decades, China's military equipment offered for sale in the arms market is not a par with the US and Russia, But it is ten times less expensive than comparable US products, making Chinese military goods attractive to many countries who want the most bang for the buck based on quantity rather than quality. Based on competition in the arms market, the US, Russia and China are definitely engaged in an arms race. Again, follow the money.
Russia and China have also set as policy the goal of competing with and surpassing the US technologically as soon as possible, owing to increased US bellicosity directed toward them with NATO expansion in Europe and the Asian pivot in the Pacific. This is not going to dampen down anytime soon and portends to continue for the foreseeable future, or until the situation culminates in war.
The so-called peace dividend after the disintegration of the USSR is over. Ramping up the military generally puts pressure on social spending.
