Perhaps another way of putting this is that SDR inclusion is a commitment device. In addition to the practical concerns raised by Zhou, there would also be reputational costs to reversing exchange-rate and capital-account reforms. Since SDR inclusion is contingent on the IMF’s determination that the renminbi is “freely usable,” it could conceivably be reversed if the currency were to stop being freely usable. What future Chinese central bank governor will want to see headlines screaming “IMF expels renminbi from SDR”?
Of course, China over the past year has in fact been de-facto tightening capital controls by stepping up scrutiny of overseas M&A and slowing down approval of foreign-exchange transactions. But it has done so largely by using its regulatory discretion rather than changing formal rules. So perhaps the commitment device is working some....
Andrew Batson's Blog
SDR inclusion as commitment deviceAndrew Batson
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