Wednesday, October 31, 2018

Frank Li — What is really going on in China?

I was in China October 20-28, throughout which I experienced and carefully observed China first hand. Here is a summary: China is doing very well, as usual, and the trade war between the U.S. and China has zero effect on average Chinese citizens, so far. Specifically, let me highlight four points:
  1. The opening of the HK-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge.
  2. China's Import Expo.
  3. Japanese PM Abe visited China.
  4. China in the large.
What is really going on in China?
Frank Li | Chinese ex-pat, Founder and President of W.E.I. (West-East International), a Chicago-based import & export company, B.E. from Zhejiang University (China) in 1982, M.E. from the University of Tokyo in 1985, and Ph.D. from Vanderbilt University in 1988, all in Electrical Engineering


Kaivey said...

I read an article the other day which said China's economy will collapse soon because of the tariffs and because their Labour costs are increasing so western companies will move. their factories to India. Without the money flowing in to help service China's enormous loans, it's economy will go under, it said.

Hmmm, but the Chinese government wants wages to increase to increase domestic demand. And, most of the money is invented out of nothing by public banks and so if the loans don't get paid back no one has lost any money.

But if the money is not paid back, though, could it create inflation? Maybe not in a growing economy?

Konrad said...

“Without the money flowing in to help service China's enormous loans, China’s economy will go under, the article said.”

What loans are those? Loans in foreign currency? Private loans in China?

If the article was referring to private loans in China, or to financial sector debt bubble, then there could be a problem.

But if the article is referring to loans by the Chinese government-owned banks in Chinese yuan, then there is no problem. In China, local government entities routinely borrow from state-owned banks.

Bill Mitchell says, “My Chinese friends tell me there is no discussion over there about the China drowning in debt and all of that nonsense. They know full well that they are sovereign in their own currency and can deficit spend to further their sense of public purpose.”

Some people say that China has an unregulated $20 trillion “shadow banking” industry that is impossible to figure out, and which has nearly $500 billion in non-performing loans. No one knows who owes what to whom, or how much.

What’s impossible to figure out is all the Western propaganda about China. What is true, and what is false?