Monday, April 20, 2020

Long-Term Consequences of Coronavirus — Peter Turchin

I very much hope that this pessimistic forecast is wrong.
It's bad but not horrible. The effect depends more on the response than to the disease. The effect of the disease will be minimal overall and most of the those that die were on the way out anyway (over 60).

The demographic effect is not dire but the social effect could become dire since many of the issues leading to currency dysfunctionality may be amplified by the response.

Cliodynamica — A Blog about the Evolution of Civilizations
Long-Term Consequences of Coronavirus
Peter Turchin | professor at the University of Connecticut in the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, the Department of Anthropology and the Department of Mathematics, and the vice president of the Evolution Institute.

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