Saturday, April 25, 2020

Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach 'herd immunity' in weeks

This is good news, although some older people have died because it spread through care homes. But shutting down the economy risks lives too in the long run.

The impose a lockdown amid the coronavirus outbreak.

The strategy — aimed at building a broad-base of immunity while protecting at-risk groups like the elderly — has proved controversial.

But Sweden's chief epidemiologist has said "herd immunity" could be reached in Stockholm within weeks.

Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach 'herd immunity' in weeks

19 comments:

Matt Franko said...

NYC reached 21% already...

https://swarajyamag.com/news-headlines/preliminary-findings-of-randomised-covid-19-anti-body-test-13-of-new-york-residents-had-coronavirus-death-rate-5

lastgreek said...

"Herd immunity" -- a euphemism for "let the damn virus run wild. Yahoo!"

Sweden has 10x the coronavirus cases and deaths of Greece, two countries with approx. the same population. Why? Because Sweden took its sweet time acting.

"Herd immunity" was the strategy the UK government was considering adopting. This is why they took a long to act. They nixed that idea once they realized that it would result in the culling of their elderly and those with underlying comorbidities. In other words, selective human slaughter of their population. Think about that for a goddamn civilized minute!

And how the hell could Sweden say with certainty that "herd immunity" will be achieved within weeks? The behaviour/activity of the Swedes going forward will not be anywhere near what it was pre coronavirus. So "herd immunity" will take far longer than their rosy estimates. So if their R0 (R-naught: how many people on average an infected person infects) remains in that period above 1, the fools better have the hospital capacity to take care of the higher number of intensive coronavirus cases.

For a society that does not give two shits about their elderly and weak, I say fuck 'em! Truly, I have no problem that society volunteering itself to be the "canary in the coal mine."

#sweden-gone-MAGA

Unknown said...

Is the home of the Third Reich? Herd Immunity will turn us into the Wonder Race! Sounds like a bunch of conceited intellectuals who didn't have a very balanced upbringing!

Matt Franko said...

Unk, its called Darwin .. all the people here believe in it...

Greg said...

It’s called bastardized Darwin. Leaders making choices to allow certain people to die is not “natural selection”, it’s the exact opposite.

Fitness, in Darwin’s use of the word, is not defined by who is able to acquire social power and build killing machines and use them first.

You “believe in it “ too Matt. The articles you’ve linked to about DNA analysis of viruses prove it. You just don’t properly understand it, just as there are those who don’t properly understand CB and govt accounting. Your not qualified to discuss biology and evolutionary theory.

Matt Franko said...

Greg,

How do you think Zinjanthropus Erectus felt when idk Java Man wiped him out?

Or maybe how did Neanderthals feel about Cro Magnon Man acquiring all the social power and wiping them out?

survival of the fittest is survival of the fittest...

Greg serious... can you link me to some studies showing how gain of function can happen via natural random chance mutations... and not via direct human intervention in a genome...

Matt Franko said...

All the Nazis were into Darwin... "master race!" blah blah blah.... that is straight out of Darwin...

Checkmate...

S400 said...

Sweden has 10x the coronavirus cases and deaths of Greece. Can’t trust and compare numbers as different countries report deaths differently.

Reaching herd immunity in Stocks is not from any official statement in Sweden.

Greg said...

Matt

How does the fact that Nazis believed ina master race and that they were superior have anything to do with any claims Darwin made about how speciation occurs and the mechanism of natural selection?

Also aren’t you the one that likes to call other cultures inferior?

Trumpists think like Nazis..... not so fast on the checkmate.... you made an illegal move

S400 said...

“All the Nazis were into Darwin..“

End of discussion when the art degree wannabe drag nazis comparison into the thread and declare himself a winner of chess.

S400 said...

Stocks should be Stockholm

Peter Pan said...

Memo:

Old people are frail and die at higher rates than younger age groups.

Coronavirus is the opposite of 'survival of the fittest'.

Magpie said...

I know. It feels like we've lived under COVID-19 for ages.

But we haven't.

SARS-CoV-2 was only identified some four months ago. I repeat: 4 months ago.

Compare that to measles and mumps and influenza: all of them have been known for over a century. Let me repeat: over one hundred years.

And the thing is that much is not known about the viruses behind measles, mumps, and influenza. Imagine how much is actually known with certainty about SARS-CoV-2.

I don't know whether that is something experts overseas admit. What I do know is Australian experts never tire to repeat that.

And it's well known, for instance, that mumps usually confers immunity, but not always. If you are a male and, in spite of vaccination, you get measles as an adult, you are in deep shit.

Flu confers immunity, but it's only temporary. That's why flu shots are available every year.

Under those circumstances, can one assert with any certainty that SARS-CoV-2 (1) will confer complete immunity, even if only temporary (2) to all?

It's not known whether SARS-CoV-2 even provides partial and temporary immunity to some sufferers. It may, but it may not.

(Nor is it known whether a successful, safe, effective COVID-19 vaccine will ever appear, let alone in the next few months).

In particular, there are plenty reports of people who got COVID-19 and tested positive; survived and tested negative; after which they were re-tested and found to be infected (tested positive, that is), but asymptomatic.

Maybe that's just a test weakness. Tests fail. Shit happens. But what if that's not the right explanation?

Under those circumstances, a bet on herd immunity is a big leap of faith.

If that's what's behind Sweden's strategy, I wish Swedes the best of lucks. They may need it. Remember: pitchforks and torches.

Peter Pan said...

Herd immunity is a strategy based on our immune systems, which have been around for a lot longer than modern medicine. Let alone the imbeciles in leadership positions.

US, UK are doing 10x worse than Sweden.
Taiwan, on the other hand, has contained the virus.
Which model of preparedness do you prefer?

Enjoy your mandatory flu vaccine, Aussies. You'll find that it doesn't work as well as promoted.

Calgacus said...

cases/ million ; deaths/ million

US 2,903 164

UK 2,186 299

Sweden 1,800 217

Hard to see how that spells US, UK are doing 10x worse than Sweden.

Sweden is giving the world a good experiment, but I wouldn't want to participate in it. Greece is doing a LOT better than these three.

Herd immunity before this crisis referred to vaccine conferred immunity. One might say imbeciles in leadership positions have led to a redefinition. Of course vaccines are based on our immune systems too.

Peter Pan said...

Based on these numbers...

US 54265/328200000*100 = 0.017%
Sweden 2192/10230000*100 = 0.02%
UK 20319/66650000*100 = 0.03%

...UK is doing 1.5x worse than Sweden.
...US is doing 1.2x better than Sweden.

These numbers have to be plotted on a logarithmic scale.
I don't know where I got the 10x figure, other than bad press with regard to the US and the UK. Spain, Italy and France have done worse than UK/US, yet it's the latter who are portrayed as the worst examples.

Trump, Boris, and Sweden are running comparable experiments.
Greece and Taiwan are doing much better, but is that due to lockdown or containment?
The world as a whole is doing much better than the 'developed' countries.

Herd immunity for flu is natural. Only risk groups are encouraged to take the flu shot; and then you end up catching another strain.

Magpie said...

For the record:

(1) In Oz flu shots ain't mandatory. Trust me. I know, I took one a few weeks back. It was entirely volunteer and I actually had to pay for it (I know it won't prevent COVID-19, but if I start coughing, get feverish, or a sore throat, at least I know for sure there's good reason to worry. Better than worrying myself sick - pun intended - when it may just be a garden variety flu).

(2) Australian population: 25,445,629 (from Woldometers), active COVID-19 cases: 1,192, COVID-19 deaths: 82 (from Guardian). Cases per million: 46.7; deaths per million: 3.2

Peter Pan said...

If Aussies want to visit an old folks home, a flu shot is mandatory beginning on May 1st.

https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/start-flu-vaccinations-as-soon-as-they-are-availab

Where I live, no one may visit such facilities. Yet the residents are still getting infected by the staff. It's now a scandal.

Nebris said...

We're not yet sure if recovering from La Rona even makes one immune. There are all these cases of 'recovered' folks showing Positive again. So Herd Immunity is still totally unproven.