Wednesday, December 16, 2020

Everything We’ve Learned About Modern Economic Theory Is Wrong

Numerous economics journals have not published Ole Peters work because they said they didn't think it would be interesting to their readers. 

The proposition is about as outlandish as it sounds: Everything we know about modern economics is wrong.

And the man who says he can prove it doesn’t have a degree in economics.

But Ole Peters is no ordinary crank. A physicist by training, his theory draws on research done in close collaboration with the late Nobel laureate Murray Gell-Mann, father of the quark. He’s also won over two noted thinkers in the world of finance — Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Michael Mauboussin — not to mention a groundswell of enthusiastic supporters in the Twittersphere.

His beef is that all too often, economic models assume something called “ergodicity.” That is, the average of all possible outcomes of a given situation informs how any one person might experience it. But that’s often not the case, which Peters says renders much of the field’s predictions irrelevant in real life. In those instances, his solution is to borrow math commonly used in thermodynamics to model outcomes using the correct average.


Everything We’ve Learned About Modern Economic Theory Is Wrong


Matt Franko said...

“ Starting with $100, your bankroll increases 50% every time you flip heads. But if the coin lands on tails, you lose 40% of your total.”

Not representative of human productive achievement..., human productive achievement is cumulative... not fluctuating +/- around 100...

Human production keeps making successive new highs.,,, there are at times pullbacks due to bad/damaging policy errors by those in authority but even those are eventually adjusted/corrected for and then new highs are made....

These people don’t ever produce anything so they wouldn’t understand this... they are not “producers”....

Remember Taleb was all pissed off back in 2008 when policy makers corrected their reserve asset error and put more capital in the Depositories and corrected their error and things stabilized and started back up... Taleb was indignant and saying he was going to leave the country ....

These people don’t really produce anything yet they think they are qualified to opine on matters related to production... probably none of them could even check the oil in their car...,

AXEC / E.K-H said...

Lethal blunder
Comment on Ole Peters/Kaivey on ‘Everything We’ve Learned About Modern Economic Theory Is Wrong’

Yes, economics is proto-scientific garbage. But this has NOTHING to do with ergodicity yet ALL with the foundational economic concept of profit.

The profit theory is false since Adam Smith

Egmont Kakarot-Handtke