Wednesday, December 2, 2020

How COVID-19 killed Donald Trump’s Hope of Re-election – New Research



We knew this already but here are some numbers.

International Policy Digest
How COVID-19 killed Donald Trump’s Hope of Re-election – New Research
Paul Whiteley, Harold D. Clarke, Karl Ho and Marianne Stewart

14 comments:

Peter Pan said...

Participation rate, and vote totals for each candidate, are the interesting numbers. This article is speculative at best.

Calgacus said...

Words like "speculative" are often how people criticize what absolutely everybody knows to be true. Trump was heading toward re-election in a walk. Along came Covid. He handled it like an idiot. So he lost. What else is there to say?

Well, this Georgia Republicans, cheered on by Trump are holding rallies declaring that since the Dems stole the Presidential election, they aren't going to vote in the Senate runoffs. More power to them. After a few decades of Democrats working hard to elect Republicans, we're now seeing Republicans from Trump on down working hard to elect Democrats.

Peter Pan said...

The rise in voter participation and record vote totals for both candidates suggest otherwise. Trump got more votes than in 2016 despite his mishandling of the pandemic. Biden got more votes than Obama despite his failure to run an inspiring campaign.

What many had assumed, is that this election was about voting out Trump. The campaign, the misleading/fraudulent polls, and the results support that assumption.

Matt Franko said...

“We knew this already“

Dialogic Method 101: start with the thesis first...

lastgreek said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
lastgreek said...

"He handled it like an idiot."

He handled it the way he thought it was going to be good for him and him alone -- like the bloody sociopath that the jackass is. To hell with the "losers and suckers." Really no surprise there.

Georgia: Stacey Abrams...

[off topic]

You know, I finally upgraded my iphone -- 6s to the 11. Only reason I did was because it was a free upgrade. (Who says no to free stuff?) Was offered the 12 at a bit of a discount but said no thanks. The 12 is prettier I'll give it that, but even at a discount I thought it would have been lousy deal. I mean, 5G? Who cares, and it's not even available yet. Better photos in the dark? [snicker] And the new OLED display? When it comes to displays, no one comes close to Samsung. I think my eyes will thank me for sticking with the LCD :) And I still can't get over how a Samsung tablet (last year's S6 lite, for heaven's sake!), when I compared it to the new ipad air -- when comparing the display and the writing experience of the stylus, the S6 lite was by far better than the new ipad air. Not bad considering the S6 was half the price AND the stylus was included. Damn synchronicity :(

lastgreek said...

Also, Trump was stuck at the mid 40s range. Barely budged in 4 years. Who knows, maybe covid killed off enough of his "losers and suckers" to tilt the election in those tight states over to sleepy joe.

Can you believe it? He lost to sleepy joe!

lastgreek said...

There 's an American tech/geek youtube channel I follow. Really like the channel. Last week, out of the blue, he meandered off into a political discussion. I guess he couldn't help it. And what he said was that even though he voted for Trump in 2016, because of the way he mishandled covid there was no way he could have voted for him this time around. Too many died that should not have died according to him. I dunno, I mean Trump's history is an open book for all to see - a life of grifting and sociopathy. What the hell was he thinking when he voted for him in 2016, that the grifting and sociopathy was all of a sudden going to stop?

Peter Pan said...

Maybe he thought anything was better than a prepackaged status quo candidate.
Team Biden is sure to remind Americans how well that works.

Peter Pan said...

Btw, Mike went from Trump to Howie Hawkins. No following the zombies for him!

Calgacus said...

lastgreek:He handled it the way he thought it was going to be good for him and him alone

Sure - as Socrates said, no man wills anything but the Good. But usually he had been crazy like a fox. The one time I encountered the man, he actually showed some character and self-control, which made me less fearful of his Presidency than many. But his approach to Covid was as dumb as a box of rocks. Made George W. Bush or Dan Quayle look like geniuses.

Peter Pan: Vote totals, whatever. Doesn't contradict my & Tom's "sun rises in the East" position in any way. Enough people voted against him because he pulled a giant boner.

Peter Pan said...

People voted for or against him because he was Trump. What he actually did in terms of policy wasn't reflected in the vote count.

The sun rose in the West in 2016, and will do so again.

lastgreek said...

" Made George W. Bush or Dan Quayle look like geniuses."

OK, this is hindsight now, but I think it would be fair to say that the greatest American presidential election, in my lifetime at least, was the Bush-Gore election of 2000. Thinking of the never-ending wars that were unleashed...

Peter Pan said...

Bush-Gore was a preview of America's failed electoral process. Back then they had electro-mechanical voting machines, now its computerized. What a strange obsession with gadgets Americans have.