Sunday, December 6, 2020

Why Trump's America Will Live On — Joel Kotkin

Trump’s 2016 victory may be best considered a necessary colonic to a constipated political economy. He challenged in ways not seen for a generation the comfortable establishmentarian politics of both parties. Most critical of all, Trump, the scion of a property mogul, has re-established, along with his odd socialist doppelganger, Bernie Sanders, the relevance of class in American politics.

Trump may soon be out of power, but many of his views on international trade, media, economics and immigration will continue to influence politics for the next decade. We might see the end of President Trump, but the forces and attitudes he has unleashed likely will remain with us for decades to come.…

A deep dive into American politics. 

It is necessary to separate Donald J. Trump the personality from the politician that correctly recognized a political trend developing. This trend has far from peaked. 

Even though Trump the personality may fade into history, the political transition he both saw emerging and exploited skillfully will likely be around for some time. 

Both the populist right and the progressive left are seizing on it. Joel Kotkin argues that the populist right is more in tune with the time than the progressive left.

(This doesn't bode very well for adoption of MMT analysis as a policy tool.)

Kotkin doesn't mention it but the most complicating factor facing America and threatening the republic today is loss of confidence in the voting system, which was already under pressure prior to this election. 

It's not only the charge of allegations of voter fraud, doubt about electronic voting and other problems with the actual election, but also redistricting, voter suppression and other machinations to fix the process before the election takes place.

This more than anything else spells "banana republic," with all that implies. It can't be blamed on any person or party since it has been going on for so long with some many involved. It is traceable to the Civil War and aftermath, for example. But now we are on the brink of a full-scale constitutional crisis staring into the abyss of disorder. 

Spiked
Why Trump's America Will Live On
Joel Kotkin | Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University, executive director of the Urban Reform Institute, and author of The Coming of Neo-Feudalism (Encounter 2020).

See also
These crisis periods—“Ages of Discord”—have recurred in societies throughout history. Modern Americans may be disconcerted to learn that the US right now has much in common with the Antebellum 1850s and, more surprisingly, with ancien régime France on the eve of the French Revolution. Can it really be true that there is nothing new about our troubled time, and that similar ages arise periodically for similar underlying reasons? Ages of Discord marshals Structural-Demograpic Theory and detailed historical data to show that this is, indeed, the case. The book takes the reader on a roller-coaster ride through American history, from the Era of Good Feelings of the 1820s to our first Age of Discord, which culminated in the American Civil War, to post-WW2 prosperity and, finally, to our present, second Age of Discord.

 Peter Turchin, Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History


 


12 comments:

Peter Pan said...

Wrong link.
https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/12/04/why-trumps-america-will-live-on/

Matt Franko said...

“ full-scale constitutional crisis staring into the abyss of disorder. ”

It’s not a constitutional crisis the constitution prevents crisis... you just follow the constitution here through the judicial process and whatever the scotus rules goes... if you are unsuccessful in court you get another crack at it in 4 years it’s not forever...

If there are people who don’t accept the scotus ruling and create disorder you simply arrest them and send them to federal incarceration for a while ...

Tom Hickey said...

Thanks, PP. Fixed it.

Tom Hickey said...

Matt, we won't know until after the fact. If either side decides that it's a constitutional crisis (illegitimate election or resolution of disputed election) it will become one.

A country that is supposedly a democracy in which half the population doesn't accept the outcome of an election becomes ungovernable and if order is attempted to be restored, it will be regarded as illegitimate and therefore imposition of tyranny.

And it is not just the election that is involved, but alleged court packing, voter suppression, voter fraud, the whole range of banana republic shenanigans.

And this applies to both sides. So I don't see the US emerging from this and going back to business as usual. The system is breaking down and a "constitutional" solution is not possible in that neither side will accept its legitimacy.

I hope I am misjudging the level of intensity.

Tom Hickey said...

The irony is that this is exactly the game plan for regime change through color revolutions that the US has been following (State Dept., CIA, NGOs and associated stooges).

In fact, some conspiracy theorists believe that the CIA is behind this here in the US to steal the election from DJT.

Tom Hickey said...

University of Chicago Law School Professor Eric Posner, writing at Project Syndicate, disagrees with my assessment that this is leading to a constitutional crisis and thinks that everything will turn out OK. I certainly hope so. We'll soon see.

America Passed the Trump Stress Test

Peter Pan said...

Trump is a fascist!
Trump supporters are deplorable.
America's electoral system is fine just the way it is.

Keep pushing that narrative and the stress test will fail.

Matt Franko said...

And Pete it’s coming from a small minority cohort of trump deranged people ...

Matt Franko said...

We’ll know more after tomorrow PA has to go to Alito 9am tomorrow....

https://twitter.com/bmack764/status/1336015459322249216?s=21

Butch Busselle said...

Matt I don't it's a small minority. There seems to be a lot of people who are pretty sure we are now on a path to stability just b/c Biden won.

Butch Busselle said...

think. I don't think it's...

Peter Pan said...

1. "The application for injunctive relief presented to Justice Alito and by him referred to the Court is denied."

2. Guliani and Ellis are out with Covid.

3. Striiiiiiiike, you're out ?