Russia Has a Plan for Libya—Another Qaddafi [NOT]

The headline is misleading but the article is instructive otherwise.

Moscow has until now been seen as throwing in its lot with Khalifa Haftar, a military strongman who controls most of the oil-producing east of Libya. Yet Russia has been quietly building ties with all the competing factions, according to two European diplomats who study the Kremlin’s strategy. That puts it in a position to benefit more than other outside powers that support one side or another.…

“The West did everything it could to plunge this country into chaos,” said Alexander Dynkin, head of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, a state-run research group that advises the Kremlin. “Now all parties to the conflict trust Moscow.”

The West has been busy over the last several decades destroying its soft power as the bastion of liberal democracy and human rights. What to expect?

During the bloodletting, Saif al-Islam, 46, who studied at the London School of Economics and Political Science, was captured, put on trial and then freed in mid-2017 by the rebels who toppled and killed his father....

A representative of Qaddafi’s son met Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov in early December, delivering a letter on his behalf with greetings to Putin and the Russian government, explaining his political vision for Libya and asking for political support.…

Haftar also has his own presidential ambitions as do other Libyan politicians, and Russia hasn’t yet decided on supporting one particular candidate, said the person....

Russia does not have "a plan for Libya — another Qaddafi."

Bloomberg
Russia Has a Plan for Libya—Another Qaddafi

See also

The discussion demonstrated that there is no need for “Russia’s return”: its interaction with Africa was established in the Soviet times and has not disappeared ever since. The only question is what to do with this mutual “capital of trust”.

Valdai Discussion Club
No More Fairy Tales. Russia’s Goals and Interests in Africa

See also at Valdai

The stark realities of the world descending into a vortex of sanctions and protectionism have already given rise to a number of initiatives in the developing world targeting the creation of alternative institutions and integration groupings that would to some degree provide for additional venues for openness and liberalization across the developing world. Some of the key initiatives in this area included the launching of the BRICS+ format by China at the BRICS summit and its further development by South Africa during its chairmanship in BRICS in 2018.

These innovative approaches to economic integration increasingly point to a more active cooperation among not just the largest economies of the Global South but also the largest regional integration blocks led by BRICS economies. A potential megablock that brings together these regional integration arrangements denoted as BEAMS (BIMSTEC1, EAEU2, AU3, MERCOSUR4, and SCO5 – all on the basis of previous outreach undertakings by BRICS countries) could form the basis for the first megablock of the developing world that would have enough weight to provide a counterweight to other competing megaprojects such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) or the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP).

A new architecture is taking shape as the non-West reacts to perceived Western overreach.

Building with BRICS and BEAMS: A Constructivist Approach to Global Economic Architecture

John Helmer — KREMLIN ENDORSES KUDRIN CAPITULATION TO US “RESTRICTIONS”

Big — potentially, that is. Have to wait and see what it means. Kudrin is anathema to the Russian "deep state" (intel and military). There is apparently something of a power struggle going on in Russia now between the Western liberals and the conservative deep state, with the deep state holding the power if push comes to shove. Putin seems to be caught in the middle.

“If Kudrin joined the administration or government, it would indicate that they have agreed on a certain agenda of change, including in foreign policy, because without change in foreign policy, reforms are simply impossible in Russia… Kudrin is the only one in the top echelons with whom they will talk in the west and towards whom there is a certain trust.”

Opposition from the Russian military [who favors cutting the defense budget sharply and imposing Western neoliberal austerity] prevented Putin from following through. Instead, he gave Kudrin a caretaker role, nominating him to be Chairman of the Accounting Chamber, the state auditor....

Dances with Bears
KREMLIN ENDORSES KUDRIN CAPITULATION TO US “RESTRICTIONS”
John Helmer

See also

The Anglo-American candidate to be President of Russia, replacing Vladimir Putin, reprivatizing Russia’s resource assets, and emasculating the country’s defences, has made a fresh pitch.

Alexei Kudrin, sacked as Finance Minister, demoted as presidential economic adviser, then appointed Chairman of the Accounting Chamber five months ago, gave a speech to the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RUIE) in Moscow on Wednesday. “Today”, Kudrin declared, “Russia’s foreign policy should be subordinated to the reduction of tension in our relations with other countries and, at least, to the preservation or reduction of the sanctions regime, not to the build-up. Today I would measure the effectiveness of our foreign policy on these indicators. We do not have such global problems for Russia — risks of military and political importance which would require increasing tension with other countries.”

By other countries, Kudrin means the United States. By subordinating Russian foreign policy, Kudrin means withdrawal from Syria; from Crimea and the Donbass; and capitulation to US sanctions. By reduction of tension, Kudrin means regime change in the Kremlin – himself instead of Putin....

Dances with Bears

KUDRIN BIDS FOR OLIGARCH SUPPORT – CAPTAIN ALEXEI AMERICA VERSUS GENERAL SERGEI OF THE RUSSIAN ARMY
John Helmer

Pepe Escobar — It’s all Putin’s fault… but still he wins

Not just about the impending Russian election. It's a brief summary of most of what's important going on in Russia, none of which the Western media will touch.

Asia Times
It’s all Putin’s fault… but still he wins

Pepe Escobar

See also

The Myth of a Neo-Imperial China

Andranik Migranyan — Putin Is Not Bluffing about Confronting the West

The Russian POV.

The National Interest
Putin Is Not Bluffing about Confronting the West
Andranik Migranyan is a professor at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, an academic institution run by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia

Paul Robinson — Book Review: Should we fear Russia?

Dmitri Trenin, the director of the Carnegie Moscow Centre, is one of the more even-handed commentators on Russian foreign policy. On the one hand, he isn’t much of a fan of the ‘Putin regime’, and knows how to speak the sort of critical language required to confirm one’s reputation as a respectable thinker in the West. On the other hand, he avoids most of the hyperbole generally associated with commentary on things Russian, and isn’t one of those ‘non-systemic opposition’ types who gives the impression that Russia’s interests are best served by abject surrender to the United States. In light of the West’s current rampant Russophobia, his short (120-page) book Should We Fear Russia? is very timely….

Irrussianality
Book Review: Should we fear Russia?
Paul Robinson | Professor, Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa

Paul Robinson — Don’t Mention The War

Paul Robinson assess the recently released Russian government foreign policy statement.

Irrussianality

Don’t Mention The War

Paul Robinson | Professor, Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa

RIA Novosti — Putin signs new Russian foreign policy doctrine condemning NATO aggression

The conceptual document notes that the main trend at the contemporary stage of global development is the struggle for dominance in the world.

Fort Russ
Putin signs new Russian foreign policy doctrine condemning NATO aggression
RIA Novosti - translated by J. Arnoldski

The Saker — Assessing the Russian military as an instrument of power

Fairly detailed out on Russian military policy and military capabilities. "No, the Russians are not coming." Russia's military is defensive in nature, including MAD as a deterrent.

The Unz Review
Assessing the Russian military as an instrument of power
The Saker
Crossposted at The Vineyard of the Saker

Sergey Lavrov — Russia’s Foreign Policy: Historical Background

Backgrounder.

International relations have entered a very difficult period, and Russia once again finds itself at the crossroads of key trends that determine the vector of future global development.

Many different opinions have been expressed in this connection including the fear that we have a distorted view of the international situation and Russia’s international standing. I perceive this as an echo of the eternal dispute between pro-Western liberals and the advocates of Russia’s unique path. There are also those, both in Russia and outside of it, who believe that Russia is doomed to drag behind, trying to catch up with the West and forced to bend to other players’ rules, and hence will be unable to claim its rightful place in international affairs. I’d like to use this opportunity to express some of my views and to back them with examples from history and historical parallels.…

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation
Sergey Lavrov’s article "Russia’s Foreign Policy: Historical Background" 

for "Russia in Global Affairs" magazine, March 3, 2016

Thomas Graham: US-Russian relations have entered a new era — Andrei Sitov interviews Thomas Graham

In early February, one of the leading US experts on Russia, Thomas Graham, visited Moscow. Graham used to be Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Russia on the National Security Council staff from 2004 to 2007 and Director for Russian Affairs on that staff from 2002 to 2004. Now, he's is a managing director at Kissinger Associates, as well as one of the co-Directors of the Russian Studies Project at Yale. On his return to the United State, Thomas Graham was interviewed by TASS.

TASS
Thomas Graham: US-Russian relations have entered a new era
Andrei Sitov interviews Thomas Graham

South Front — Putin explains Russian forces’ objectives in Syria

Russian military forces in Syria are destroying militants who have openly declared Russia to be their enemy and who do not conceal their plans to expand their activities onto territory of CIS countries, said Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. This statement was posted on February 20 on Kremlin’s web site.

“Our armed forces ought to be in constant readiness to quickly and appropriately react to potential threats, counter any provocation and aggression,” Putin said during his speech marking the Fatherland Defender’s Day celebrations at the Kremlin.

Pretty much echoes G. W. Bush's, “We’re taking the fight to the terrorists abroad, so we don’t have to face them here at home.” The difference is that the threat is a lot more immediate to Russia than the US owing to geography and demographics.

South Front
Putin explains Russian forces’ objectives in Syria

Original published by lenta.ru; translation by J.Hawk

David C. Speedie — "Soft Power": The Values that Shape Russian Foreign Policy

In the increasingly frigid environment of U.S.-Russia relations, much attention is given to what may be seen as Russia's strategic "interests." (Of course, much of the policymaking class in the West seems to suggest that Russia is entitled to no "interests" whatsoever.) Of at least equal significance for understanding Russian attitudes, however, is a grasp of the values, the moral framework for Russia's foreign policy.

A valuable resource for this understanding is found in a recent article, "Russia's Orthodox Soft Power," by the University of Rhode Island scholar Nicolai Petro, who explores the "symphonic relationship" between the Russian Orthodox Church and the Russian state and the manner in which they both utilize the term Russky mir, or Russian World. For the discussion herein of what this entails, we are indebted to Professor Petro.

As Petro observes, the term Russky mir has been wrongly interpreted by some Western analysts as the "perverse intersection" between the Russian state and the Russian Orthodox Church; in reality, the term is employed differently by each party. Where the state uses it as a tool for expanding Russia's cultural and political influence, the Church views it as a spiritual concept linked to God's objective for the rebuilding of a Holy Rus.

The relationship between the two provides a popular and definable framework for Russian foreign policy. Values play a significant role in policy formulation and, throughout modern history, three constants dictate how Russia responds to Western actions: sovereignty, capability to defend that sovereignty, and loyalty to those who share Russia's sense of honor. (The 2014 conflict Ukraine exacerbated the perceived values gap between the West and Russia, yet Russia claims it occupies the higher moral ground by defending its core values of honor in the context of the unique historical, religious, and cultural bonds with Ukraine.)

In summary: The significance of religion in Russian life allows the state to garner huge social capital from having the blessing of the Orthodox Church, and likewise the Church benefits from the relationship by disseminating its message of Christianity worldwide via Russian foreign policy. For the state, Russky Mir is a political/cultural tool for strengthening domestic stability, worldwide status, and influence in neighboring states. For the Church, it is a religious foundation essential for reversing the secularization of society (which it sees as an unwelcome evolution already well underway in the West).…

Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs
"Soft Power": The Values that Shape Russian Foreign Policy

David C. Speedie. director of the Council's program on U.S. Global Engagement

James Carden — Moscow Has Very Clearly Stated Goals. Washington and the EU Do Not

U.S. foreign policy—perhaps during the Obama era more than at any time in the post-1989 period—couches its intention to further its geopolitical objectives through military might in the soft language of a universal democratizing ideology. It is shot through with ambiguity. 

Russia’s foreign policy is not.

National Interest
Moscow Has Very Clearly Stated Goals. Washington and the EU Do Not
James Carden

Saker — Listening to Lavrov giving up on the West

Yesterday, I watched with interest a talkshow called "The Right to Know" which featured an hour long interview with [Russian Foreign Minister] Sergei Lavrov (those who understand Russian can watch it here). It was an interesting exchange between Lavrov and five Russian reporters. It was not important enough to warrant translating it all into English, but I want to share with you something which I had noticed in the past but which was powerfully expressed during this conversation.…

The Vineyard of the Saker
Listening to Lavrov giving up on the West

Vineyard Saker