Tuesday, December 8, 2015
No one that I have seen has been more accurate on calling exchange rates than Matt Franko right here!
No one that I have seen has been more accurate at forecasting exchange rates than our own Matt Franko right here. He has correctly shown that it's about price setting by exporters. Central banks have largely been passive players.
It has NOTHING to do with that "harder to get" B.S. that we've been hearing for the past four years.
Good job, Matt!
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4 comments:
Well you still have to trade it Mike ... and get actionable intelligence on the financed commodity/product price changes in USD terms IN ADVANCE of the resultant currency adjustments which imo would be a lot of work but not impossible if you had enough staff to monitor the latest deals in the commodities.... I think you would need at least dozens of people who were wired into the relevant commodities/products deals...
Where can you source the information from?
Would shipping be relevant?
jake imo youd have to do it the old fashioned way with a staff of actual human beings and relationships... work the phones, attend conferences, get access to copies of invoices, etc... it would take a big effort but imo it could be done using the management fees if you had a hedge fund with $billions to manage...
Perhaps organize by currency pairs cross sectioned by the Ex/Im products...
imo it cant be done "on the cheap"... you'd need to do it professionally within the management of a large fund....
well how were able to make your correct calls so far,without doing it on the cheap.
Yeah you could look at the latest prices set in all the major commodities.
maybe being clued into shipbroking would help because they know the latest prices for major commodities,bulk cargo,oil,containers and which way the global trade flows are moving.
I was just thinking,The thing about USD is that as a lot of world trade is done in USD,some USD price setters will be foreign producers selling to other foreigners.so for that currency it could have zero to do with US producers but foreign ones.
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