Friday, September 21, 2018

Anatole Kaletsky — Why the US Would Lose A Trade War with China

In handicapping the US-China conflict, Keynesian demand management is a better guide than comparative advantage. In principle, China can avoid any damage at all from US tariffs simply by responding with a full-scale Keynesian stimulus....
Trump’s surprisingly successful rhetorical technique of “shout loudly and carry a white flag” helps to explain the consistent inconsistency of his foreign policy. The US-China trade war is likely to provide the next example.
Project Syndicate
Why the US Would Lose A Trade War with China
Anatole Kaletsky | Chief Economist and Co-Chairman of Gavekal Dragonomics and a former columnist at the Times of London, the International New York Timesand the Financial Times

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The sanctions for $50 billion, which have already been imposed, the new package for $200 billion on September 24, and even the prospect of imposing prohibitive duties on all Chinese exports are clearly not the full scenario of the anti-China strategy.
It is a multilateral, hybrid war, where trade and economic measures are only part of the arsenal. There are already attempts to influence China’s domestic policy, to weaken the position of the Communist Party.
However, our American partner must be confident that no country should expect China to trade its key interests, no one can have the slightest hope that we will taste bitter fruits of infringement of sovereignty, security and interests of the state.
As for the China-Russia relations, America’s announcement that Moscow and Beijing are its strategic rivals only brings us closer. As the Russians say, behind bad luck comes good luck.
China will invest to the Russian agriculture at the expense of the US treasuries in order to import more quality Russian products; to the joint design and production of wide-body planes instead of Boeing; to the development of the Russian Far East and the adjacent Northeast of China. And recently poor but now well-to-do Chinese tourists will willingly visit the beautiful Russia, which is close to our hearts.
Well, China and Russia will become even closer to each other, they will stay back to back to repel common challenges, and hand in hand for the development of their economies….
Valdai Club (Russia)
Trade War Is Only Part of the US Deterrence Strategy
Sheng Shiliang | Senior Research Fellow, Global Challenges Studies, Xinhua News Agency; Researcher and Director of Russian Internal Affairs Office, Euro-Asia Social Development Research Institute; and Executive Member of Center of Shanghai Cooperation Organization Studies

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In an exclusive interview, the former White House chief strategist says Beijing was caught off guard by the magnitude of the plan he hatched with Trump...
 South China Morning Post
‘Trump won’t back down’: US president plans to make trade war unbearable for China and bigger than ever, Steve Bannon says
Sasha Gong

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Trump Thinks He Has the Advantage in His Trade War with China — But It Could Backfire in a Big Way
By Marshall Auerback | Independent Media Institute

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Sputnik International
China, Russia Capable of Outlasting US’ Economic Attacks

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