Wednesday, September 19, 2018

Links — 20 September 2018

Reminiscence of the Future 
Andrei Martyanov

Dances with Bears
Putin’s Forfeit – From Strategic Mistake to Strategic Defeat in 24 Hours
John Helmer

France partly to blame for Russian plane’s crash, says military expert

Fort Russ
The Overarching Strategic Logic Behind Provocations Against Russia: 2014-2018
Padraig McGrath

Fort Russ News
Joaquin Flores

Strategic Culture Foundation
Two Major Middle East Projects Are Afoot and Gaining Mass; They May Collide Before Long
Alastair Crooke | founder and director of the Conflicts Forum, and former British diplomat and senior figure in British intelligence and in European Union diplomacy

Zero Hedge
Alibaba's Jack Ma Cancels Promise For 1 Million US Jobs Amid US-China Trade Dispute

Zero Hedge
Hillary Clinton On Putin's "Three Dimensional Chess": "They Wanted To Get Me Out Of The Way"
Tyler Durden


Matt Franko said...

“ the latest Israeli provocation”

Seems like somehow now the Israelis have “provoked “ one of their S-400s to shoot down their own aircraft....

Tom Hickey said...

Matt, do you actually read these link before commenting? It's explained to a great extent in the first one by Martyanov, which is way I put it at the top and labeled it important.

Matt Franko said...

It’s still friendly fire Tom under any circumstances ... Keystone Kops ... gang that couldn’t shoot straight....

The system lacks discrimination... no excuses....

Konrad said...

“Do you actually read these links before commenting?”

Franko’s vile and spontaneous utterances are verbal tics – i.e. a written form of Tourette's syndrome.

Matt Franko said...

Hey Maybe Israel will go up and just kick Russia’s ass to prove this whole “end times!” BS is all false... if it is false..

Matt Franko said...

Maybe they were drunk????

Tom Hickey said...

Have your read the articles? Obviously not, it is seems.

BTW, this is a very important time for the world. Almost no one that is talking about it understands the big picture, how the different parties are playing this, and what the stakes are.

It is highly nuanced and the slightest mistake will be very costly and a big mistake could be very costly for all of us.

Most of what you will be reading in the "news" is just nonsense.

Konrad said...

Please do not feed that pathetic idiot who has Tourette's syndrome.

I read that first article, which says, “There will be no ‘annihilation’ of Israel, nor will there be any shooting war between Russia and the Jewish State as many would love and lust it to be.”

Of course not, since Russia carries Israel’s water, just like most other nations.

“There will, however, be some form of no-fly zone.”

Which is meaningless, since Israelis routinely violate “no-fly zones” with impunity, as they did this time. They intentionally used a Russian IL-20 as radar cover, causing fifteen Russians to be blasted out of the sky.

Putin called these murders “regrettable.” What are fifteen Russian lives (or fifteen thousand) compared with Israeli wishes?

“In the end, this tragedy, should serve as a real serious lesson and, in a military sense a warning that one better stick to the agreements or things may spiral out of control very fast.”

More nonsense. The Israelis are always in full control of any situation, since they know they will get away with anything. Consider their attack on the USS Liberty.

The Israelis caused fifteen Russian servicemen to be killed. This is not the first time, nor will it be the last.

Putin responds by calling Israeli crimes “regrettable” and “not helpful.”


Tom Hickey said...

Much more complicated than that.

Basically, the US is presenting Putin with a damned if you do and damned if you don't dilemma.

One horn is provoking Russia to react aggressively so as to totally isolate Russia and prepare for it military destruction.

The other horn is to make Putin look like wimp so he will be overthrown by a faction that will be favorable to a settlement with the US where Russia becomes a US vassal.

Putin wants to avoid increasing hostilities with the US unless attacked.

On the other hand, if Putin is replaced on that score before the next election it will be because the Russian people demand action, so it would likely be a military coup that brings defense minster Shoigu to power.

If the US is aiming to replace Putin constitutionally with a US puppet, dream on.

But the reality is that Putin has to carry out what he sees as his mission, dealing with international leaders that aren't in line with it, keeping the Russian military and deep state on board, continuing to improve Russian's lives, and keeping the hawkish public who want "decisive action" at bay.

Thus Putin is key in all this, and it was bound to happen when he won reelection by an overwhelming margin of victory.

The US will continue to put the squeeze on him with more sanctions, stepping up the ante in Ukraine, and challenging Russia in Syria.

The key to this strategy is that the US has apparently gamed it out and concluded that Russia will not unleash nuclear Armageddon if the US launches an attack so the chances of a big surprise are low.

Putin is aware of all this, of course, and playing the game that way. I just haven't seen anyone put it together publicly yet, although the pieces are already out there.

Konrad said...

“Much more complicated than that.”

You are rationalizing Putin’s cowardice. Always people like you imply that Putin is playing 4th dimensional chess. I don’t buy it. Fifteen men were killed, and Putin is shitting on their families.


“Putin wants to avoid increasing hostilities with the US unless attacked.”

How many Russians have to die before Putin decides that Russia has been “attacked”? He’s a coward.


I shift my alliance to the USA and Israel. Whoever grovels like maggots deserves to be enslaved.

Konrad said...

"Much more complicated than that."

What is complicated about cowardice and sycophancy?

I was serious about shifting my alliance to the USA and Israel. If Russia's pathetic little maggots enjoy being stepped on, then I shall oblige them.

Fifteen men murdered? Their own government doesn't care about them so why should I?

F--k 'em.

Kaivey said...

I quite like Putin, and I think he is doing incredibly well under the pressure. He is dealing with psychopathic mass murderers, so he has to be careful.

Matt Franko said...

The Russians don’t really want to be there... just going thru the motions....

Israel is defending its homeland directly and US is still motivated to kill jihadis anywhere on the planet from 9-11...

Shows in the Russian performance....a

Tom Hickey said...


Made-up mind.

Simplistic thinking.

Tom Hickey said...

Fifteen men murdered? Their own government doesn't care about them so why should I?

Who has the upper hand militarily in the region?

It isn't Russia or Iran, as the military analysts familiar with the situation have pointed out in some of the links I have put up.

Tom Hickey said...

The Russians don’t really want to be there... just going thru the motions....

More nonsense.

Why don't people read the links before commenting and address the specific points addressed in them.

Russia is in Syria for one reason. It regards this as vital to its national security.