Hume Liberal Art trained (B.A. in English UVa 1965) doesnt understand functional relationships like Dr. Fauci does... and is instead pointing towards useless stochastic analysis as if it has any value...
Hume doesn't understand the lack of efficacy of stochastic analysis.... Fauci in contrast is highly trained in functional relationships in immunology so any type of stochastic analysis is always going to look at least questionable if not stupid to him... I understand Fauci here...
Its the old "correlation is not causation!" at work here...
Hume should not be allowed to provide any type of opinion on this situation... he should be barred from this... maybe let him check the spellings...
Dr. Fauci on Fox News tonight, on modeling: “I have always been and still am and will always be somewhat reserved and skeptical of models because models are only as good as the assumptions that you put into the models.” 1/2— Brit Hume (@brithume) April 11, 2020
49 comments:
Its about knowing the limit of your model and knowing that models become revised/updated as more data is collected. Models are necessary as a way to form a theory but NO model is complete, in the sense that, it has incorporated every possible bit of data and can be thought of as right. It can be better or worse than another but no model has reached status of complete and unrevisable. If my model better incorporates current data it is ahead but yours could still end up in time, as some piece of undiscovered data turns up, being better.
That’s what science is about
"Models are necessary as a way to form a theory "
its really a Hypothesis Greg... theres a difference...
If you jump to an actual Theory then you are saying that is the way it is which when you test it the test could return a false result...
So you (in Science) perhaps use models to form a hypothesis and then test that hypothesis and if it returns the false then you just simply discard it... and start to make corrective adjustments to form a new hypothesis to test again...
The Wright brothers didnt keep going back to Kitty Hawk year after year testing the same airplane which never flew...
so you have the Liberal Art people creating a Theory maybe like "an increase in money supply causes inflation!"... then their "money supply!" increases and prices collapse and then they dont discard the Theory because it ALREADY IS A THEORY...
then the other Liberal Art people who have a competing Theory start making up conspiracy theories and all kind of other deranged activity...
We should just ban the Liberal Art method...
" no model has reached status of complete and unrevisable. "
Vaccinations work well enough to be considered "complete"... what is called 'functional' in applied Science...
So Fauci wants a vaccine... he understands the functional relationships of the human immune system and wants to intervene functionally in that system... to prevent the human disease caused by this pathogen...
iow this Quinine with the Z antibiotic or WTF is perhaps some form of treatment but it is not ideal like a vaccine would be...
Fauci the highly qualified immunologist is at a high political/administrative level in the Disciipline of Immunology down here at NIH and is not going to let the eye come off the prize which is a vaccine...
The HCQ or wtf is not ideal..
"All models are wrong, but some are useful" -- George Edward Pelham Box
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_E._P._Box
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_models_are_wrong
PS: Not suggesting anything here, but I heard the other day that some adult websites, such as pornhub.com, are doing their part to help flatten the curve by offering free premium access online. I mean, whatever it takes to keep people indoors, right? ;)
Here:
https://www.newsmax.com/FastFeatures/vaccines-history-successful/2015/06/27/id/652543/
"4. Small Pox
In the United States, children no longer need to be immunized against small pox because previous vaccines have eradicated it. In fact, the last U.S. small pox case occurred in 1948, while the last cases in the world occurred in Somalia in 1977, ProCon.org noted."
that is close enough to be considered "complete"...
Me, I'm the go-to person at home for the math and science stuff. So, if my kid, who is in grade 9, has any questions about math or science (specifically biology or chemistry) she comes to me, and any other subject falls to my wife. So, for example, when it comes to, let's say, understanding conversion of metric units of volume, or unit conversions with area and volume, c'est moi; French verbs? the wife.
Why do I bring this up? Because we just finished unit conversions, and the one thing I stressed to my kid is not just going through the mechanics of doing something, but knowing if what you get at the end, your final answer, makes any god-damn sense. In other words, use your genetic gift of... intuition :)
"Intuition is just as important as hard numbers and perfect models." Harry Crane
Harry Crane@HarryDCrane
When gambling, think about what's probable.
When hedging, think about what's plausible.
When preparing, think about what's possible.
Jonas Salk
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonas_Salk
The other thing Greg is that they are looking at these "models" that illustrated numerous deaths and then we went sequestration and shutdown now the results ofc dont hit those previous high numbers due to our human behaviour modifications and they are saying "hey! the models were wrong!"
How do these peoples brains even work????
SCARY!!!
Fauci is probably like "how stupid are these f-ing people?" Just wants to get on with developing the functional vaccines...
How do these peoples brains even work????
SCARY!!!
Matt, I know that you like to mock art major here. But I have a serious question for you, really I am not joking around -- have you ever encountered a more fucked up, damn-ass human being than this orange turd here?
"This is a very brilliant enemy. You know, it’s a brilliant enemy. They develop drugs like the antibiotics. You see it. Antibiotics used to solve every problem. Now one of the biggest problems the world has is the germ has gotten so brilliant that the antibiotic can’t keep up with it." orange turd just the other day
The orange turd, the president of the United States, for fuck's sake!!!, is impressed that a VIRAL -- a VIRAL!!! -- infection is outsmarting ANTIBIOTICS!!!.
He's smart in what he is trained in... which is Business...
He's got a BS in Economics from Penn (same as Mike) and has been in numerous diverse business his entire life... made a bunch of munnie...
I dont expect him to be very informed in disease treatment and immunology he has people to do that for him...
He comes at it from a Business perspective... he's pretty easy to read for me...
the other thing is he may be talking about secondary infections which are often accociated with upper respiratory viral infections...
iow the viral infections dirupt the normal upper respiratory functions and a bacterial infection can often result in lower respiratory (pneumonia, etc)..
But apparently this thing causes some sort of other non bacterial lower respiratory problems so the "normal" prophalactic administration of anti biotics to prevent the "normal" lower respiratory problems isnt working...
He just sees the "normal" treatment orders of anti biotics not working to protect the lower respiratory and this is how he describes it...
He's not stupid...
First off, we don’t really know if he’s “made a bunch of money” or any damn thing about his finances since he’s never allowed himself a full audit, or at least to have the results to be released. We know he has way more failed businesses than successful ones. His “net worth” might be substantial but that could simply be because the “value” of many of his assets ( stocks, real estate etc) are well above what he owes, but because he is carrying so much debt his wealth is quite fragile. He may in fact not “own” anything yet because he hasn’t been able to pay any of his debts off. Falls in real estate values and stock markets could make his net worth negative real quick.
He’s far from the only one in this situation but there are plenty of rich guys who aren’t carrying nearly as much debt relative to net worth as he is.
I’m not convinced he’s a good businessman, he’s mostly a fraud. He’s a bully who stiffs people , doesn’t hold his end of bargain up often and uses courts and lawyers as a weapon in his.
The data support my theory that he’s a fraud than your theory that he’s a genius businessman
There’s a reason he doesn’t want anyone seeing his financial records, and he’s the ONLY govt official in last 50 years that has done this. Your a dupe Matt if you don’t question the veracity of any of his business claims.
Getting dads money is the orange clowns business model.
He had a nice head start that is for sure...
He has a hell of a lot more munnie than any of us....
Greg a lot of those businesses he never put any munnie into...
iow he gets investors to put in all the munnie and then gives them 49% and he takes the other 51% equity stake for his management and his name cachet...
Trump Vodka... Trump University... Trump Shuttle... Trump this.... Trump that...
So if the thing fails, its not like he had any munnie in it in the first place...
Anything he was able to take out is a gain... because he never put any munnie in in the first place...
Lots of people do that... you just have to find the accredited investors... ie other big munnie people to go in...
“the other thing is he may be talking about secondary infections which are often accociated with upper respiratory viral infections...”
Covid is NOT an upper respiratory viral infection, it’s not secondary bacterial infections that are killing people
“iow the viral infections dirupt the normal upper respiratory functions and a bacterial infection can often result in lower respiratory (pneumonia, etc)..”
True often with flus, not with Covid
“But apparently this thing causes some sort of other non bacterial lower respiratory problems so the "normal" prophalactic administration of anti biotics to prevent the "normal" lower respiratory problems isnt working...”
BULLSHIT! There is no prophylactic administration of antibiotics. Antibiotics are used when there is evidence of overlapping bacterial infection)
“This thing” , Covid, does it’s damage on type 2 pneumocytes , Lung cells responsible for creation of surfactant . This is well understood at this point.
Trump needs to,learn when to keep his mouth shut. He thinks his opinion is equal to the experts even on things he is completely ignorant of
"BULLSHIT! There is no prophylactic administration of antibiotics. BULLSHIT! There is no prophylactic administration of antibiotics. Antibiotics are used when there is evidence of overlapping bacterial infection)"
They dont wait for actual pneumonia to order anti biotics... you could just have brochitis before pneumonia... strep... wtf...
Trump isnt going to get into the weeds like this during a whitehouse presser...
He's just saying antibiotics dont work... which is true...
Notice here no figurative language: "There is no prophylactic administration of antibiotics. Antibiotics are used when there is evidence of overlapping bacterial infection)"
no we should just say "we dont serve dessert before the main course!" like Art Degree morons...
Matt's art degree envy makes him paint windmills again and ride that hobbyhorse stick, all in the name of science!
no maybe "the scoreboard doesnt change until the ball crosses the goal line!"
or "you dont close the barn door until the horse is in the stall!"
Who needs non-figurative treatment protocols!!!!
S, just take the L....
I’m talking about with these covid patients Matt. They aren’t giving these people antibiotics as a rule and it’s not secondary bacterial infections which is killing them
Yes, some doctors order antibiotics before there is evidence of infection, but that is considered poor practice AND directly responsible for the number of super infections not responsive to common antibiotics Giving somebody an antibiotic before they have evidence of infection and then claiming victory for holding off infection is............ not science. It’s the exact opposite of science
Im with ya...
But Fauci is taking some heat from the right currently... based on these "models" not turning out as projected...
I think he is just protective of the development of a vaccine as the ultimate solution..
The HCQ and z pack is not ideal and he knows it....
May be some correlation there but nobody can explain what is actually happening in scientific terms... to Fauci's satisfaction anyway...
“Fauci is taking some heat from the right currently“
Notice the figurative language by the envious of art degrees.
And Trump talks about this like it’s something miraculous that the “germ” has acquired unmatched intelligence. If he frikken understood biology, genetics and evolution he’d talk about with less surprise. Yes, they are “intelligent “ ...... and they don’t even have a brain!!!!!! How can that be!
And his followers listen to him and have the same amazement, lack of curiosity in genetics and biology, and as soon as they get a cough go ask their doctor for antibiotics ...... and when they don’t die they think “man those antibiotics saved my life”. , when in fact they might get a real infection down the road that doesn’t respond well TO antibiotics
Vaccine and testing are critical to a return to normalcy. Ohio is going to have a test soon (others will too I’m sure) that can also detect if you’ve already been exposed and have antibodies. Get those out on mass scale and we can make some intelligent, science based decisions on where and how to get people out of their houses and back to life.
BTW.......Google “ Flatten the curve #inThisTogetherOhio” and see how some Art Majors created something very valuable
“the “germ” has acquired unmatched intelligence“
With some bribe and Trump persuasion it can be sent back to China.
Daniel Dale@ddale8
Here's the official transcript of part of the president's remarks about how smart the coronavirus is, and also how brilliant germs are.
https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1248811186432413707/photo/1
------------------------------------------------------------------
Paul Waldman@paulwaldman1
Sometimes I think about how everyone thought George W. Bush was kinda dumb, man those were some crazy times
------------------------------------------------------------------
Mehdi Hasan@mehdirhasan
Intellectually, Trump makes Bush look like Descartes
Trump is playing 5 dimensional chess blindfolded with the ultra smart virus.
“He has a hell of a lot more munnie than any of us....”
He started with more and pretty much anyone with a net worth over a qtr million has more than overwhelming majority of us. Thanks to no house debt and two retirement accounts (my wifes and mine) I’m in that situation too. I’m no genius businessman
“Greg a lot of those businesses he never put any munnie into...”
So do you think the average guy thinks that if you don’t put any of your own money into anything that you really should be considered as owning it or being able to take any credit for its successes or failures? Not to mention, how much does someone care about something if they won’t put any of their own money into it”
“iow he gets investors to put in all the munnie and then gives them 49% and he takes the other 51% equity stake for his management and his name cachet...”
Perfect description of a grifter
“Trump Vodka... Trump University... Trump Shuttle... Trump this.... Trump that...”
Scam, super scam, failure, etc etc. You aren’t making your case very well for him being worthy of proving that a BSc in Econ is somehow superior
“So if the thing fails, its not like he had any munnie in it in the first place...”
Exactly!!! A scam. Why you find any of this something to praise I’ll never understand
“Anything he was able to take out is a gain... because he never put any munnie in in the first place...”
See above lather rinse repeat
“Lots of people do that... you just have to find the accredited investors... ie other big munnie people to go in...”
As percentage of population very FEW do this. Many would consider it completely wrong to even think of doing this. And the presence of this activity makes it harder for actual hard working guys who DO want to put in their life savings into something of value to them. It makes it more expensive for the little guys. All the sweet financing deals go to the billion dollar deals (a small percentage of a large amount of money) while the little guy gets a lot less favorable financing.
You aren’t moving the needle with these arguments
Trump has managed to always land on his feet and has bravado unmatched by actual performance but he has needed and used so many other people and manages to always discredit them while grabbing lions share of praise.
Thats the nicest thing I can say about Trump
It’s not illegal activity and a lot of people in business operate that way...
Warren Buffet sometimes operates that way...
He may buy a big % of the float and then seek to influence management for his own purposes...
Marriott operates that way... many others..
I never said it was illegal...... but legality is not the metric I’m using. Legality is a floating metric. Many things that weren’t illegal 10 years ago are now and vice versa. Legal in America might be illegal in UK
I broke it down for you. If you don’t put any of your own money in ..... 1) You aren’t taking as much risk as the guy who puts his own money in. You don’t take risk you shouldn’t get return. 2). Your propensity to stick it out and make it work should be questioned too
3) You aren’t building businesses that actually give our economy long term value, your using the magic of deb/ equity relationships to make a quick buck. Again, not illegal, just not someone I would hail as being such a good businessman that knows how to build things of value
Buffets building of businesses dwarfs Trump. Marriotts too. Trump isn’t in same league. Trump is a high school baseball player with a live arm to those guys MLB All Star credentials
"And Trump talks about this like it’s something miraculous that the “germ” has acquired unmatched intelligence. If he frikken understood biology,...."
Trump is simply using figurative language in the form of personification to describe the real functions of the pathogen... which are properly/competently best understood through the abstractions of the biologic or bio chemistry science... but Trump is not trained in that but people still expect him to say something... and his poll numbers are UP... waaaaay UP...
Trump doesnt have Fauci's job... if Fauci talked that way we'd be in BIIIIIIIIIIGGGGGG trouble..
You guys are making my point... just take the L...
So this figurative language from Trump who is not a biologist is bad BUT the MMT people do the same thing with their stupid figurative "its like points on a scoreboard!" but that is good????
Both are inadequate for professional/competent purposes...
Trump is not saying he is a biologist... but MMT people DO say they are economists...
Ask Trump what a class A office buildout costs in mid town Manhattan he'll probably say "$60 psf" or wtf in a micro second... no figurative language.. or ask him what a blackjack pit should yield if it has a regulated 96% payout... he'd answer immediately... that is what he does/did ... no figurative language...
Greg the people he gets to go in are not unsophisticated people... they all have their big boy pants on... they know what they are getting into..
I would never do it.... but many people are not me...
What degree does Warren Buffet have? Or Marriott?
Here is a sciencey thing for you to do Matt; find out all the people who have Econ or business degrees from Penn, you know the science guys, and make a list. Then with the magic of search engines let’s find out what they do, where they have been quoted and what they actually say about our “debt to China” or “out of money”. This of course would not “prove” anything but it would be a data point of some value
You should jump on this. It’s a real chance to show your science pedigree plus an opportunity to show you aren’t just trying to play politics but really care about advancing an understanding of humanity. You might very well be right that Art degrees are the scourge you say they are......... and we should know this!!! If you can prove this I’ll join you in your campaign to get them all exposed for the threats they are to progress. If you can’t take this basic first step, I’m just going to consider you a fraud. Not interested in advancing understanding of important matters
"Trump Vodka!" yo people f-ing buy that.. I dont... but there are apparently people out there who do... I buy Tito's...
We went down to his new hotel in DC right before inauguration.. kids were off so we went down there to sight see and I was going to get them a burger and fries for lunch at the Trump ...
$24 for burger and fries....
We ofc left... I wasnt going to pay for a f-ing burger and fries that but the place was PACKED...
to each his own..
btw light rain that day and glass atrium roof in lobby was leaking... buckets everywhere...
I think it was intended to be a flip....
Lol! Matt’s interpretations of what the great orange is really thinking and saying takes new heights.
When it comes down to it Matt is just making shit up as he goes. Ridiculous.
"opportunity to show you aren’t just trying to play politics but really care about advancing an understanding of humanity."
Ummmmmmm... that 's what I am doing...
A good society would shut down a Trump “businessman” based on fraud. But then again a good society isn’t there. Scammers like Trump have a ball.
“Ummmmmmm... that 's what I am doing...“
Haha! Made my day!
Buffet has a BS Econ from Nebraska and maybe Penn.. then went to Columbia for MS under Graham and Dodd and that whole thing... long time ago...
Started with an Insurance scheme out of some shirt factory back in Nebraska and has grown in over 50 years into present Berkshire Hathaway and he is the most wealthy person on planet earth...
S, take the L...
Trump in FACtT has claimed he understands this stuff as well as the biologists. The doctors told him they were amazed by what he knew according to his deluded self.
Trump thinks people want him to say something about the science/biology/ epidemiology He should take DeWines approach and just say “Hey I’m a politician and I’ll ah die the politics of this, I’ll let the doctors talk about that stuff” but his insatiable ego won’t let him. Trump needs to catch corona virus ASAP and get intubated. He can’t talk with an endotracheal tube between his vocal cords.
Whether those guys know what they are getting into isn’t the point
The point is whether Trump has the chops to build an economy of sustainable businesses based on his history in the business world. You claim because of his BSc in Econ from Penn he is qualified I claim his history suggests he’s never built anything resembling a successful business from the ground up using his own resources, which is how the vast majority of businesses are going to need to be built
If you don’t put any of your own money in ..... 1) You aren’t taking as much risk as the guy who puts his own money in. You don’t take risk you shouldn’t get return. 2). Your propensity to stick it out and make it work should be questioned too
3) You aren’t building businesses that actually give our economy long term value,"
He is risking his polished brass plated reputation and he still has to provide the management of it out of his end...
Property industry doesnt have very long term value... it depreciates very quickly... hotels need to be completely gutted and renovated every 10-15 years max... usually they are sold at that time.. new group comes in... guts the place and reopens ... they put in about same amount they pay for the old hotel as is...
iow pay 15m as is and put in 15m and have 30m in at that point and look to run it 10-15 years... then flip it over to somebody else...
thats about the industry model
Greg he is pretty much responsible for the NYC renaisance coming out of the 70s...
He went in there with the Tower project when nobody else was doing much of anything and the City was really in bad shape... it turned out a big success back then and everybody else glommed in then...
Place was very dangerous and worn out... crime, etc..
Its been pretty good there since lately so he himself started a 30 year run for NYC...
then that got him into Atlantic City with the Casinos which was also in pretty bad shape...he was more or less the first in there too...
He's made some real contributions over the decades... not every time but nobody does well every time..
Buffet just sold his Delta Airlines and Southwest Air here near the bottom...
Probably just took the L and is moving on to something else he sees...
Not everything works out.. 1 out of 3 gets you Cooperstown in first ballot...
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