Friday, August 21, 2015

Fort Russ — The real reason behind Kiev's coming offensive is to plunge Russia into economic crisis

It seems that the bound for defeat Kiev's intention to attack Donbass has received its justification. They want to disconnect Russia from SWIFT and destroy it, this time once and for all. The Polish Vice-President of the European Parliament, Ryszard Czarnecki has literally said the following:
"As a result of exclusion from the international SWIFT system, the state budget of Russia would lose 10%, while Russia's GDP would decrease by 5% per year."

"The exclusion of Russia from the international SWIFT system", - he said in response to the question of what sanctions mean.
"Due to this decision, the Russian Federation will lose 5% of GDP per year. I want to draw your attention to the fact that for the first two quarters of the year, Russia has lost 4.6% of GDP. For the end of the year, the state treasury would lose 10%, it would be a calamity," - he said.
Ukraine cannot mount an offensive without the go ahead from the US. All major politicians are now US operatives. This raises the possibility of a false flag to create cover for the operation, blaming it on "Putler" and tightening the sanctions.

There are some problems with this scenario, however, such as the US keeping its European vassals in tow. While there are many indications that speak for it, I'm taking a wait and see attitude.

The window of launching an operation and concluding it before bad weather begins is closing. And as winter approaches Ukraine and Europe become more dependent on Russian energy. However, the US military would likely be running the operation behind the scenes instead of the incompetent Ukrainian general staff, so the thinking might well be that this time is different.

Shutting Russia out of SWIFT would almost certainly see a shut down of the pipelines to Europe. That would likely be worse for Europe than shutting down SWIFT for Russia. The question is whether the US cares. But that could have the effect of creating greater demands in Europe for ending sanctions altogether, which are already biting.

Fort Russ
The real reason behind Kiev's coming offensive is to plunge Russia into economic crisis
@Friend, Live Journal
Translated for Fort Russ by Soviet Bear


Random said...

Shhh, a Russian oil cutoff may cause disintegration of the eurozone and EU here. :D

Random said...
Promote to post?

Random said...
Cameron on top form :)

Dan Lynch said...

Russia already has a functioning domestic payments system, and has been working on an international payments system to replace SWIFT. Plus they have improved relations with China and in a pinch could route financial transactions through China. I'm not seeing SWIFT as a viable threat at this point.

More likely the point of Ukie aggression is to solicit a reaction from Russia. We don't want peace breaking out because then the public might wonder why NATO still exists and that would be bad for the military-industrial complex.