Friday, March 8, 2019

Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson - What goes up: are predictions of a population crisis wrong?

Changing fertility rates challenge dystopian visions and UN projections about the future of our overcrowded planet


Some good news, World population may peak at below 9 billion and then start to go down. As people become urbanized they don't want so many children. In the field extra hands are useful, in a city an extra child is an extra mouth to feed. And women want careers and less children.


These remarks offer a window on one of the most compelling questions of our time: how many people will fill the Earth? The United Nations Population Division projects that numbers will swell to more than 11 billion by the end of this century, almost 4 billion more than are alive today. Where will they live? How will we feed them? How many more of us can our fragile planet withstand?
But a growing body of opinion believes the UN is wrong. We will not reach 11 billion by 2100. Instead, the human population will top out at somewhere between 8 and 9 billion around the middle of the century, and then begin to decline.

ørgenRanders, a Norwegian academic who decades ago warned of a potential global catastrophe caused by overpopulation, has changed his mind. “The world population will never reach nine billion people,” he now believes. “It will peak at 8 billion in 2040, and then decline.”Similarly, Prof Wolfgang Lutz and his fellow demographers at Vienna’s International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis predict the human population will stabilise by mid-century and then start to go d Deutsche

Deutsche Bank report has the planetary population peaking at 8.7 billion in 2055 and then declining to 8 billion by century’s end.


The Guardian

Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson - What goes up: are predictions of a population crisis wrong?

12 comments:

Konrad said...

I say that world population has already peaked. Birthrates have been falling for years in the USA and in many other countries. Where I live, the population is 40% Hispanic, and even their birthrates are falling. They tell me that kids are too expensive, especially if kids get sick.

And as Kaivey notes, women want careers, not kids. 65% of all college students in the USA are female. As women continue to rise in affluence, and men continue to plunge, women become increasingly selective in choosing mates. The shortage of “good men” (i.e. rich men) is accelerating the fall in birthrates. Moreover the West is waging war on straight white males.

Political correctness prohibits us from mentioning these things. Therefore scientists say they are “baffled” by falling birthrates.

The number of deaths in Spain has outpaced the number of births for years. Many towns in Spain are abandoned. Bulgaria's population is shrinking faster than any other nation in the world. Singapore has the lowest fertility rate in the world. China’s fertility rate is falling too, despite the government's 2016 decision to allow families to have more than one child.

Since Latvia joined the European Union in 2004, nearly 20% of the country's population has left to seek employment in others parts of the bloc. And that Latvian exodus has nearly doubled since 2014 when Latvia submitted to the bankers by adopting the euro. In Japan and South Korea the population is falling so fast that the governments are offering cash incentives to people who have more than one child. (But the government incentives are not big enough to make a difference.)

In my opinion the main cause is inequality and banker tyranny. Quite simply, it’s too expensive to have kids and raise them.

Other factors will accelerate the population loss. Pollution, plus climate change, will cause famines and the loss of drinkable water. Many people in the West want nuclear war with Russia and China. Debt continues to explode, as do medical costs and housing prices. Fukishima continues to spew deadly radiation. Monsanto’s carcinogenic glyphosate is now everywhere. Many insects species are going through mass extinction. Big Pharma is paying politicians to make more and more vaccines mandatory, in order to keep the population sick, and therefore profitable.

Population loss may be a good thing. Despite China’s falling birthrate, China still has too many people. China is so crowded that if you want to go to the beach, you must get a reservation a month in advance. Reservations are limited. And still Chinese beaches are overcrowded.

Andrew Anderson said...

In my opinion the main cause is inequality and banker tyranny. Konrad

And the cause of that is ignorance of the Old Testament:

“You shall not charge interest to your countrymen: interest on money, food, or anything that may be loaned at interest. You may charge interest to a foreigner, but to your countrymen you shall not charge interest, so that the Lord your God may bless you in all that you undertake in the land which you are about to enter to possess. Deuteronomy 23:19-20 New American Standard Bible (NASB)

Yeah, we all know you're not a Jew, Konrad, but the Old Testament is to be read and respected by Christians too, of which there are still a lot, at least in the US, or so they claim to be.

Konrad said...

Eternal wisdom from the Dead Sea Scrolls...

התנ"ך היהודי נכתב על ידי יהודים ליהודים בלבד.
זה לא חל עליי.

Konrad said...

SPEAKING OF INSPIRING, I just saw an underwear commercial in which a woman drives across a desert in a 1970 Camaro SS with a license plate that reads, “Dress2kill.” The woman stops for a female hitch-hiker and demands her dress. The hitch-hiker refuses, so the first woman ties her up, throws her in the trunk, and looks for a place in the desert to murder and bury her. The car is followed by a flock of ravens that wait to feast on the latest victim’s body. The commercial ends with the killer having buried her latest victim and standing with her shovel.

Feminists do not complain about this commercial, since complaints would be “anti-Semitic.”

The commercial was done by a clothing company called Castro, located in Tel Aviv.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qzrQTHWfxxw

Andrew Anderson said...

Yes, we definitely need more of this in our lives. Konrad

You miss quite a lot of nuance such as the Amorites were given 430 years to repent but didn't.

Also, the WHY of God's wrath such as the mistreatment of widows, orphans, aliens, etc.

But bad stuff happens regardless of belief or disbelief in the Old Testament.

I'd like to believe it's preventable if we'll take justice seriously:

He has told you, O man, what is good;
And what does the LORD require of you
But to do justice,
to love kindness,
And to walk humbly with your God?
Micah 6:8

Konrad said...

I love it. Mass extermination of men, women, and children is simply "bad stuff."

Unless it (allegedly) happens to Jews, in which case we apologize to them by building ever-more numerous memorials all over the world.

Andrew Anderson said...

In Deuteronomy we read that Jews are commanded to murder everyone (including their own children) who fail to worship the Jewish God Yahweh. Konrad

Not so and this proves your reading of the Old Testament was shallow indeed. Only certain nationalities were to be exterminated and only if they remained in the Promised Land to be slaughtered. They were not to be given the option of conversion.

Nor were the surrounding nations expected to give up their gods either.

As for David and the Ammonites; it is very disturbing, I admit. However, that the Bible REPORTS something is not the same as CONDONING it and David was forbidden by God to build the Temple because he was a "man of blood".

Anyway, when it comes to the Old Testament you've revealed your incompetence and a tendency to rush to judgment. I suggest you read it again - as an adult - before you further embarrass yourself.

Meanwhile, I use the Old Testament to advance the cause of justice among those who should care: believing Jews and Christians.

Andrew Anderson said...

Here ya go Calgacus and other would-be slaves and slavers:

https://medium.com/basic-income/how-not-to-bungle-the-revolution-1870eabbfa23

Konrad said...

I should say that after I survived Sunday school, I ripped out the pages of the Jewish Old Testament and put them to good use.

Today I just use paper that comes in a roll.

Konrad said...

The Census Bureau projected that by 2045, less than half of the US population will be white.

However a new report says whites are disappearing much faster than that. For white people, deaths outnumber births in 26 US states, and the number of states keeps increasing.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/20/us/white-minority-population.html

Whites refused to adapt to the changing environment, and now Whites are moving faster and faster toward extinction.

It's nature’s way.

Calgacus said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Calgacus said...

AA: Thanks for another article.
But again, the UBI is a really, really stupid idea. Look, go ahead, try it. Maybe after it fails people will try to remember grade-school arithmetic before they make a giant less than half-baked plan for social reform.

The most basic reason that it won't work is because Basic Income is top-down, tyrannical, slavery. Guaranteed jobs are the opposite - touchy-feely groovy cooperation. Sure, if one thinks about it for only a second, it may look the other way. But two seconds of thought show that what I wrote is right.
Certified Great Thinkers & Moralists like Jesus, like Tolstoy got it right. Anybody would too if they bothered to read them.

I am still waiting for an answer to my question. Which do you want more?: Your ideas to be enacted OR A JG NOT be enacted. Looks like you dislike the JG for some reason - more than you like your own ideas. More than you respect Jesus's words.

You say your ideas are so great that there would be no need for a JG. But then why not just have one, wear a belt and suspenders, just in case? What could be the harm of a JG that nobody uses?