(Draft of section to be added to my upcoming text, Recessions: Volume I.) This section was written just before the final formatting work of the text. At the time of writing, economic activity has contracted in an alarming fashion, as a result of the decisions by authorities to restrict movements to prevent the spread of the viral disease termed COVID 19.
It is somewhat interesting timing to release a book on recessions near the inception of what is projected to be the most rapid contraction of economic activity recorded in modern history. The question that a casual reader would ask: did I predict this recession? The answer is that I did not do so (except perhaps too late to do anything useful about the prediction). This is not too disconcerting for me, as the thesis of my book is that recessions are inherently hard to predict using economic models....
Bond Economics
Introductory Section For Recessions: Volume IBrian Romanchuk
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