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Syria girl was tweeting anti-vax conspiracy theories, so I said we are all going to get covid-19 anyway, so I would sooner have the dead stuff rather than the live stuff.
Sorry Peter but that’s just wrong. Covid is not the flu. Less tha 5% of people with flu get hospitalized and less than 1% die. 15-20 % of covid patients are hospitalized half in Intensive care. Probably will end twice as lethal as flu when all testing can be done. Completely different animal
2 work colleagues tested pos for covid (I’m in healthcare). these are mid 40 healthy people. Both had severe flu like symptoms, neither progressed to shortness of breath, for over TEN DAYS. Neither could have worked for two weeks. No one I know has ever had flu for more than 3-5 days.
So we lament a planned removal of people from economy for a month yet unplanned random removals of people for 10-14 days won’t be more disruptive? How’s your business gonna handle 25-50 your workforce unable to work for 10-14 days. Certain work environments are perfect environments for fast spread of this too.
Anecdotes aside, it is a flu that primarily affects elderly people. Unlike influenza, which claims lives from all age groups, and for which we don't shut down the economy. When all is said and done, more people will die as a result of the shutdown and its aftereffects, than from the pandemic. Statistics will bear this out if anyone is still paying attention. In the here and now, the numbers being reported are orders of magnitude below the hysterical claims made one month ago. They may even turn out to be below a bad flu season. China did not know what they were dealing with; now we know. This was a false alarm.
Developing a vaccine without proper testing is irresponsible. Advocating vaccination for a disease whose transmissibility and lethality are unknown, is more of the same.
But Greg would probably point out its not just the % hospitalizations or % fatalities its also the absolute # of hospitalizations as our REAL infrastructure can only accommodate a maximum # of patients..
"real terms"... same as we deal with the "out of money!" morons on all the time..
I don’t doubt that all numbers will be adjusted as we know the true spread of virus to this point but there is also evidence that many deaths and hospital visits prior to early March were probably covid related as well. So while we probably have had millions more cases than we know, many of those were hospitalized in past for flu or FUO (fever of unknown origin) a very common diagnosis.
We now have 40+ people from one jail (inmates and guards) half on ventilators. This shit spreads like wildfire under right conditions, like street parties, sporting events, concerts, church cookouts .
Taiwan and those countries that were prepared, flattened the curve and saved lives. The rest have failed. Next pandemic may be the real deal, as it was a century ago. If we don't hold our leaders accountable, they won't be prepared next time.
This stuff spreads quickly with right conditions, it keeps its host infected and able to spread for a long time and when you do get sick it can be for up to 2 weeks!
In a lot of ways it’s the perfect pandemic virus. If you incapacitate too quickly your host can’t spread you around . It is already having next generation strains so true herd immunity might be impossible.
Are you asking what are the phenotype changes? I’ve seen articles that talk about how those little spikes (act as keys to unlock cell wall of desired host cell) are altered in some collected samples. Altered in way to make harder to get at “key”.
These alterations are always expected at some point, it seemed some were alarmed at changes at this early phase.
The manpower dedicated to this and the modern Information age results in many people making many findings/comments that get reported It’s these guys thinking out loud.
20 comments:
OK I`m being picky there, but I think the Italy-UK team is working on a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. If not, they`d be wasting their time :(
Think of it like this :)
HIV (HIV vaccine) | AIDS (the disease)
SARS-CoV-2 (SARS-CoV-2 vaccine) | Covid-19 (the disease)
PS: Trivia note :) The polio vaccine was 50 years in the making :((
No vaccine for me please.
Using other technology to develop vaccine today compared to when polio vaccine meaning it can take less time.
"Using other technology to develop vaccine today compared to ..."
S, youre back up to a solid 3.5 keep up the good work...
Syria girl was tweeting anti-vax conspiracy theories, so I said we are all going to get covid-19 anyway, so I would sooner have the dead stuff rather than the live stuff.
If you hadn't felt the need to take a flu vaccine, there's no need to take this one. That's not anti-vax, it's common sense.
Sorry Peter but that’s just wrong. Covid is not the flu. Less tha 5% of people with flu get hospitalized and less than 1% die. 15-20 % of covid patients are hospitalized half in Intensive care. Probably will end twice as lethal as flu when all testing can be done. Completely different animal
2 work colleagues tested pos for covid (I’m in healthcare). these are mid 40 healthy people. Both had severe flu like symptoms, neither progressed to shortness of breath, for over TEN DAYS. Neither could have worked for two weeks. No one I know has ever had flu for more than 3-5 days.
So we lament a planned removal of people from economy for a month yet unplanned random removals of people for 10-14 days won’t be more disruptive? How’s your business gonna handle 25-50 your workforce unable to work for 10-14 days. Certain work environments are perfect environments for fast spread of this too.
. “15-20 % of covid patients are hospitalized“
Greg did you take a look at that Stanford study I posted up thread.
They were looking at how many % people had been exposed and are saying the number is a lot higher than first believed...
Anecdotes aside, it is a flu that primarily affects elderly people. Unlike influenza, which claims lives from all age groups, and for which we don't shut down the economy. When all is said and done, more people will die as a result of the shutdown and its aftereffects, than from the pandemic. Statistics will bear this out if anyone is still paying attention. In the here and now, the numbers being reported are orders of magnitude below the hysterical claims made one month ago. They may even turn out to be below a bad flu season. China did not know what they were dealing with; now we know. This was a false alarm.
Developing a vaccine without proper testing is irresponsible. Advocating vaccination for a disease whose transmissibility and lethality are unknown, is more of the same.
“ . 15-20 % of covid patients are hospitalized”
iow the Stanford study implying the denominator here is a lot higher than believed
Without antibody testing, the metrics are missing. What we have is the number of new cases, deaths, and population.
Pete yeah we need to know who has antibodies...
But Greg would probably point out its not just the % hospitalizations or % fatalities its also the absolute # of hospitalizations as our REAL infrastructure can only accommodate a maximum # of patients..
"real terms"... same as we deal with the "out of money!" morons on all the time..
This is why it's different this time, Peter Pan:
https://twitter.com/EWErickson/status/1251113801384185858/photo/1
"Using other technology to develop vaccine today compared to when polio vaccine meaning it can take less time."
S400, here's as excellent podcast channel about viruses:
This Week in Virology: either in apple podcasts (free) or online (https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/)
Episode 602: Coronavirus immunology with Stanley Perlman (Carver College of Medicine, Dept. of Microbiology and Immunology)
I don’t doubt that all numbers will be adjusted as we know the true spread of virus to this point but there is also evidence that many deaths and hospital visits prior to early March were probably covid related as well. So while we probably have had millions more cases than we know, many of those were hospitalized in past for flu or FUO (fever of unknown origin) a very common diagnosis.
We now have 40+ people from one jail (inmates and guards) half on ventilators. This shit spreads like wildfire under right conditions, like street parties, sporting events, concerts, church cookouts .
Taiwan and those countries that were prepared, flattened the curve and saved lives. The rest have failed. Next pandemic may be the real deal, as it was a century ago. If we don't hold our leaders accountable, they won't be prepared next time.
"This shit spreads like wildfire"
This assessment is result of functional analysis not stochastic analysis...
A functional understanding is ALWAYS superior to any type of stochastic analysis...
Stochastic can somewhat be used as a tipoff that the person dispensing it doesnt really understand what is really happening...
This is the real deal Peter
This stuff spreads quickly with right conditions, it keeps its host infected and able to spread for a long time and when you do get sick it can be for up to 2 weeks!
In a lot of ways it’s the perfect pandemic virus. If you incapacitate too quickly your host can’t spread you around . It is already having next generation strains so true herd immunity might be impossible.
Good pod. Thanks.
" It is already having next generation strains"
What characterized the "next generation"?
iow how are they describing the genetic changes for their 'next generation'?
Are you asking what are the phenotype changes? I’ve seen articles that talk about how those little spikes (act as keys to unlock cell wall of desired host cell) are altered in some collected samples. Altered in way to make harder to get at “key”.
These alterations are always expected at some point, it seemed some were alarmed at changes at this early phase.
The manpower dedicated to this and the modern Information age results in many people making many findings/comments that get reported
It’s these guys thinking out loud.
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