Saturday, April 18, 2020

The best coronavirus summary so far — Andrew Gelman

I’d still go with this article by Ed Yong, which covers biology, epidemiology, medicine, and politics. Here’s one bit:
Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
The best coronavirus summary so far
Andrew Gelman | Professor of Statistics and Political Science and Director of the Applied Statistics Center, Columbia University

17 comments:

S400 said...

It appears to be solved.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2s0nB2VPvs

Kaivey said...

He looks like the Devil to me!

Matt Franko said...

"Yong was awarded Bachelor of Arts and Master of Arts degrees in Natural Sciences (Zoology) from the University of Cambridge in 2002."

Not qualified...

Matt Franko said...

Here first paragraph:

"In March, as the virus launched several simultaneous assaults ..."

lastgreek said...

"It appears to be solved.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2s0nB2VPvs"

Blow! The wind of God!

That was both entertaining and crazy... in a MAGA way sorta way;)

lastgreek said...

"Not qualified..."

What about a coronavirus panel led by slumlord Jared Kushner and the Orange Turd's grifter daughter Ivanka Trump?

lastgreek said...
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lastgreek said...

I almost forgot...

Thanks for the excellent link, Tom.

Second, I follow Dr. Angela Rasmsussen's twitter feed; she's a virologist at Columbia. She has been posting Ed Yong's articles. Why? According to her, Ed Yong communicates the information of some of the best virologists -- all with plenty of science degrees and doctorates, Matt -- in the business in his articles. Just wanted you guys to know :)

lastgreek said...

What a difference just two weeks makes:

Greece vs Spain:

https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1251862370856636428/photo/1

Now imagine what a difference one month, let alone two, would have made :(

And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that's a pretty good job we've done. -- Orange Turd, February 26

Reported US coronavirus cases:

Feb. 18: 15 cases
Mar. 18: 8,736 cases
Apr. 18: 734,552 cases

Matt Franko said...

"communicates the information of some of the best virologists"

He creates figurative language that the other unqualified Art Degree people accept as some sort of non-scientific explanation for them... this sells magazines..

So he says "the virus is launching an assault!" and the other non-qualified can analogize this to perhaps physical warfare or some sort of violent activity they are familiar with and they accept that as information... but it is of no real value...

Meanwhile there is very complex abstractions (chemical reactions) that the biochemists are trained in understanding that is properly representative of what is really going on...

iow the people who are proceeding with purpose with a goal to eventually solve this problem, create either a therapy and/or vaccine, do not work in figurative language...

So I dont see any value in whatever figurative language this guy comes up with... its not helpful and adds no value...



Matt Franko said...

Its the same in Economics when the morons make the "govt as household" analogy...

Not qualified...

The problem is not that these morons are choosing the improper subject for the analogy (in this case a household).. the problem is using analogy itself...

using figurative language is not how technically competent/qualified/mature people operate..

lastgreek said...

"using figurative language is not how technically competent/qualified/mature people operate.."

Competent? Qualified? Mature?

What? Have you ever watched any of the president's WH briefings? Choose any one. In all of them, he comes across as a deranged buffoon. The president of the United States, a deranged buffoon, in charge of your country's pandemic response -- and you're stuck up on some figurative language by some writer?

PS: Why won't someone in the deranged buffoon's administration correct him that the 1918 pandemic was in 1918 and not in 1917 as he keeps repeating at every damn WH briefing? Oh wait. I figured out why. Why bother -- deranged buffoon, you know :(

Matt Franko said...

" he comes across as a deranged buffoon. "

oh come on... greek you have what is called Trump Derangement Syndrome... seek psychological counseling...

Matt Franko said...

" the 1918 pandemic was in 1918 and not in 1917"

WHO....CARES....


What about a potential 2023 pandemic...


"dont skate to where the puck was skate to where the puck is going to be..."

Your point about these dates in history is only important to a Art Degree in History MORON who has to memorize this otherwise USELESS information (at the same time retarding their ability for abstract thought) to get an A in the class...

That date is NO VALUE ADDED...

lastgreek said...

"oh come on... greek you have what is called Trump Derangement Syndrome... seek psychological counseling..."

Please don't make me quote excerpts of his WH briefings. Please :(

OFF TOPIC article, but fascinating :)

Paramedic ants' observed treating injured comrades

The social insects have been seen cleaning wounds and possibly administering antibiotics to prevent infection

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/feb/14/nursing-in-nature-matabele-ants-observed-treating-injured-comrades

(h/tp: Massimo@Rainmaker1973)

lastgreek said...

"Your point about these dates in history is only important to a Art Degree in History MORON who has to memorize this otherwise USELESS information...That date is NO VALUE ADDED... "

Matt,

The War of 1811 -- remember that one?

Who started the Revolutionary War of 1775?

YESTERDAY, December 7, 1940 a date which will live in infamy the United States of America was suddenly and deliberately attacked by naval and air forces of the Empire of Japan.

Sorry, I just couldn't help it ;)

Greg said...

I sort of get where you are coming from Matt. Trump doesn’t care about accuracy of that stuff nor does his base. He uses his ignorance as a diversion to accomplish other things. But the problem, which even you should be concerned with, is that this is promoting an anti know,edge/science attitude. The only thing that matters to these folks is being boss and creating the perfect god fearing, capitalism loving, unboern baby protecting, American jobs first, foreigner blaming utopia. Problem is none of their notions about what those look like are either accurate or attainable. It sort of becomes about just fighting for it continuously. You profess a love of science ( or hatred of artists) but arent using inference to see where this is leading. More specifically where these policies can’t possibly lead. It’s all magical thinking


Just for arguments sake, would you give Joe Biden the same leeway if at one his rallies he said something like “Well the Fed has been in existence since 1912” or “We haven’t had a gold standard since Johnson closed the gold window in 1972”.