In time the Coronavirus could evolve into being less deadly, but it's not guaranteed.
Although the evidence is still accruing, early estimates from Nervtag, the UK’s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group, suggest that B117 may be around 30% more deadly.
But perhaps this is a single exception to an otherwise well-observed rule, and we can still be confident that SARS-CoV-2 will slowly fade away to obscurity. So what is the evidence for this view? And how confident can we be in predicting how evolution will shape the relationship between a pathogen and its host?
Will coronavirus really evolve to become less deadly?
5 comments:
Something for you vaccine enthusiasts to think about before trying to jab everyone:
This chicken vaccine makes its virus more dangerous
and
Imperfect Vaccination Can Enhance the Transmission of Highly Virulent Pathogens
So, are you saying we shouldn't ever use vaccines?
We shouldn't be mass vaccinating people with 'leaky' vaccines that allow transmission.
Even a perfect vaccine has no hope of eradicating a zoonotic pathogen, which is the case with this virus, whether it came from the wild or a laboratory.
Becoming more contagious is a better strategy in most circumstances. So we observe relatively few deadly outbreaks with regard to pandemics.
Yet it's well known that having lots of corpses lying around is bad for public health. That situation is a vector for spreading disease.
Vaccines are the only humane and timely way out of the Pandemic, save the virus petering out on its own. A possibility as described. But until then we just don't go without vaccines. They have and will continue to save the lives of many people and prevent even more hospitalizations. They slow things down helping to prevent local HC facilities from being over run. If the virus continues with ongoing virulent mutations, then we are stuck with edited vaccinations on an unknown interval.
We shouldn't be mass vaccinating people with 'leaky' vaccines that allow transmission. Peter Pan
Exactly. The analogy is with the overuse/misuse of antibiotics breeding super bacteria that antibiotics no longer work against.
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