Tuesday, January 29, 2019

Dean Baker — Trump Is Confused Again, Thinks His Trade War Is Responsible for China's Economic Problems

Not just Trump but also the US media and pundits. Dean Baker points out that it is false.

Moreover, so far China "problem" is that the economy has slowed by a tenth of a percentage point per year, from an estimated 6.5% to 6.4%. China growth is projected to slow to 6.2% in 2019. The horror of it!

More wishful thinking aka magical thinking.

The factor that is most significant is the deceleration rather than the growth rate. It is true that the declaration is happening faster than expected and this can result in some issues for the Chinese leadership.

The question is how successfully they can address emergent challenges in their project to transform the Chinese economy to a domestic consumption-led growth plan from an export investment-led growth strategy.

Beat the Press
Trump Is Confused Again, Thinks His Trade War Is Responsible for China's Economic Problems
Dean Baker | Co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, D.C

See also
China’s GDP growth in 2018 was 6.6%, its lowest annual growth rate in more than two decades, and the rate is expected to slow further this year. What is driving the slow-down in Chinese growth and what are the implications for Chinese policymakers and the global economy? This post reviews the blogosphere’s take.
The only one of interest is Yu Yongding's.

Western commentators are clueless.
But as Krugman writes, “the other day I issued a warning about the Chinese economy… unfortunately, the other day was six years ago”.
Bruegel
Chinese growth: A balancing act
Konstantinos Efstathiou






1 comment:

Ralph Musgrave said...

He also thinks the current cold snap in the middle of the US is evidence against global warming....:-)