Thursday, January 17, 2019

P.H. Yu — America Must Face Reality on China


As the US is trying to do with China now, Britain tried to constrain the rise of its former colony become competitor. That didn't turn out so well. The US should take note.

China is now pursuing a similar catch up and surpass policy that the US used against Great Britain, namely, "the American system of Hamilton and Clay," or "the national system "of Friedrich List. "Follow the leader," aka "leapfrogging."

Project Syndicate
America Must Face Reality on China
P.H. Yu | Chairman of the Council of the Institute of New Structural Economics at Peking University

See also
Depending on what exchange rate you use for comparing GDP, China either already has a larger GDP than the US (using a purchasing power parity exchange rate) or will soon have a larger GDP than the US (using a market exchange rate). Stepping outside the economic issues here to the subject of international relations, does this higher GDP translate into greater international power? Michael Beckley tackles this question in "The Power of Nations Measuring What Matters," appearing in the Fall 2018 issue of International Security (43:2, pp. 7–44)
I am not convinced. The assumptions and parameters of the analysis are too gross and too limited. It's more complicated and more nuanced.

The bottom line is that countries that are more developed economically are able mount state of the art military technology at scale.  Russia is not as developed as the US economically but it a peer militarily and ahead of the US in some aspects of technology. While China is not yet a military peer, it is catching up and is ahead in some areas. Both Russia and China have mounted MAD deterrence based on advanced technological capability.

Conversable Economist
How Does China's Higher GDP Translate into National Power?
Timothy Taylor | Managing editor of the Journal of Economic Perspectives, based at Macalester College in St. Paul, Minnesota

2 comments:

Ryan Harris said...

China will surpass the US military in many systems within a year or two. They appear to be emulating the US growth model of a financial--militarized economy rather than a consumer economy like Europe because it is easier for the central government to assert control over the growth rate and population.

Not all bad. The Chinese aren't Territorially aggressive like the Europeans and Indians.

Noah Way said...

China's military growth is solely to counter US aggression. As true capitalists they would rather spend money on making money.